Filtered by Subscriptions: US Commercial Property Use setting US Commercial Property
Retail property looks most heavily exposed to the disruption from the coronavirus crisis. But not all retail is equal and different sectors will see very different impacts. In our view, neighbourhood and community centres are better placed than either …
3rd April 2020
Elevated corporate bond yields suggest that property investors should be concerned about future cashflows. However, unprecedented policy support should help most companies stay afloat. And evidence from the start of the 2007-09 recession suggests that the …
1st April 2020
Property has generally been at the centre of the most severe economic downturns in recent decades. But this time it is different. Although we think the commercial market is likely to experience a sharp jolt in 2020, provided the spread of the virus can be …
26th March 2020
Our base case points to investment activity falling by 45% this year, with Q2 and Q3 seeing particularly weak deal volumes, before a decent recovery in Q4. From a historical perspective, this would be a sharper fall than either of those caused by the 2001 …
18th March 2020
The additional cuts in the Fed Funds rate that we expect to see in the next couple of months, as well as the government’s likely fiscal support, will help shore up investor confidence. Despite a mechanical improvement in valuations, investment activity …
11th March 2020
The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively modest. The spread of the coronavirus from Asia into …
6th March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
Last year saw a fall in foreign investment into US commercial property, but South Korean inflows bucked the trend. This year could see a similar level of activity from Korean investors, but given their return targets, we don’t expect a resurgence to …
28th February 2020
We think that 2020 will be the eleventh consecutive year of double-digit total returns for industrial property. However, we also think it will be the last in this cycle, as slower yield falls from 2021 and a lower rate of rental growth keep returns in …
26th February 2020
Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage lending standards and a record low number of homes for …
20th February 2020
The worst commercial real estate busts have tended to follow a ramping-up in lending activity, driven by the availability of debt rising and its cost falling. However, regularly updated Fed lending data suggest that there is no real evidence of this …
14th February 2020
Rapid employment growth in the technology and information industries has been behind a surge in demand for office space in San Francisco. Even if this growth were to slow somewhat, we expect absorption to exceed new supply over the next three years, …
11th February 2020
Over the next two years we expect US property to produce total returns of over 7.5% p.a. This would be stronger than any of the last three years and, more importantly, would be a better outturn than we expect for US equities and far stronger than the …
6th February 2020
Having softened in each of the last four years, we expect US commercial property total returns to strengthen again in 2020, reaching close to 7%. Those returns will reflect a roughly 3% uplift in capital values, despite a slowdown in rental growth this …
3rd February 2020