Europe Rapid Response

Germany and Spain HICP (July)

The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Is EM central bank independence under threat?

Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed have brought the issue of central bank independence into the spotlight. This is not just a concern in the US but an issue that is rearing its head in a number of EMs...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Further easing on the cards

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has...

29th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut

The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the...

26th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth

Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Biden calls for AGOA extension, SA inflation

The 21st Forum on the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) took place in Washington this week with attention focussed on not only extending the legislation but also improving it in light of...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The risks to inflation from rising shipping costs

We think shipping costs would have to rise a lot further before having a significant bearing on consumer price inflation. Even so, the ongoing rise in shipping rates presents yet another upside risk...

26th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery

Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro...

26th July 2024 · 11 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (June)

Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target...

26th July 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Services inflation slowing but broadening

The data released this week on balance increase the risk that the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged next week. While household disposable income jumped in Q1, that reflected a one-off...

26th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy

A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Singapore Central Bank Policy Meeting (July)

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October.

26th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Tokyo CPI (July 24)

The sharp slowdown in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo this month reduces the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week, though we’re sticking to our...

26th July 2024 · 3 mins read