Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2024)

The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 4.1% y/y, for the first half of June won’t change the picture that the central bank’s easing cycle is over – for this year at least.

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025

Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation...

26th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May 24)

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Consumers beginning to feel the pinch

We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but...

25th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (May 2024)

The stronger monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in May will give the Bank some cause for concern after starting its loosening cycle in June. However, with some of that...

25th June 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer

China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook.

25th June 2024 · 15 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Next government to benefit from economic tailwind

The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth...

25th June 2024 · 18 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024)

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

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Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (June 2024)

The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow...

24th June 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun. 2024)

The continued strength in core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of June, combined with the post-election slump in the peso and heightened political uncertainty, means that Banxico is...

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro

Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn

The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary...

21st June 2024 · 6 mins read