Bank of Canada Watch Elevated oil prices to give BoC meeting a hawkish tilt The improved growth backdrop and nascent threat of higher inflation expectations means the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold again but likely take a more hawkish tone at its meeting next week. 22nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) The economic fallout from events in the Middle East is developing broadly in line with our baseline scenario, leaving WTI on track to average $80/barrel in the second half of the year. The reduced... 22nd April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Easing pressure on Turkey’s balance of payments since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced earlier this month gave the central bank (CBRT) space to leave policy settings unchanged today (with the one... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) South Africa’s Reserve Bank will welcome last month’s soft inflation outturn of 3.1% y/y but adjustments to administered fuel prices will cause inflation to jump in April. Even so, the headline rate... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (April 2026) Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% today as officials’ concerns about the weakness of the rupiah countered its desire to support economic growth. So long as the rupiah doesn’t come... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March (consensus and CE forecast 3.3%) was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about whether the leap in energy... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2026) The energy shock will knock around 0.5%-pts off India’s GDP growth this year and push headline inflation to a peak of close to 6%. But we think the RBI will refrain from raising interest rates unless... 21st April 2026 · 0 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will wait until June before hiking again While the Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged next week, we suspect it will judge that risks to economic activity are tilted to the downside for now. While that would normally point to a... 20th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Bonds Update EZ spreads won’t rise by much despite high debt levels A sustained re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would probably mean euro-zone bond spreads narrow a bit further this year. What’s more, our base case is that spreads in Italy and France will remain... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA hawkishness, new DA leader, Kenya macro strains The warnings from SARB Governor Kganyago about a potential policy misstep amidst rising inflation suggest that it's more hawkish than we previously though. But today’s renewed optimism on the US-Iran... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Jakarta & Manila unlikely to follow Singapore in tightening The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened its policy stance this week, but we doubt that central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines will follow suit next week – both are likely to keep rates... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary votes for change The macroeconomic impact of the landslide Tisza victory in Hungary is most likely to materialise over the medium term. More immediately, expectations for improved credibility policy and renewed access... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA caught between a rock and a hard place Although business confidence in Australia has plunged in the wake of the Iran war, indicators of underlying activity remain fairly resilient. With capacity pressures elevated and inflation risks... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will wait until June before tightening policy again Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled this week that a rate hike at the Bank’s April meeting is off the table. While there’s a risk of prolonged inaction, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over the... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
