India Economics Weekly G7 diplomacy, monsoon concerns Prime Minister Modi and President Trump met in-person for the first time in 15 months on the sidelines of the G7 Summit this week. In that time, relations between the US and India have deteriorated... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Urgency for further monetary tightening diminishing The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz vindicates the BoJ’s assessment that downside risks to economic activity have declined. But the resulting plunge in crude oil prices also means that inflationary... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ on track to hike, One Nation gains ground The 0.8% q/q rise in New Zealand's GDP in Q1 was flattered by residual seasonality and overstated the economy's underlying momentum. Even so, with the RBNZ increasingly concerned about inflation risks... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 26) While the government’s fuel price caps have so far kept a lid on consumer prices, we expect the pass-through of higher energy costs to utilities charges and other goods and services to lift inflation... 19th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Diverging rate paths Latin America has been resilient to the energy shock but other headwinds are likely to hold back regional growth to around 2% over the coming years, making it the worst-performing EM region. The... 18th June 2026 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more Czech rate hikes in the pipeline The communications following the Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to hike the policy rate today didn’t commit the MPC to further tightening. But with growth likely to exceed consensus... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are further EM rate hikes on the cards? The fall in oil prices has eased pressure on EM central banks to tighten monetary policy. But the latest CPI data show that inflation is not just being pushed up by energy prices; other components are... 17th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation unlikely to rise much further May’s jump in services inflation was entirely due to Easter timing effects and higher jet fuel prices. Looking ahead, even if it takes some time for the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz to... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May 2026) The smaller-than-expected rise in South African inflation, to 4.5% y/y in May, alongside the drop in oil prices, reduces the likelihood that the Reserve Bank (SARB) follows up May’s 25bp hike with... 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2026) CPI inflation will still rise over the next six to nine months despite it holding steady at 2.8% in May. But the fall in the oil price ahead of a US-Iran deal means it’s becoming more likely that... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026) If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting... 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation baked in regardless of US-Iran deal If the US-Iran deal holds and oil prices remain at their new, lower level, this will swiftly lower fuel inflation. However, this drag on headline inflation would be offset – outside the US, at least –... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA leaves door ajar for further tightening While the Reserve Bank of Australia predictably left rates unchanged today, it clearly signalled that it was far too early for it to declare victory in its battle against inflation. With underlying... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC unlikely to kick off hiking cycle this year The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Higher inflation not just an energy problem May's weaker than expected core CPI outturn and the recent fall in oil prices will be some relief to the Fed, but the big picture remains that core PCE inflation is likely to remain above 3% for many... 12th June 2026 · 7 mins read
