Capital Daily Three questions for Treasuries in the Fed’s new era A sustained rally in Treasuries is, in our view, unlikely over the next year or so, given the macro backdrop and what we’ve heard from the first press conference under the new Fed Chair. 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026) Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp today, to 14.25%, and the accompanying statement appears to leave the door open to further rate cuts. 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opens the door to a hike as soon as September The median projection now points to a clear chance of the FOMC hiking and, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating “we’ve got some work to do on the price stability point”, we continue to expect the Fed to... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2026) The median FOMC projection now points to a clear risk of the FOMC hiking this year, but it is likely skewed toward the non-voting hawkish Fed presidents and would probably have pointed to unchanged... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are further EM rate hikes on the cards? The fall in oil prices has eased pressure on EM central banks to tighten monetary policy. But the latest CPI data show that inflation is not just being pushed up by energy prices; other components are... 17th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May 2026) The smaller-than-expected rise in South African inflation, to 4.5% y/y in May, alongside the drop in oil prices, reduces the likelihood that the Reserve Bank (SARB) follows up May’s 25bp hike with... 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026) If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting... 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation baked in regardless of US-Iran deal If the US-Iran deal holds and oil prices remain at their new, lower level, this will swiftly lower fuel inflation. However, this drag on headline inflation would be offset – outside the US, at least –... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate to a three decade high today and signalled less concern about downside risks to activity resulting from the Iran War. With inflation set to pick up as higher... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA leaves door ajar for further tightening While the Reserve Bank of Australia predictably left rates unchanged today, it clearly signalled that it was far too early for it to declare victory in its battle against inflation. With underlying... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2026) The Reserve Bank of Australia retained policy optionality when it kept rates unchanged at its meeting today. Our base case remains that the Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 16th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (June 26) The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to a three decade high today and we expect the Bank to accelerate the pace of tightening over the coming months. 16th June 2026 · 2 mins read
