Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026)

The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its key policy rates unchanged today (rather than hike) confirms that it would take much more severe strains in the balance of payments than...

11th June 2026 · 2 mins read

BoE Watch

BoE Watch: BoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising rates

A hold on Thursday 18th June looks nailed on and we expect interest rates to stay at 3.75% for the rest of the year. But rate hikes in July and/or September can’t be ruled out. Either way, the...

11th June 2026 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year

The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year.

10th June 2026 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada not likely to hike any time soon

The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year.

10th June 2026 · 2 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Pace of tightening set to accelerate

BoJ Board members have signalled that they will lift the policy rate next week. And with inflationary pressures set to strengthen, the Bank will probably accelerate its tightening cycle thereafter. We...

10th June 2026 · 7 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Producer Prices (May)

The continued strength in producer price inflation makes it all but certain that the Bank of Japan will hike rates at its meeting next week. We also expect the Bank to speed up the pace of policy...

10th June 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (May 2026)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation, to 3.9% y/y in May, will be welcomed by Banxico and means that the policy rate is likely to remain at 6.50% in the foreseeable future.

9th June 2026 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will hold fire for now, but leave its options open

The RBA will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its meeting next Tuesday. With the economy showing signs of cooling, the Bank will likely signal a cautious approach to any further policy adjustment...

9th June 2026 · 7 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Emergency Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026)

9th June 2026 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed set to hike this year

With Fed officials sounding more hawkish than we originally anticipated and downside labour market risks rapidly diminishing, we now expect the Fed to hike interest rates this year.

5th June 2026 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Growth risks outweighed by inflation and FX concerns

The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today and maintained a “neutral” stance. But the very strong Q1 GDP data (released subsequently), along with rising inflation and continued worries about...

5th June 2026 · 3 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026)

Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline...

5th June 2026 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections

Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades...

5th June 2026 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Crazy Irish GDP numbers; “ethical” US tariffs?

We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile...

5th June 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

BoE may not follow the ECB

The latest evidence appears to support our view that the weakness of the labour market will prevent the second-round inflation effects that the Bank of England fears. If so, then the Bank of England...

5th June 2026 · 6 mins read