US Economics Weekly Shelter disinflation adds to case for September rate cut We were initially uncertain whether the notable slowdown in shelter inflation in June’s CPI report was the start of the long-awaited easing in housing inflation, but the latest all-tenant rent data... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina intervenes (again), Q2 shaping up to be weaker Argentine financial assets sold off this week after Economy Minister Caputo announced that the central bank will start to sell dollars in the parallel market. The plan shows that the government is... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services inflation still sticky, little Olympic cheer The full breakdown of the euro-zone’s June inflation data suggests that the recent stickiness of services inflation has not just been due to Taylor Swift’s concerts. An ECB rate cut in September still... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in the Union Budget The full Union Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on Tuesday - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. It will also give an... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ now likely to start cutting rates in August Given the recent slate of weak economic data we now expect the RBNZ to start loosening policy in August, rather than in November as we were previously predicting. For one thing, timely activity data... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB opens the door to rate cuts The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was of little surprise but there was increased optimism on the MPC that inflation is moving towards the 4.5% mid... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update September cut likely but ECB in no rush after that Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates were in line with expectations. The overall tone was arguably slightly dovish... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2024) EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Could Q2 inflation push the RBA to hike again? 1722405600 DM central banks may not be done raising rates – a too-hot Australian Q2 inflation report on 31st July could push the RBA to hike at its meeting
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Policy Rate (July 2024) Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut in Q4. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) CPI inflation stayed in line with the 2.0% target in June – exactly where the Bank of England thought it would be (consensus and CE forecasts 1.9%) – but the composition of inflation remains a problem... 17th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2024) Today’s CPI release confirms that inflation is all but certain to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target by Q3. In the context of an extremely weak economy and a rapidly loosening labour market, there is a... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core prices rose at an above-target monthly pace for the second month running in June. Nonetheless, with the Bank’s Business Outlook... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
