Europe Economics Weekly Economic growth may stall in Q2 The downbeat set of business surveys for May which were published this week have prompted us to shave our forecast for quarterly GDP growth to zero in Q2. Further ahead, an outright recession is... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: from one energy crisis to the next South Africa this week marked a full year without power outages, but the effects of the energy shock from the Iran war are now starting to kick in. We think the rise in inflation in April was probably... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 We learned this week that the Japanese economy was in solid shape on the eve of the Iran war. Moreover, the May PMIs suggest that the Bank of Japan’s fears of a steep downturn are unlikely to... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2026) India’s economy will grow at its slowest rate since 2020 this year as a result of the energy shock. We think headline inflation will rise above the upper bound of the RBI’s 2-6% target range over the... 22nd May 2026 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA's work not done yet The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (April 2026) Although inflationary pressures eased in April, they will pick up again before long. Accordingly, we still think the Bank of Japan is likely to resume its tightening cycle sooner rather than later. 22nd May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How concerning is the jump in PPI inflation? The acceleration in producer price (PPI) inflation so far this year has been narrower than was the case during the initial stages of the post-pandemic surge, which limits the risk of consumer price... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Inflation pressures, pipelines and railways US President Trump declared this week that he had refrained from restarting strikes on Iran at the behest of the Gulf states in order to give more time for negotiations. But reports that Supreme... 21st May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (May 2026) By suggesting that weaker activity may be starting to restrain price rises, May’s Flash PMIs are the third set of figures in three days that suggest the Bank of England does not need to rush to raise... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 26) The composite PMI suggests that economic activity is softening rather than collapsing, while inflation could soon become as strong as it was after the Ukraine War. 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2026) If energy prices gradually ease in the second half of this year, as in our baseline, GDP growth should average 2.1% this year and pick up to 2.3% next year. Higher gasoline prices will weigh on... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be braced for second-round effects? ECB policymakers have pointed to second-round effects in the labour market as a key indication that they would need to tighten monetary policy. As things stand, we suspect that wage inflation will... 20th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflationary effects of Iran war are set to broaden Higher energy costs have pushed up fuel prices in the euro-zone while the impact on other components of the consumer price basket has so far been very small. But the inflationary effects of the Iran... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The stronger-than-expected South African inflation reading for April (both headline and core) probably tips the balance towards the Reserve Bank (SARB) opting for a 25bp interest rate hike (to 7.00%)... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to stay put, while maintaining policy optionality The RBNZ is likely to leave rates on hold at its meeting next Wednesday, while stressing that it stands prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures show signs of persistence. In our baseline... 20th May 2026 · 7 mins read
