UK Economics Update Get ready for a big fall in UK inflation to 2.0% We think April’s inflation data (released on 20th May) will reveal that, after spending almost five years above target, CPI inflation has finally fallen to 2.0%. This would be below the consensus... 12th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda elections: Museveni to win but unrest risk lingers Uganda heads into elections next week with President Yoweri Museveni widely expected to secure a ninth successive term. Under this status quo, continued investment in the hydrocarbon industry and... 12th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (January 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP to increase at a moderate pace this year and next. Germany’s fiscal stimulus is likely to be smaller, slower and less effective than many expect, while growth will be stronger... 12th January 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market... 12th January 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA economies and currencies to fare well in 2026 Zambia’s kwacha has made a bright start to the year, while the naira and rand have also posted early gains. And we expect most African currencies to fare well over the course of 2026. The risk of... 9th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s security, Venezuela spillovers, CPI data The US and Europe appeared to move closer to an agreement on providing security guarantees to post-war Ukraine this week, but Russia is unlikely to be on board with the terms of the proposed... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec. 2025) Headline CPI inflation edged up to its highest level since China’s reopening from zero-COVID, but this was due to a weather-related pickup in food prices rather than success of the “anti-involution”... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Case for February rate hike remains intact Following the release of weaker than expected November inflation figures, the financial markets now only see a small chance of a rate hike at the RBA's next meeting in February. However, if the Q4 CPI... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi borrowing plan, Bahrain’s austerity steps, KSA opens up Saudi Arabia kicked off 2026 with its first debt issuance of the year. Like last year, we think borrowing will exceed the authorities' plans as lower oil prices lead to a wider budget deficit and... 8th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The small fall in Mexican inflation to 3.7% y/y in December leaves the door open to a February cut but the central bank’s cautious tone, alongside still elevated core price pressures, means that we... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec. 2025) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y in December, and we think that growth will... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) Swiss inflation edged up in December but remained close to zero and we think it will remain around that level this year. While the SNB left its policy rate at zero in December, we think policymakers... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Dec 2025) The continued fall in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated over the next few months, but heading back down in the right direction... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
