US Rapid Response

US Fed Minutes (October 28-29)

The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 29 th October were unusually blunt, warning that “many” participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year...

19th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with...

19th November 2025 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2025)

Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth held up well in Q3, although headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour...

19th November 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon

Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026.

19th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025)

Although headline inflation in South Africa rose, to 3.6% y/y, last month, the decline in core inflation, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to give policymakers at the Reserve Bank confidence that they can meet...

19th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025)

Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a second consecutive meeting but the accompanying communications remained dovish and we still think there’s scope for further...

19th November 2025 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

India’s core inflation unlikely to rise much further

Headline inflation in India has fallen to a multi-decade low, but core inflation is currently at its highest in 18 months. But even if the economy continues to perform well as we expect, low household...

19th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ: One last cut for the road

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of...

19th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q3 2025)

The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 reflects continued strength in domestic demand and adds to reasons to expect the central bank to hold off resuming its easing...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q3 2025)

The surprise 0.1% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy was mainly due to weaker private consumption and exports and supports our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp in December...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Nov. 2025)

The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce the notion that the Bank will remain in wait and watch mode in the near term. While we still expect it to cut rates by another 50bp late next year...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil’s easing cycle likely to be deeper than most expect

Brazil’s monetary policy stance is extremely tight – the policy rate is at its highest level since the mid-2000s. With GDP growth likely to disappoint and inflation softening, there should be ample...

17th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What’s behind the weakness in Polish inflation?

The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last...

17th November 2025 · 12 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector...

14th November 2025 · 2 mins read