Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: Tepid growth for many as tariff threat looms We expect GDP growth across most of Asia to soften in 2025, with many countries likely to record below-consensus growth. The risk of escalating trade tensions remains a key concern, particularly for... 26th June 2025 · 28 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: Central banks to loosen further as recoveries falter Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New Zealand isn’t likely to be sustained. As the lull in activity lifts spare capacity, underlying price... 26th June 2025 · 20 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow Exports would almost certainly have weighed on China’s growth whatever happened this year, but US tariffs – even at their reduced rate – will worsen the drag. Fiscal support has been propping up... 25th June 2025 · 16 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 25th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May 2025) With price pressures easing markedly in May, the RBA may well front-load monetary easing to a greater degree than we’re predicting. 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The latest data suggest that the boost to industry and trade from businesses front-running US tariffs is over. Manufacturing activity softened in April and May, and new orders have weakened. While... 24th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2025) The Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by a smaller 0.21% m/m on average in May, with the three-month annualised rate declining to 3.0%, but that is probably still too high... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun 2025) The jump in Mexican inflation to 4.5% in the middle of this month won’t be enough to prevent Banxico from proceeding with a (clearly-signalled) 50bp interest rate cut at its meeting later this week... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Services inflation set to surpass goods inflation Prices of public services and rents are rising at the fastest pace in years, which supports our view that inflation will remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target even as the impact of the post... 24th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession –... 23rd June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025) June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2025) June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
