Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
There were 1.14m vacant homes not being used for any purpose in the first quarter, enough to double the inventory of existing homes for sale. Record low interest rates and the prospect of further house price gains mean owners have been reluctant to sell. …
28th April 2021
Surging lumber prices have led to delays in housing starts and an increase in some new home prices. But, while we expect lumber prices to remain relatively high over the next couple of years, the impact on starts and house prices will not persist. Beyond …
21st April 2021
The easing of virus restrictions and return to offices for many white-collar workers will mean that apartment markets in cities such as NYC and Washington D.C. will outperform this year. But we think the longer-term outlook is most favourable in Sunbelt …
15th April 2021
Record low inventory, surging house prices and stretched affordability have pushed the share of households who think now is a good time to buy a home to the lowest since 2010. But, at the same time, the share who plan to buy a home in the next six months …
25th March 2021
We now expect mortgage interest rates will rise to 4.0% by the end of the year, and to 4.25% by end-2022. But housing demand will be supported by a reopening economy, the large fiscal stimulus, frustrated buyers still looking for homes and substantial …
19th March 2021
With fewer spending options during the lockdown, the share of cash-out refinances is much lower than usual given the recent surge in house prices. And, while the volume of cash extracted has reached a 13-year high, most borrowers look to be spending that …
12th March 2021
Greater availability, lower prices and proximity to NYC have supported demand for Boston apartments during the pandemic. That implies demand may edge back as the country reopens, and some workers return to NYC. Rental growth is therefore likely to …
5th March 2021
Record high lumber prices are leading to delays in housing starts, and as result the share of homes for sale that have not been started reached a record high in January. While that will constrain single-family starts in the short term, sales of homes that …
26th February 2021
An elevated unemployment rate, alongside some relaxation in immigration restrictions, will help ease labour shortages in the residential sector this year. Admittedly, not all parts of the economy are finding jobs easy to fill, but homebuilders are …
17th February 2021
As it is based on asking prices, the recently launched Common Haus Price Index (CHPI) could lead other house price indices by 1-2 months, which would make it a useful tool for forecasting short-term changes in house prices. While its track record is far …
8th February 2021
In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most real estate is clustered. We think it is premature to …
4th February 2021
An improvement in the share of in-person interviews in the fourth quarter HVS survey helped bring the homeownership rate back down from its recent implausible highs. And, with home sales set to slow this year, we expect it will stay close to 65.5% over …
We estimate a backlog of around 850,000 foreclosures will have built-up if the ban is extended until the end of September, similar to the peak seen during the financial crisis. However, not all those foreclosures will be processed in the final quarter of …
27th January 2021
With risk-free interest rates not set to drop any further, and home sales constrained by record low inventory, the cost of the prepayment option on MBS will have fallen. Alongside Fed purchases of MBS, that helps explain the recent narrowing in the spread …
21st January 2021
Compared to consensus, we are relatively downbeat on the outlook for home sales this year. Mortgage rates will stay close to record lows, but they will not fall further. Pent-up demand from last spring will soon be exhausted, inventory is at record lows …
7th January 2021
The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more fundamental economic decline in the world’s largest urban …
5th January 2021
As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based workers. Combined with aggressive rent cuts, which …
16th December 2020
An important driver of the surge in home sales over recent months has been households leaving apartments in cities to escape COVID-19 and acquire more space to work from home. But a fall in the share of single-family and completed new homes in total home …
7th December 2020
News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term, next year is still likely to be tough for most property …
2nd December 2020
A striking development in the past few months is how well housing markets in developed markets have generally been doing. We expect this to peter out next year, although in most cases house price falls will be avoided. In the meantime, the strength of …
19th November 2020
Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental households who left large cities are either renting in …
18th November 2020
Wealthy buyers seeking homes during the pandemic have driven the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 to a record high. A lack of inventory has prevented a similar rise in the new home sector, and that may persuade builders to refocus on …
2nd November 2020
Despite issues with sampling due to COVID-19, the third quarter HVS survey did provide some interesting information on the impact of the virus. A surge in median asking rents was caused by a jump in the share of expensive multifamily units on the market, …
28th October 2020
Despite a surge in mortgage applications, holdings of residential loans by commercial banks declined in August and September. We suspect that divergence is due to a rise in mortgage repayments, which would be in line with the jump in the saving rate. In …
22nd October 2020
Surging demand has led to a sharp drop in the number of new homes for sale, with the fall driven by a collapse in the inventory of completed homes. A jump in single-family building permits will provide some support to overall new home supply but, given …
30th September 2020
The sharp drop in the rental absorption rate would, other things equal, be expected to weigh on multifamily housing starts. However, the recent shift away from cities will provide an opportunity for developers to focus more heavily on the for-sale market, …
