US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep 2025) The downside surprise to core CPI prices in September should make the Fed feel even more comfortable with its likely decision to cut interest rates next week, and presents a risk to our view that the... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 25) The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.9% y/y in mid-October, is unlikely to materially change the central bank’s hawkish tone. The start of an easing cycle is approaching, but it’s likely to be... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tensions simmering between the EU and China Tensions between the EU and China over rare earths and semiconductors, which continued to simmer this week, could weigh on euro-zone industry, particularly the defence and auto sectors. Next week, the... 24th October 2025 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the economy continued to muddle through at the start of Q4 and the upside risks to inflation faded a bit further. This probably won’t prompt the Bank of England to... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy may have picked up a bit at the start of the fourth quarter, although we suspect that growth will probably remain low at around 0.2% q/q. 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker inflation reduces urgency for BoJ rate hikes While new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is reportedly preparing a larger supplementary budget than the one last year, coalition partner Ishin No Kai has dropped its demand to slash the sales tax on... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Oct. 25) While the composite PMI softened in October, it still points to a healthy expansion in economic activity. 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) Although underlying inflation softened somewhat in September, our sense is that there is still a strong case for the Bank of Japan to resume its tightening cycle. However, with policymakers still keen... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2025) The dip in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of October, combined with the weakness in the economy, means that Banxico is likely to follow through on its forward guidance and deliver... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Still in a good place The ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% next week and we expect Christine Lagarde to repeat that monetary policy is in a “good place”. She might also suggest that the next move in... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (October 2025) After a very strong run, India’s economy faces a more challenging few quarters in the face of punitive US tariffs. But hopes are growing again that these could be reduced. And in any case, domestic... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Dearth of official data won’t stop Fed from cutting The weakness in various labour market indicators suggest the FOMC will vote for another 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The threat of broader... 22nd October 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep' 25) South Africa’s weaker-than-expected headline inflation reading of 3.4% y/y for September should do more than enough to sway the Reserve Bank to restart its monetary easing cycle next month, with the... 22nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) We doubt that the lower peak in CPI inflation than most feared will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 4.00% at its next policy meeting on 6th November. At 3.8% in September, CPI... 22nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Food inflation is close to its peak We think food inflation is close to its peak and that it will fall next year. Not only will this help to bring down CPI inflation, it will also assist in easing inflation expectations. This may... 21st October 2025 · 5 mins read
