UK Economics Update Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026 We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2026) The latest data suggest that the global economy lost some momentum in Q4. Industrial activity appears to be softening, while global trade – which has held up well despite US tariffs – fell in October... 7th January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December 2025) December’s small fall in headline inflation to 2.0%, and the likelihood that it will drop further in January, won’t alter ECB policymakers’ thinking. But if we’re right that headline and core... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Nov. 25) While trimmed mean inflation slowed in February, it’s probably still too strong for the RBA’s liking and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will tighten policy as soon as next month. 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (December) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell below 2% in December and that the core rate edged down. ECB policymakers will take that as confirmation that... 6th January 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi set to appreciate further in 2026 The renminbi has made headway recently, both against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms. With inflation set to remain much lower in China than elsewhere, further nominal appreciation looks... 2nd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing rally will soon slow in earnest Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run. 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Will food inflation fall in DMS next year? Food CPI inflation has been elevated in several advanced economies in recent months, namely Japan, the UK and Canada, but we expect price pressures to ease in most cases. A combination of lower... 22nd December 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Distorted data makes it hard to read the macro tea leaves The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. We doubt this new batch of data will have any major... 19th December 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of labour shortages despite falling population Despite the record decline in population in the third quarter, lower immigration does not appear to be leading to labour shortages. That provides some support to our view that the Bank of Canada will... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s rate hike risks, Copom, Kast’s victory While our base case is that Colombia's central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting later today, the further deterioration in the fiscal picture and the prospects of a large... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals additional rate hikes are in the pipeline When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (November 2025) With inflation still running hot, the Bank of Japan is certain to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting later today. Moreover, we think there’s a compelling case for the Bank to lift rates... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
