India Economics Weekly New inflation forecasts, Bihar election implications Headline inflation in India fell to a near 26-year low in October. Although this probably marks the bottom, we now think it will average just 3.0% in 2026, from 3.4% previously. That will allow the... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.2% y/y in October, remaining weak by other EM and Gulf standards, and we expect it to stay subdued as we head into 2026. 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 25) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a near 26-year low in October and with inflation set to remain well below the 4% target over the coming quarters, we continue to expect the RBI to... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey adds to signs jobs market has stabilised The latest NFIB survey provides further evidence that the labour market has not deteriorated any further since official jobs data stopped being reported. 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2025) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.7% y/y in October won’t prompt Copom to kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting in December. But with the economy weakening... 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Are cheap imports from China lowering Asian inflation? We aren’t convinced that cheaper imports from China had much to do with the recent sharp fall in inflation in the rest of Asia. While we expect inflation to remain soft next year, that reflects our... 11th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Taking the pulse of the economy using alternative data Alternative data suggest the economy continued to perform reasonably well early in the fourth quarter. Fears of a renewed labour market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose from 11.7% y/y in September to 12.5% y/y in October, its fastest pace since July, but policymakers at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) have plenty of room to... 10th November 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Gold prices masking continued deflationary pressure Headline CPI inflation returned to positive territory last month, with core inflation climbing to a three-year high. But these gains largely reflect temporary factors, most notably higher gold prices... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s election, delayed cuts in Brazil and Colombia Chile's presidential race is entering the final straight, with the latest polls suggesting that the most likely outcome is a victory for left-wing candidate Jara in the first round, but a win for... 7th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP interest rate cuts, diverging growth outlook The communications following the decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, suggest that the risk to our forecast for the policy rate to bottom... 7th November 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Better rice harvest won’t result in price plunge The renewed jump in rice prices in recent months probably reflects the depletion of inventories ahead of this year’s harvest. If rice output picks up as strongly as the government is anticipating... 7th November 2025 · 3 mins read
