In the news

Pound falls as UK inflation declines more than expected to 1.7%

17th October 2024 · Financial Times

Global Economics Update

China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs

We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger...

16th October 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024)

The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate cuts by reducing rates by 25 basis points (bps) at both...

16th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2024)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI data reinforce our conviction that the RBNZ will loosen policy more aggressively than most are expecting.

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising

Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation...

15th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024)

The large downside surprise to headline inflation in September and muted monthly gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures support our view that the Bank of Canada will choose a more...

15th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep. '24)

Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up to 32.7% y/y in September, confirming that the CBN’s fears about upside risks from last month’s petrol price hikes were not misplaced. We think the CBN will...

15th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch from 1.6% y/y in August to 1.7% y/y in September, a third consecutive increase and the fastest pace of inflation since February. That said, we think...

15th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Residual seasonality something to note, not fear

Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Interest rates will be higher in this cycle

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep. 2024)

CPI inflation fell in September, as an increase in food inflation was outweighed by further decreases in energy and core inflation. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened further on the back of...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks

Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak

The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is...

11th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms

Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read