Canada Economics Weekly

Bank of Canada yet to shake off inflation risks

The US election outcome means that Canada and the US will not be trading friendship bracelets anytime soon and leaves the risks to inflation more finely balanced, but we still think that growth...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct' 24)

Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up for a second consecutive month, to 33.9% y/y in October, largely due to the impact of rising petrol prices. The CBN now appears to have little choice but...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors

State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Markets starting to anticipate December rate hike

The financial markets have finally come around to our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates once more before year-end. With domestic economic data mixed, that probably reflects the...

15th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2

We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (November 2024)

The latest data have shown some improvement in global activity with the US holding up well, the euro-zone exceeding weak expectations and China starting to respond to policy support. However, forward...

14th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (Oct. 2024)

The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s preferred core...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate accelerated from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.9% y/y in October, a fourth consecutive rise and the fastest pace of inflation since August 2023. We expect inflation...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures...

13th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy

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Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.

US Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The third consecutive 0.3% m/m gain in the core CPI in October is somewhat concerning, with our preliminary calculations pointing to another above-target-consistent 0.22 m/m gain in core PCE prices...

13th November 2024 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024)

Another bigger-than-expected jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince a majority of MPC members that conditions are not yet right to begin easing policy. We now...

12th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and...

12th November 2024 · 1 min read