Latin America Economics Focus Why Banxico’s next move will be a hike The recent patch of soft inflation in Mexico is unlikely to be sustained and the headline rate will follow a higher path than the central bank (Banxico) anticipates. With Banxico likely to revise up... 8th September 2026 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Update Why QT may influence gilt yields for years to come A further slowdown of Quantitative Tightening (QT) may relieve some of the recent upward pressure on gilt yields, but only temporarily. And although QT is making the public finances less sensitive to... 8th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Respite for bonds may be limited and uneven We expect German bunds to fare well in the medium term, almost regardless of what the ECB says this week. But US Treasuries aren’t likely to get the same relief. 7th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada joins the hawks The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish message this week, but the latest labour market data suggest that it will be in no rush to normalise policy. 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed destined to be behind the curve? The economic indicators this week suggest that the economy and labour market are humming along while firms are increasingly concerned about inflation risks. Nonetheless, the communications from Fed... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets turn increasingly hawkish in Poland The strength of the GDP and inflation figures out of Poland this week, alongside rising energy prices, have led investors to price in 75bp of interest rate hikes over the next year. While our base... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The art of the oil deal, BCCh’s growth worries The US-Venezuela oil deal has made a splash this week, but we it seems unlikely that it will result in a major pick-up in Venezuelan oil production in the near-term. Elsewhere, the sharp drop in the... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese firms continue to weather energy shock The Japanese economy has continued to shrug off the energy shock. Corporate profit margins rose to a record high in Q2, while industrial production held up well in July as supply shortages eased. That... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this month With the economy still growing around trend and trimmed mean inflation showing no signs of slowing, the upside risks to inflation that the RBA has been worried are starting to crystallise. We now... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s tolerance for above-target inflation close to the limit While the Fed’s inflation misses over the past two years are primarily due to unanticipated shocks, the FOMC has arguably also become more accepting of above-target inflation as it seeks to balance... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) With inflation and the resulting drag on households’ real incomes yet to peak, we doubt the surprising resilience of activity in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of this... 3rd September 2026 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia Monetary Policy Meeting (September 2026) 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s hawkish message brings 2026 hike into play The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message today, saying “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and that it is “prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”. We do not view this as a... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
