Event

Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat?

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Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024)

The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024)

The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024)

The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Deflation risk to hang over the SNB

We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts

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Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation

The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter...

21st October 2024 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Is Brazil’s economy overheating?

Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while...

21st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for...

18th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates

A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines

Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 24)

While the resumption of electricity subsidies resulted in a plunge in headline inflation in September, inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose to a three-month high and should remain around 2%...

18th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary...

17th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Some good news on underlying inflation

The detailed breakdown of September’s inflation data, published this morning, showed that underlying price pressures softened slightly. We think that core inflation – and services inflation in...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read