Chief Economist's Note Key risks for 2026: What could go wrong (and right) next year? Last week I outlined the key macro themes that are likely to shape the global economy in 2026. This week I tackle a question that has come up frequently in subsequent client meetings: What are the key... 8th December 2025
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer slowdown, the “Trump Corollary” GDP data from Brazil released this week showed that the economy slowed in Q3 - a trend we expect to continue into 2026. While the Selic rate is all but certain to be left on hold on Wednesday, the... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep 2025) The delayed September PCE data showed that monthly core price growth was only marginally above the target-consistent rate, with the annual core inflation rate edging back down to 2.8%. Real... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (December 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 5th December 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Minimum wage hike another headwind to employment The 4.1% rise in the minimum wage scheduled for April 2026 will support wage growth, particularly for workers on lower incomes, but by further raising businesses’ labour costs it will probably... 5th December 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update RBI resumes easing cycle; one more rate cut to come The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today resumed its easing cycle and struck a fairly dovish tone. With inflation set to stay well-below target and growth set to ease over the coming quarters, we remain... 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Electoral forks in the road Latin America’s GDP growth is likely to slow a little in 2026 and, with inflation softening, monetary easing is likely to continue. The scale of rate cuts will vary across countries, with a large... 4th December 2025 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Strengthening growth and shifting alignments The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s... 4th December 2025 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in a few EMs Labour market conditions have weakened across much of the emerging world over recent months and wage growth is, on average, back in line with pre-pandemic rates. But there are wide regional variations... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch FOMC doves to prevail in contested vote We expect concerns over softening labour market conditions among the doves on the FOMC to win out next week, resulting in another 25bp cut. But in return, the more hawkish members are likely to secure... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Nov 2025) The sizeable fall back in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated next year, but by much less than implied by last month’s release. That... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The fall in Swiss inflation to zero will raise significant concerns in the SNB as officials had expected it to rebound and average 0.4% in Q4. This makes it more likely that the SNB will cut into... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The larger than expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 31.1% y/y, provides a green light for the central bank to continue its easing cycle at its meeting next Thursday. We maintain our... 3rd December 2025 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hold for the foreseeable future With inflation showing signs of persistence, activity recovering, and the labour market holding its own, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to deliver a hawkish hold at its meeting next week... 3rd December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: shifting towards interest rate hikes? There’s a growing debate about whether the Colombian central bank will hike rates. And several plausible triggers – from a pre-election spending spree to a bumper minimum wage hike – could tip the MPC... 2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
