ECB Watch

Slow and steady cuts by the ECB

The ECB looks set to cut its deposit rate from 3.00% to 2.75% next week and signal that further reductions are likely. But it will stop short of giving any precise guidance about the timing and scale...

23rd January 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2025)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 3.8% y/y, means that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle next month. But with the Fed set to pause its pause its cutting cycle...

23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank prepares the ground for rate cuts

Today’s policy announcement confirms that Norges Bank is likely to start cutting interest rates at its meeting in March, almost certainly with a 25bp reduction to 4.25%. We think it will then loosen...

23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

The implications of Trump’s take on the Panama Canal

President Trump’s threats to retake ownership of the Panama Canal reflects its importance for US trade and the country’s strategic interests. It’s possible that these threats are simply another...

23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (January 2025)

After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major...

22nd January 2025 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Inflation in Asia to stay low, easing cycle to continue

Headline inflation in Asia has continued to ease over the past year and is now back to (or below) target everywhere. We expect inflation to remain subdued over the coming year as improved growing...

22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec' 24)

The smaller-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.0% y/y, in November, combined with the recent recovery in the rand, supports our view that the SARB can continue with its...

22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2024)

21st January 2025 · 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will...

21st January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Focus

​​French public debt: trouble brewing​

Developments over the past year have put France’s public debt on a steeper upward path, with the debt ratio now likely to rise from 113% of GDP last year to around 126% by 2030. We see little chance...

21st January 2025 · 14 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024)

The small fall in headline inflation to 1.8% in December is not as encouraging as it looks, with the details suggesting that a higher proportion of the GST holiday was captured by the price surveys...

21st January 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet

We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate...

21st January 2025 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys show steady improvement

The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of...

20th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Crunch time in Washington

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Weak rand and the SARB, Ghana and Nigeria inflation

The rand’s recent weakness has raised worries in the market that the SARB’s easing cycle will slow. There are upside risks to our rates forecast, but we still believe tight fiscal policy and spare...

17th January 2025 · 6 mins read