Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Sep) Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we now calculate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price measure increased by 0.24% m/m in September which, at 2.9% annualised, is a little hotter than... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid... 10th October 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep) Although core CPI prices increased by 0.3% m/m for a second consecutive month in September, our calculations suggest that core PCE prices increased by 0.20% m/m which, at an annualised pace, is only... 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September 2024) Core inflation in Norway was again below Norges Bank’s forecast in September, strengthening the case for it to start cutting interest rates this year. 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut? 1729173600 Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting.
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in September was mainly due to drought-related effects on food and electricity prices but, even so, it will reinforce the hawkishness of Copom... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The second consecutive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate, to 26.4% y/y in September, on the back of electricity and fuel price hikes further reduces the chances of a first interest rate cut... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on course for December rate cut The Reserve Bank of India’s new-look MPC voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today as expected but struck a less hawkish tone in its communications, which included a change in the official... 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
