Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (June 25) With output expanding at a healthy pace and price pressures set to remain relatively firm, we continue to believe the Bank of Japan will deliver its next rate hike sooner than most anticipate. 23rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Israel-Iran impact, US-Africa trade, DRC peace deal The Israel-Iran conflict has caused a jump in oil prices over the past week and there’s a clear risk of further escalation that pushes prices up even higher. That would spell bad news for most African... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Oil price risk to inflation, infrastructure spending hype With UK inflation still some way above the 2.0% target, it probably wouldn’t require the conflict in the Middle East to cause a leap in the oil price all the way to $130-150 per barrel to prompt the... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Middle-East conflict clouds ECB outlook Our base case remains that the Israel-Iran conflict eases, energy prices drop back and the ECB cuts rates one more time in this cycle. But if energy prices stay around their current levels further... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well so far, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or (in China's case) have avoided... 20th June 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Slowing migration may keep RBA in a dovish mood Australia's population growth has declined by nearly 1%-pt since its post-pandemic peak, driven in large part by a normalisation in international student arrivals. The drop in foreign student numbers... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly - No signs that trade tensions are weighing on inflation The Bank of Japan retained its downbeat outlook at this week’s meeting. But with the economic data holding up despite trade tensions and inflation set to overshoot the Board’s forecasts by a sizeable... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 25) Inflation is set to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts by a wide margin and we expect the Bank to resume its tightening cycle before the end of the year. 20th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (June 2025) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.0%) and we expect interest rates to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. In contrast, most other analysts are... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is... 18th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Downward trend in EZ services inflation will continue May’s steep decline in euro-zone services inflation was largely due to the timing of Easter. But looking through that effect, services inflation is on a downward trend that we expect to continue. 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May' 25.) The fact that South Africa’s headline inflation was unchanged at 2.8% y/y in May, lends more evidence that the SARB should be unworried about underlying price pressures in the economy. Coming... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared... 17th June 2025 · 1 min read
