Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025)

The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s...

3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Putin’s response to Trump, CEE GDP, Turkish inflation

Comments from President Putin in an interview this week add to signs that efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine will be challenging. Elsewhere, the Q4 figures out of Central Europe point to a...

31st January 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: In the tariff crosshairs

Parts of Latin America have been in President Trump’s firing line over the past week. While there’s uncertainty over exactly what tariffs Mexico could face (if they are imposed tomorrow, as Trump has...

31st January 2025 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Weak growth, signs inflation easing, estimating r*

A deluge of data this week has underlined how weak economic activity is in the euro-zone but offers some hope that core inflation may be easing. Meanwhile, we do not expect the ECB’s new analysis of...

31st January 2025 · 9 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Personal Income & Spending (Dec)

December’s personal income and spending report brought news of another strong gain in real consumption, but with price pressures muted.

31st January 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t...

31st January 2025 · 1 min read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jan. 25)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should accelerate over the near-term, driven by consumption-boosting policy support. But...

31st January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany states, France, Spain Flash HICP (Jan. 2025)

31st January 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Structural labour shortages point to more rate hikes

The Tokyo CPI suggests that the Bank of Japan’s Board will need to revise up their inflation forecasts yet again at the May meeting. And with the expansion in employment running on fumes as the...

31st January 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA will start cutting rates in February

With Australia's underlying inflation surprising materially to the downside in Q4, we've brought forward our forecast for the RBA's first rate cut from May to February. The data clearly show that...

31st January 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Activity & Labour Market (Dec. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Jan. 25)

The end-month data rush vindicates the Bank’s decision to lift its policy rate last week and suggests that further tightening over the coming months is likely.

31st January 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation

January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour...

30th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB has much further to go

It’s clear that after cutting its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today, the ECB expects to reduce rates further in the coming months. We think that weak growth and inflation will mean that the Bank has...

30th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SARB hawkishly cuts by 25bp

The South African Reserve Bank decision to cut its repo rate by 25bp, to 7.50%, was widely expected but Governor Kganyago was more hawkish than anticipated, citing concern about US tariff threats and...

30th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (January 2024)

The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today came as no surprise and the accompanying statement implies that more cuts are coming, as is widely anticipated. We think the Bank will...

30th January 2025 · 2 mins read