Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation outlook (generally) more benign EM inflation has continued to fall and is now close to the rates recorded in the late 2010s, which will be welcomed by policymakers. But there are a few important outliers. Inflation looks set to... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s inflation target is still fit for purpose India is closing in on a decade of inflation targeting and the current framework is up for review. The success of the Reserve Bank in keeping inflation lower and less volatile since the introduction... 14th October 2025 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s growth set to ease but MAS to stay on hold Singapore’s central bank kept policy settings unchanged today and its accompanying statement was a touch hawkish. With the economy set to slow rather than slump, inflation likely to rise gradually... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in September and with the outlook generally benign and the economy set to cool, we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle in the... 13th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Real wages not falling as much as official data suggest Real wages haven’t fallen as sharply as the official data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare would suggest. Nonetheless, it is striking that workers are not benefitting much from... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Sep. 2025) The small increases in inflation in Brazil and Mexico in September are unlikely to have a material impact on the next interest rate meetings in both countries. In Brazil, while an easing cycle is... 9th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ETS2 add to euro-zone inflation? The introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 will add only a small amount to headline inflation in the euro-zone in 2027, perhaps just 0.1 percentage points. So ETS2 is unlikely to be... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Answering your questions on the economic outlook and AI We held an online Drop-in session yesterday (see here for a recording) to discuss the US economic outlook. This Update answers several of the questions we received, including the role that AI will... 8th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (September) CPIF inflation edged down in September and is likely to fall much more significantly next year – to around just 1%. Despite that, we think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate on hold for the next... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
