Emerging Europe Economics Update ANO victory = looser fiscal stance, hawkish CNB The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would PM Takaichi mean for Japan? We doubt that incoming PM Sanae Takaichi will prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates altogether though her victory makes it less likely that the Bank will hike this year. In fact, any... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The Bank should be less worried about high inflation The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting emphasised upside inflation risks. Our sense is that these risks won’t be realised, and so the Bank will gradually come round to... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria reforms, Ghana and Kenya inflation President Tinubu used his Independence Day address this week to talk up recent improvements in GDP growth and the balance of payments position. He also celebrated the jump in tax revenue this year... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep hawks, Colombia-US rift intensifies The hawkish tone accompanying the Colombian central bank (BanRep)’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% this week supports our view that there’s much less room for easing in Colombia... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector cheers RBI reforms The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% this week but struck a fairly dovish tone, suggesting that further interest rate cuts are still likely in the coming months. The... 3rd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The pick up in headline inflation in Turkey last month, to 33.3% y/y, was driven in large part by another rise in food inflation and, with core inflation continuing to drop back, we think that the... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ tilt points to October rate hike While BoJ Governor Ueda acknowledged that Japan’s economy has so far shrugged off the impact of higher US tariffs, he warned that downside risks persist. Nonetheless, with the Governor admitting that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2025) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by 100bp, to 21.00%, and we expect that policymakers will continue to loosen monetary policy over the rest of this year and into 2026 as... 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
India Economics Update RBI opens door to further policy easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep the repo rate on hold at 5.50% today but has left the door open for a resumption in the easing cycle over the coming months. We still expect the repo rate... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut rates by 50bp next week Although financial markets aren’t fully convinced, we believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower its policy rate by 50bp at its meeting ending on 8 th October. With the output gap deeply... 1st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
