Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
House prices start to slip The drop in the Halifax house price index in January confirmed that the turn of the year coincided with a change of momentum in house prices. We expect house prices to continue to drop back over the course of 2021 as the stamp …
5th February 2021
Star performance starts to fade The construction industry outperformed the rest of the economy in 2020 by being the first and only sector to see output recover to its pre-virus level. But the unexpected dip in the construction PMI in January suggests that …
4th February 2021
First drop in prices since June is a sign of things to come The small drop in Nationwide house prices in January, the first since June last year, is an early sign of the reversal in the 2020 house price surge we expect to see this year as the stamp duty …
2nd February 2021
Lenders make up for lost time in late 2020 The strongest December since 2006 took total mortgage approvals in 2020 above their 2019 level. We still think that approvals will slump when the stamp duty holiday ends, but there are some tentative signs the …
1st February 2021
Strong demand allows banks to maintain stringent lending standards Very strong demand allowed banks to maintain tight lending standards in Q4 2020 while still increasing mortgage lending volumes. Of course, buyer demand is likely to drop sharply when the …
21st January 2021
Waning momentum leads surveyors to expect a drop in prices Sales and prices rose further in December, but there were clear signs that momentum was waning even before the new lockdown was imposed. Indeed, with the end of the stamp duty holiday looming, …
14th January 2021
The year the housing market ignored the economy 2020 may well have been the strangest year for the housing market since the Halifax house price index began in 1983. Despite the biggest drop in GDP since 1709, house prices rose by 7% y/y in Q4, the largest …
8th January 2021
Construction continues to recover…for now The seventh consecutive construction PMI reading of over 50 in December mainly reflected a continued strong recovery in housing activity. The rebound in construction of commercial property has already all but …
7th January 2021
Surge in lending to pre-financial crisis levels will be fleeting The increase in mortgage approvals for house purchase to over 100,000 for the first time since August 2007 underlines the remarkable strength of housing market activity. If moving house …
4th January 2021
Surveyors report that activity peaked in November After mortgage approvals hit a 13-year high in October, surveyors reported that sales rose yet further in November to what they expect to be the high-water mark. With the outlook for employment shaky and …
10th December 2020
Surge in mortgage advances comes despite reduction in riskier lending The surge in mortgage lending to its highest level since before the financial crisis has come despite banks curbing riskier loans. If we are right to think that house prices will dip, …
8th December 2020
House prices continue to rise strongly, but for how much longer? There was no sign whatsoever of the surge in house prices abating in November as annual growth in the Halifax index rose to a fresh four-year high. Tight market dynamics suggest that prices …
7th December 2020
No double dip in construction The rise in the headline construction PMI in November showed that the industry continued to recover even as overall economic activity probably contracted again. But builders’ optimism that this will continue for the …
4th December 2020
Surge in house prices to reverse in 2021 Despite GDP being set for its biggest fall in 300 years this year, annual house price growth accelerated to its highest rate since January 2015 in November. The divergence has only been possible due to …
1st December 2020
Approvals stay high despite evidence of a cut back in high LTV lending Very strong demand allowed mortgage approvals to surge yet higher in October even as banks cut back on high LTV lending. Approvals are likely to rise even further in the run up to end …
30th November 2020
Housing market boom continuing for now The housing market remains exceedingly buoyant, with both the number of sales and house prices rising further in October. But like us, surveyors are increasingly doubtful that the price gains and activity witnessed …
12th November 2020
2020 surge in prices starts to ease The smallest monthly increase in house prices since June shows that the surge in house prices was losing steam even before the second lockdown was announced. With the economic outlook deteriorating and policy support …
6th November 2020
Recovery in construction waning The fall in the headline construction PMI to its lowest level since May shows that the recovery in activity was waning even before the second lockdown began. Admittedly, construction sites will remain open this time around. …
5th November 2020
House price growth surges to five-year high House prices rose at their fastest rate in five years during October. But the housing market is mainly being driven by temporary factors such as pent-up demand and the stamp duty cut. Looking ahead, we think …
30th October 2020
House purchase lending reaches new peak September’s lending data show another increase in house purchase approvals. But looking ahead, with the economy looking increasingly fragile, lending is likely to fall back once the pent-up demand from earlier this …
29th October 2020
Banks maintain property lending caution Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and lenders expect to …
15th October 2020
One last surge in housing market activity Housing market activity rose for a fourth consecutive month in September, but the market may be approaching an inflection point. We expect house price growth and transactions to cool by the end of the year, as …
8th October 2020
House price growth surges to four-year high House price growth surged to a four-year high according to the Halifax index. But there are tentative signs that the pent-up demand driving the latest mini-boom may be running out. We think house prices are …
7th October 2020
Construction growth edges up in September The construction PMI strengthened in September, driven by an improvement in both the commercial and residential sectors. Still, with fresh virus restrictions likely to hit commercial occupier demand further, …
6th October 2020
House price growth surges again House prices are rising at their fastest rate in four years. But price gains are likely to slow as the pent-up demand driving the market now is expended. Looking ahead, we think a weak underlying economy and the end of the …
30th September 2020
