Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (June) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, and we think that further monetary easing is unlikely this year. That is a slightly more hawkish view than the consensus, which... 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement (June) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, but the dovish commentary from the press conference supports our view that further easing is likely over the coming months. 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May 2025) With price pressures easing markedly in May, the RBA may well front-load monetary easing to a greater degree than we’re predicting. 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The latest data suggest that the boost to industry and trade from businesses front-running US tariffs is over. Manufacturing activity softened in April and May, and new orders have weakened. While... 24th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed's Powell offers no hint of near-term rate cut Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s prepared semi-annual testimony to the House today offered no hint that a rate cut is coming any time soon. Despite the recent dovish comments from Trump-appointed Governors... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2025) The Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by a smaller 0.21% m/m on average in May, with the three-month annualised rate declining to 3.0%, but that is probably still too high... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun 2025) The jump in Mexican inflation to 4.5% in the middle of this month won’t be enough to prevent Banxico from proceeding with a (clearly-signalled) 50bp interest rate cut at its meeting later this week... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June) 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Services inflation set to surpass goods inflation Prices of public services and rents are rising at the fastest pace in years, which supports our view that inflation will remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target even as the impact of the post... 24th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession –... 23rd June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney plays hardball on US trade deal A US-Canada trade deal centered on lowering the most onerous US duties, like those on steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, would not stop the economy from slowing later this year, but it would improve... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian... 20th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: More policy support coming in Korea More policy support in Korea looks to be on its way soon. The minutes from the Bank of Korea’s May meeting, point to more rate cuts over the coming months. Meanwhile, the new government has announced... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read