Global Inflation Watch

Global Inflation Watch: Tariff shock to drive US-Europe inflation divergence

Inflation has proved somewhat stickier than we had anticipated, but the outlook of lacklustre growth, softening labour markets, normalising supply conditions and falling energy costs is consistent...

29th January 2025 · 18 mins read

RBI Watch

RBI Watch: New governor, new direction for monetary policy

The announcement of large liquidity injections into the banking sector demonstrates how the priorities of the RBI – led by new Governor Sanjay Malhotra – have shifted from containing inflation to...

29th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2024)

29th January 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Focus

US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all

President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed...

28th January 2025 · 16 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2025)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing...

28th January 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with...

27th January 2025 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

PMIs point to price pressures intensifying

At face value, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggest that economic activity remained weak in Europe at the start of the year and lost some momentum in the US. Meanwhile, price pressures seem to be...

24th January 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE

The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on...

24th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025)

Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike...

24th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

The end is in sight for the Riksbank

We think that next week the Riksbank will cut its policy rate for the final time this cycle, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.25%. After that, we do not see a need for policymakers to loosen policy any...

24th January 2025 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025)

Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy...

24th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow

Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger...

24th January 2025 · 16 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (January 2025)

We expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q4, and January’s PMIs point to a similarly poor performance at the start of Q1 .

24th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Cooling labour markets will support disinflation

Data released this week suggest that the RBNZ's concerns about the stickiness of homegrown inflation are overdone. Indeed, non-tradables inflation undershot the Bank's expectations for a second...

24th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 24)

The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in December should add to the Bank’s confidence that it can resume rate hikes today and over the coming months. In December...

23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read