Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians “[Consumers] look at how much they spend on their utility bill or their weekly food shop and conclude that these costs aren’t going down, so the cost of living crisis is still going on,” said Paul... 11th November 2024 · Financial Times
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some... 11th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in October means that the central bank is almost certain to deliver additional interest rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. The risks... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s Trump challenge Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Productivity & ULC (Q3) The BLS finally incorporated the upward revisions to its labour compensation estimates into the productivity and unit labour costs data, and the results are likely to trigger some inflation anxiety... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.8% y/y in October, was driven entirely by a jump in agricultural price inflation. Core inflation edged down last month which... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set for a slow disinflation process Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in... 5th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct. 2024) October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
