Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update La Niña poses downside risks to inflation in SE Asia A La Niña could bring with it favourable growing conditions for crops in South East Asia, and help to put downward pressure on food prices across the region. It adds to the reasons to think the... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly The hawks come out in their droves Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing... 4th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in June marks the start of a new phase of the disinflation process, and we are likely to see much steeper falls in the y/y inflation rate in July... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June 2024) It already seemed unlikely that the ECB would cut interest rates at its meeting in July, and June’s inflation data – particularly the continued strength of services inflation – will reinforce... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs show recovery losing pace The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry lost some momentum at the end of Q2. While activity in emerging markets continued to grow strongly, industry was still... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