Strong bounce in house purchase lending continues August’s lending data showed another sharp increase in house purchase approvals. But, while this buoyancy may last for a few more months, the current spike in demand is likely to be short-lived. With the …
29th September 2020
Housing market maintains its upward momentum The housing market strengthened further in August. But as pent-up demand from lockdown dries up over the coming months, conditions will soon cool. We expect house price growth to stagnate next year, while we …
10th September 2020
House prices bounce back strongly House price growth in August exceeded expectations, surging to 5.2% y/y. But pent-up demand will soon be expended, while a weak economy, cautious lenders and the end of the stamp duty cut will weigh on prices. We think …
7th September 2020
Residential recovery outpaces commercial While the recovery in both commercial and residential construction lost momentum in August, growth in housebuilding far outperformed commercial. This trend is likely to continue, reflecting the stronger outlook for …
4th September 2020
August gain wipes out Covid losses Combined with July, August’s surge in house price growth has more than reversed the price falls seen immediately after lockdown. But with the market mainly being driven by short-term factors such as pent-up demand, the …
2nd September 2020
V-shaped recovery in house purchase lending July’s lending data show a v-shaped recovery in house purchase mortgage approvals. But with the economy still fragile and lenders still cautious about high LTV loans, lending is likely to fall back once the …
1st September 2020
Further strong pick-up in activity in July The latest RICS survey confirms that housing market activity strengthened further in July. This reinforces other evidence that the recovery may be stronger than expected, but in our view this doesn’t yet signal …
13th August 2020
House prices recover strongly in July According to the Halifax index, house prices rebounded in July. Along with the recent Nationwide data and stronger lending, this is further support for our view that a house price crash is now unlikely. But with …
7th August 2020
More encouraging signs for construction, but commercial expected to lag The rise in July’s construction PMI is an encouraging sign for activity. Looking ahead, we expect housing construction will lead the upturn in activity, while further falls in values …
6th August 2020
House prices stage a comeback in July House prices bounced back in July, unwinding the fall seen in June. Along with the pickup in lending in June, this reinforces our view that a house price crash is now unlikely. Although, with the mortgage holiday and …
31st July 2020
Lending recovery off to a strong start House purchase mortgage approvals saw a strong initial recovery in June. Lending is likely to strengthen further this year, as the stamp duty cut supports demand and lenders bring back higher LTV loans. All this …
29th July 2020
Credit crunch for mortgage lending Mortgage credit availability collapsed in Q2, while commercial loan conditions improved on the back of government loan guarantees. Looking ahead, lenders expect both commercial and residential property lending to fall, …
16th July 2020
Activity rebounds in June The latest RICS survey suggest activity is increasing at its fastest rate since 2013, though these results should still be read with caution as the UK moves out of lockdown. Nonetheless, market sentiment is clearly recovering …
9th July 2020
House prices broadly flat in June According to the Halifax index, house prices were broadly stable in June. Looking ahead, with the furlough scheme due to end soon and lenders increasingly risk averse, further house price falls are likely. But there are …
7th July 2020
Construction rebound outstrips expectations June’s PMI construction jumped back above 50 for the first time in four months, confirming that activity is starting to return to normal. The improvement was driven by both commercial and residential sectors and …
6th July 2020
House prices fall sharply again in June House prices saw another steep fall in June, but low transactions volumes cast doubt on the accuracy of the figures. Looking ahead, there are signs of a recovery in demand, but lenders remain cautious. We think …
1st July 2020
Surprise fall in mortgage approvals Despite the housing market reopening half-way through May, house purchase mortgage approvals once again fell sharply. But signs of a bounce back in buyer demand in June, combined with resilient mortgage availability …
29th June 2020
Surveyors point to modest fall in house prices May’s RICS survey points to a modest fall in house prices. But the rest of the survey is harder to interpret. It suggests that activity fell from April’s already very low level, despite lockdown restrictions …
11th June 2020
High LTV lending edged down in Q1 High LTV lending was already edging down before the coronavirus hit, as competitive pressures among banks plateaued. But lenders have since withdrawn such loans en masse, owing to fears of a house price collapse. So we …
9th June 2020
House prices edge down as lockdown is eased According to the Halifax index, house prices fell for a third consecutive month in May as lockdown was eased. But the fall of 0.2% m/m was very gradual. That supports our view that house prices will see a modest …
5th June 2020
Gradual recovery in property construction May’s rise in the construction PMI suggests that April was probably the low point for activity. The improvement was driven both the commercial and residential sectors. Looking ahead, with lockdown gradually being …
4th June 2020
Lending hit record low during lockdown House purchase mortgage approvals fell by 71.8% m/m in April – broadly in line with our expectations. Looking ahead, with the housing market having reopened in May, that probably marks a low point. Still, given the …
2nd June 2020
Largest monthly house price fall since 2009 House prices slumped in May due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Given the magnitude of the economic shock, further price cuts are extremely likely. That said, we think the extensive policy support …
Housing market activity hits all-time low With the housing market reopening, April’s slump in sales may be the market’s lowest point. But any recovery will start from a low base and face serious economic headwinds – from both weak employment and …
14th May 2020
Coronavirus triggers house price drop House prices fell for a second consecutive month in April according to the Halifax index. But with low transactions activity likely to be causing extra volatility in the data, readings from the lockdown period need to …
7th May 2020