Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Central banks will shrug off oil price risks

With the price of crude oil continuing to climb higher, we could soon see a resurgence in fuel inflation in both Australia and New Zealand. However, if we’re right that any pickup in oil prices will...

8th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer...

8th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in LatAm, CEE

Wage growth remains strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE), and that has stalled the disinflation process in services in particular. This supports our view that, in general...

7th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Oil prices would need to jump further to influence BoE

While the Bank of England is watching the developments in the Middle East “very closely”, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the Bank could start cutting interest rates more aggressively if the good...

4th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Bank of Korea to begin easing cycle, oil price risks

With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. Meanwhile...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another...

4th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

Are the upside risks to core inflation mounting?

We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will return to the 2%target on a sustained basis early next year, as labour market conditions gradually ease. Up until recently we would also have argued...

3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks

The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Headline inflation will be below 2% next year

After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to...

3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira?

The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Assessing the impact of the drought in Brazil

Drought conditions across parts of Brazil are not yet at the stage where there is a threat of major disruptions to electricity supply, but it has already prompted electricity prices to be hiked and...

3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (September)

The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and supports our view that the Bank will cut its key policy rate by at least...

3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle...

3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

RBI Watch

New-look MPC will wait until December to cut rates

Little is known about the monetary policy views of the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming MPC members, but the fact that two of the committee’s doves have been replaced suggests that the repo rate will...

2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read