Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to sit this tightening cycle out The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today was in line with economists’ and investors’ expectations. But in contrast to the prevailing view in the market that the Bank will hike rates at... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus How might a US fiscal crisis play out? The ideal solution to the unsustainable fiscal situation is that Congress commits to a gradual fiscal adjustment. But as that seems unlikely, the big risk is that the Fed eventually finds itself in a... 23rd September 2026 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but that’s probably the end of the cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) chose to restart monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to 7.25% today, but the commentary suggests that this hiking cycle may already be over. Higher energy prices... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) The smaller-than-expected rise in South African inflation in August, to 4.4% y/y, and signs of softer underlying inflation pressures will be welcome news for SARB officials. It will be a close call... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rate hikes nearing their end The RBA will deliver another 25bp hike in September, given continued stickiness in underlying inflation. But unlike markets we doubt further tightening will prove necessary. With the labour market... 23rd September 2026 · 20 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Bank Indonesia left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and, so long as the recent falls in the rupiah don’t morph into a sharp sell-off, we think interest rates will be left unchanged over the... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) After a very strong first half of the year, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth should still average an impressive 7% from 2026-2028. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon... 22nd September 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update More easing to follow CBN’s bumper rate cut The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) surprise decision to cut its policy rate by 350bp today, to 23.00%, underlines its confidence that the disinflation process will continue over the coming months... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: new inflation target points to long rate pause Hungary’s central bank opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today, and the decision to lower the inflation target to 2.5% from 2028 argues for a more cautious approach to renewed rate cuts... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today and the easing cycle will probably be on pause through the rest of this year as the central bank introduces a new... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: subsidies help absorb the oil price shock Fuel subsidies and price controls have stopped high oil prices from feeding into inflation across Asia’s largest economies. But this has not eliminated inflation concerns altogether and, in India and... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch One more and done for the RBA With some of the upside inflation risks it had warned about now crystallising, the RBA is almost certain to hike rates by 25bp at its September meeting. However, we believe that will mark the end of... 22nd September 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EM central banks follow the Fed? While a handful of EM central banks (e.g. India, Czechia, Mexico) are likely to hike interest rates in the coming months, they will be doing so for domestic reasons not because of the Fed. More... 21st September 2026 · 4 mins read
