Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (June) Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still data dependent The May CPI data were a step back after the run of soft core price readings in the first quarter. The broader evidence stills seems supportive of a July interest rate cut, but the next CPI release for... 28th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (May) The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France, Italy & Spain HICP (June) Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively... 28th June 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in underlying inflation points to July rate hike The yen weakened to multi-decade lows against the dollar this week and the Bank of Japan is getting increasingly worried that rising import costs are creating upside risks to inflation. Indeed, the... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025 Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (June) The continued fall in the job-to-applicant ratio isn’t translating into a higher labour market and the bulk of the evidence suggests that the labour market has continued to tighten. And with... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Brazilian real at 30 Monday marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of Brazil’s currency, the real, as part of a stabilisation plan (the Plano Real) which successfully tamed runaway inflation. For other EMs facing... 27th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle moving into a new phase Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is... 27th June 2024 · 26 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth strengthened at the end of Q2, with our regional-weighted measure of sentiment... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
