ECB Watch ECB Watch: Deliberately informative The account of July’s ECB meeting revealed that Christine Lagarde’s messaging in the press conference was “deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions”. We set ourselves a slightly... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: is growing ‘euroisation’ a concern? The increase in euro-denominated bank lending and deposits across parts of CEE in recent years – due in part to high domestic inflation and interest rates – looks like a concern on the surface, but... 4th September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Versus the Euro-zone in Charts Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (September 2025) 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.75%, but we think that monetary easing over the coming year will be smaller than most anticipate. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Sweden GDP forecast Despite the strong rebound in Q2, Sweden’s economy has fared worse so far this year than many expected. We now forecast it to grow only moderately over the remainder of the year, before returning to... 3rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The continued decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 33.0% y/y, keeps the door open to large interest rate cuts at the central bank’s meeting next Thursday. That said, with inflation coming in a... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 2025) Activity rebounded strongly in Q2, and for all the right reasons. The pickup in domestic demand raises the risks that the RBA won’t loosen policy as aggressively as we’re predicting. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan will continue to shrug off global trade tensions GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace as external demand softens. However, with consumption growth still healthy and underlying inflation set to remain... 3rd September 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Update The implications of the Court of Appeals ruling on tariffs In the wake of the Court of Appeals’ decision upholding a lower court finding that Trump exceeded his executive powers by imposing sweeping universal and reciprocal tariffs, this Update answers key... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How crucial is central bank independence? President Trump’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has revived a broader debate about the value of central bank independence. The strength of the evidence in... 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Profits will hold up better than the Bank of Japan expects While the Bank of Japan is worried that trade tensions will weigh on profits, business investment and wage growth, profits have in fact held up well so far and we expect that to remain the case going... 2nd September 2025 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2025) The much-stronger-than expected Q2 Turkish GDP growth figure of 1.6% q/q (driven by domestic demand) is likely to make the central bank tread cautiously and suggests that the risks to our hawkish... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem signals fine tuning of Bank framework Speaking at Banco de Mexico’s 100th anniversary event this week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem steered clear of discussing the economic or policy outlook. However, he offered some useful hints... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump cooking up a storm at the Fed This week the CBO published updated projections showing that tariffs are now expected to raise $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, which would almost exactly offset the impact of the budget... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
