Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027 The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec 2025) We expect GDP growth to average around 1% annualised over the next four quarters as household spending, investment and exports all remain subdued, while the latest budget won’t provide much short-term... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Does Egypt need the IMF anyway? Oman gets an upgrade Egypt’s IMF review has coincided with a fresh impetus to jumpstart the lagging privatisation programme. But compared to just a couple of years ago, Egypt’s improving balance of payments position and... 11th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) Brazil’s central bank continued to strike a hawkish tone as it left interest rates on hold again at 15.00% today. There was little in the statement to suggest that policymakers are preparing for a... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2025) The drop in Brazilian inflation to 4.5% y/y in November won’t prompt an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting later today (we expect the Selic rate to stay at 15.00%). But it does suggest... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased a touch from 12.5% y/y in October to 12.3% y/y in November despite further rent rises and fuel subsidy cuts. Even so, given the Central Bank of Egypt’s own... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov. 2025) Consumer price inflation rose to its highest level since China’s reopening from zero-COVID (excluding volatility around Lunar New Year), but this was the result of a weather-related rise in food... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals upside risks to inflation and employment The November NFIB survey suggests that the labour market is regaining momentum, while also pointing to some upside risks to inflation. At the margin at least, that lends some support to our view that... 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The rise in Mexican inflation to 3.8% y/y in November is unlikely to stop Banxico from cutting its policy rate by another 25bp next week. But it supports our view that the easing cycle will be more... 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our key calls and forecasts to reflect the latest regional developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest... 9th December 2025 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a... 9th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: long end yields may rise, despite more rate cuts Poland’s monetary easing cycle has dragged down short-term government bond yields, but unlike in past cycles, long-term yields haven’t come down very far. Even with the policy rate now likely to fall... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
