Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% in early-2026 While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2025) While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold today was all but a foregone conclusion, the Bank’s more hawkish messaging raises the risk that it won’t cut rates as far and/or as quickly as we’re... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak economy to prompt more policy support The economy seems destined for a period of weak growth amid the US tariff shock and much lower immigration. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.0% next year, with a further rise in the... 29th September 2025 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained resilient... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Contrary to consensus expectations for growth to stabilise, we expect growth in... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The hawkish communications from the Bank of Israel (BoI), as it left its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, suggest that expectations for interest rate cuts this year may be disappointed. While we... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to offset drag from immigration curbs We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI... 29th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB "in a good place", for now... We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than... 29th September 2025 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace of disinflation The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting. 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP... 26th September 2025 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Europe Outlook – Why the ECB could cut rates in 2026 2nd October 2025, 3:00PM BST The ECB insists interest rates are "in a good place", but it's a view which we think will shift in the coming year.
Africa Economic Outlook Looser monetary policy, stronger growth Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 26th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Will the weak rupee constrain the RBI? The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision next week is likely to be a close call. While the weakness of the rupee is a consideration for the bank, external vulnerabilities are far smaller... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