16th September 2020
In contrast to the surge in mortgage forbearance following the CARES Act, we doubt the recently announced eviction ban will trigger a jump in rental arrears. For those who can afford it, deciding not to pay the rent still comes with significant costs. …
4th September 2020
Given interest rates are already very low, we doubt any additional stimulus introduced because of the change to the inflation target will provide a significant boost to the economy or house prices. Indeed, the past relationship between interest rates and …
27th August 2020
The foreclosure process ground to a halt in the second quarter, as lenders were banned from foreclosing on federally-backed mortgages and the court system largely closed. While we expect most of those who applied for forbearance due to COVID-related …
20th August 2020
The median credit score on mortgages originated in the second quarter surged to a 21-year high, as lenders tightened standards in response to uncertainty over the labour market. While unemployment is now falling back, we expect it will remain above 5% to …
13th August 2020
The unprecedented surge in household formation and the homeownership rate in the second quarter is not a sign that Americans are fleeing rental apartments in the city to buy homes in the suburbs. Rather, issues with data collection due to the coronavirus …
29th July 2020
Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future across the main property types. We start this by …
15th July 2020
As COVID infections have surged, the slowdown or reversal of reopening across the South will weigh on home sales. Given sellers and buyers now have more experience in transacting during the pandemic, we doubt the fall in sales in the South will match the …
14th July 2020
The average value of a home purchase mortgage application hit a record high $359,000 at the end of June. But that doesn’t mean house price growth is set to take-off. An increase in the share of new home sales, tighter credit conditions and perhaps …
6th July 2020
The hit to apartment absorption from the coronavirus has occurred at the same time as a large number of new units are set to enter the market. Even with current tenants staying put, that raises the risk of a spike in the vacancy rate. However, …
1st July 2020
A drop in house price expectations has helped boost demand from some looking to pick up a bargain, but it has also encouraged sellers to delay listing until the price outlook improves. Indeed, selling sentiment has seen a larger drop compared to buying …
18th June 2020
The factors that drove the resurgence in home purchase mortgage demand, including record low mortgage rates, the need for more space and the anticipation of finding a bargain, will not give a similar boost to apartment rental demand. Low interest rates …
11th June 2020
An incentive to sell to support cash-flow, relatively affluent buyers and a streamlined selling process help explain why new home sales increased in April even as the unemployment rate hit a record high. Without those benefits, existing home sales will …
28th May 2020
In April, single-family housing starts saw their largest month-on-month drop since records began in 1970. However, we are relatively optimistic that starts will recover as more builders are able to return to work. Admittedly, homebuilder confidence is …
20th May 2020
Consumers now expect house prices to fall 2% over the next 12-months, the first negative reading since 2011. That will cut the amount buyers are willing to pay and, alongside a drop in rents, supports our below-consensus call for annual house price growth …
14th May 2020
The surge in mortgage borrowers seeking forbearance stands in contrast to a more modest rise in missed rental payments and suggests many have requested mortgage holidays as an insurance policy, rather than because of a pressing need. Accordingly, while …
7th May 2020
Strong new home sales in 2019 helped the under-35 homeownership rate jump to a nine-year high in the first quarter. But, with the disruption from COVID set to cut home sales in half in the second quarter, that impressive performance will come to a halt. …
30th April 2020
Uptake of home equity lines of credit surged during the financial crisis, as households made use of existing facilities to replace lost income. But, even as the unemployment rate reaches a record high, we doubt a similar increase will occur today. …
29th April 2020
Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if lockdowns hamper property sales, and if demand rebounds later …
Jobless claims have reached 26 million, but by the end of last week the share of apartment tenants making a full or partial rental payment in April was down by just four percentage points compared to usual. That demonstrates tenants are still incentivised …
24th April 2020
The largest fall in new home buyer traffic on record in April supports our below-consensus call for a 50% q/q drop in new home sales in the second quarter. But the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home saw only a modest decline in …
17th April 2020
The 27% drop in the price of residential REITs since late February is not a sign that house prices are set for a significant fall. The past relationship with house prices has been poor and on an annual basis single-family REIT prices are down by only 2%, …
9th April 2020
Single-family housing starts were in a strong position prior to the arrival of the coronavirus and builders would, in normal circumstances, look through what is anticipated to be a temporary dip in demand. But disruption to supply chains and the …
2nd April 2020
The collapse in home sales, and hit to households’ income and savings, means house prices will fall back. But lender forbearance and the fiscal package will prevent a surge in forced sellers, and with lending standards much tighter a repeat of the …
27th March 2020
A surge in the unemployment rate to 12% in the second quarter will put upward pressure on the mortgage delinquency rate, but an additional $600 week in unemployment insurance should keep the rate under 7%. Moreover, given the temporary nature of the …
25th March 2020