Climate Economics Update EU faces “difficult second album” syndrome with ETS2 By seeking to extend the “polluter pays” principle to building owners and road users, the ‘sequel’ to the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme was always likely to run into public and political opposition... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into April's euro-zone inflation data April’s surprisingly large jump in services inflation appears to have been entirely an Easter timing effect that will reverse in May. Meanwhile, there are some near-term upside risks to headline... 19th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2025) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the EU at back of the queue for a trade “deal”? We suspect that the US and EU will reach an agreement to avert the 20% baseline US tariff which is scheduled to come into effect on 9th July - but we doubt that such an agreement is imminent... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Third time lucky for South Africa’s 2025 Budget? South Africa’s finance minister takes his third stab at delivering the 2025 Budget on Wednesday. Disputes within the ruling GNU seem to have been resolved but this may come at the cost of slippage on... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will delay further tightening until October The truce reached between China and the US over the weekend is a clear positive for Japan’s economy. Even so, we suspect that weak economic activity coupled with an impending plunge in inflation will... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Apr 2025) Despite fears raised by the slump in sentiment, retail sales edged up by 0.1% m/m in April, following a massive 1.7% m/m gain the month before. Admittedly, control group sales fell by 0.2% m/m last... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in April, its joint fastest pace in nearly two years. We think that inflation will hover around the 2.0-2.5% y/y range for much of this... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Apr 2025) The CPI data suggest that core PCE prices rose at a target-consistent rate in April for the second month running, although it is likely to be a different story this month as tariff effects start to... 13th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus A European defence revolution? Europe’s economy will receive a modest boost from the German-led rise in defence spending over the next couple of years. The bigger question is whether it is the start of a move towards creating a... 13th May 2025 · 23 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The slight fall in India’s consumer price inflation in April, which pushes it further below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) 4% target, supports our view that the central bank will press ahead with... 13th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr. 2025) Core inflation has recovered somewhat in recent months, even as headline inflation has slipped back into negative territory. But the outlook for underlying inflation is still deteriorating, with the... 11th May 2025 · 2 mins read
