Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
A modest improvement, but supply issues continue to bite Construction firms reported that activity strengthened in October despite higher costs and continued difficulty sourcing materials. The big picture is that until those constraints ease construction …
4th November 2021
House prices maintain their momentum Yet another upside surprise in house prices last month confirmed that the end of the stamp duty holiday in September did little to cool the market. We expect house prices to continue to beat expectations in the near …
3rd November 2021
Housing market shrugs off the end of the stamp duty holiday Unsurprisingly, mortgage lending spiked in September as buyers rushed to complete before the stamp duty taper period ended. More notable is the resilience of mortgage approvals, suggesting that …
29th October 2021
Improving credit conditions may protect housing market from higher rates An ongoing improvement in credit availability may offset the increase in Bank Rate we expect in 2022. That offers support to our forecast that mortgage rates will remain low. A …
14th October 2021
Housing market shrugs off broader economic headwinds The RICS survey suggests that the housing market has shrugged off the deterioration in sentiment about the broader economy so far. Demand stabilised at a high level in September while stock remained …
Prices jump despite end of tax break The large rise in the Halifax house price index in September suggests that we are right to think that robust demand and limited inventory will mean that prices record further gains after the stamp duty holiday ends. …
7th October 2021
Recovery in construction falters due to shortages The further drop in the construction PMI in September suggested that the recovery in construction has faltered amid a severe lack of materials and staff, spiralling costs, and softening demand. The drop in …
6th October 2021
Price growth cools, but only gradually The only small gain in house prices in September suggests that house price growth slowed as the stamp duty holiday was withdrawn. But with inventory limited and demand resilient, we suspect that house price growth …
30th September 2021
Increase in mortgage size another sign of resilient demand While still above pre-COVID-19 levels mortgage approvals edged down in August, suggesting no great rush to move before the stamp duty holiday taper ends at the end of September. But an increase in …
29th September 2021
Surge in home moving pushes lending up to post-financial crisis high The further surge in mortgage lending to a fresh post-financial-crisis high and booming house prices begs the question whether there is over-exuberance in the housing market. But as the …
14th September 2021
Prices and transactions expected to remain buoyant While demand continued to soften in August limited stock on the market points to house price inflation remaining high in the near term. And despite the end of the stamp duty holiday, surveyors expect …
9th September 2021
Shrugging off the stamp duty holiday taper While annual house price inflation cooled from 7.6% to 7.1% in August according to Halifax, the solid gain in house prices on the month confirms that the housing market is weathering the winding down of the stamp …
7th September 2021
Materials shortages restrain activity The further easing in the construction PMI in August was due to materials shortages rather than any softening in demand. The drop in the headline construction PMI from 58.7 in July to 55.2 in August suggested that, …
6th September 2021
Surprise August rise highlights resilience to end of stamp duty holiday The unexpectedly large rise in house prices in August is yet another reason to think that house price growth will shrug off the end of the stamp duty holiday. It also suggests our …
1st September 2021
Approvals decline as tax break winds down Mortgage approvals continued to fall back in July as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, but they remained above pre-COVID-19 levels. Timely indicators suggest that demand will be resilient even when the tax break …
31st August 2021
Limited stock supports prices as demand cools Despite new buyer enquiries dropping back in July, house prices continued to rise as buyers competed for limited stock. Sales volumes eased in July as the stamp duty holiday began to be phased out. (See Table …
12th August 2021
Recovery in July, but further slowdown still expected Halifax house prices returned to growth on a monthly last month, partly reversing a weak June figure. But the underlying trend, as the stamp duty discount is phased out, is for a modest slowdown. …
6th August 2021
Construction PMI dips, but underlying demand strong July’s construction PMI figure was slightly disappointing compared with the previous month’s highs. But it continued to point to robust activity and we think any dip is most likely a reflection of …
5th August 2021
Rush for stamp duty relief drives borrowing to record high A surge in borrowing ahead of the tapering of the stamp duty holiday in July saw new mortgage lending set a fresh record high. Meanwhile, robust mortgage approvals pointed to activity remaining …
29th July 2021
House prices lose a little momentum The drop back in the Nationwide house price inflation in July suggests that the tapering of the stamp duty holiday has taken a little heat out of the market. But as the tax break was just one of many factors that have …
28th July 2021
Easing lending conditions to support house prices A further easing of concerns about the outlook for property prices and the economy suggests that mortgage lending conditions will continue to improve. That will help ensure that house prices are resilient …
15th July 2021
Market set to remain tight as stamp duty holiday ends Activity and house prices were extremely strong again in June according to the RICS survey, although there was a distinct softening in the more forward-looking balances. As supply remains limited, we …
8th July 2021
Signs of market softening as stamp duty holiday winds down While we would be wary of reading too much into the small decline in house prices in June reported by Halifax, timely measures of house prices are consistent in pointing to a moderation in house …
7th July 2021
Construction booming despite difficulty sourcing materials Despite a further deterioration in the availability of building materials, construction output rose at the fastest pace since 1997 in June. That suggests output in the sector is now well above …
6th July 2021
Mortgage lending remains strong The tick up in mortgage approvals for house purchase in May left them 33% above pre-virus norms, and timely indicators suggest that mortgage lending will remain robust despite the looming end of the stamp duty holiday. The …
29th June 2021
House price growth peaks at a 17-year high House prices recorded a fifth consecutive monthly rise in June, the final month before the stamp duty threshold begins to return to its usual level. There are few signs of market dynamics changing dramatically as …
Looming end of tax break yet to bite The looming end of the stamp duty holiday has only applied the slightest dab to the brakes of the housing market thus far. But while the new buyer enquiries started to ease, sales instructions fell more sharply …
10th June 2021
Mortgage boom reflects home mover demand rather than generous lending The rise in mortgage lending to its highest level since the financial crisis in Q1 was driven by a huge increase in existing homeowners moving. As a result, the 9% y/y increase in house …
8th June 2021
Stamp duty extension ushers in further house price gains House prices recorded another large increase in May as the extension to the stamp duty holiday continued to turbocharge house purchase demand. Timely indicators show that the end of the tax break is …
7th June 2021
High materials prices fail to stifle strong activity Construction output rose further above pre-virus levels in May despite growing shortages of contractors and materials, and high cost inflation. The rise in the headline construction PMI from 61.6 in …
4th June 2021
Pick-up in approvals after stamp duty deadline extended Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for the first time since November in April as prospective buyers responded to the extension of the stamp duty holiday. But even before that modest increase, …
2nd June 2021
Prices continue to surge The boost to demand from the extension to the stamp duty holiday caused annual house price inflation to hit a seven-year high in May, and it is set to rise further in June. Thereafter, the end of the tax break should cause house …
1st June 2021
Demand-supply mismatch intensifies Extremely high demand and limited supply pushed up house prices sharply in April. The market will undoubtedly cool as the rush to buy during the stamp duty holiday eases. But with mortgage rates low and the economy …
13th May 2021
House prices get a second wind A renewed surge in house prices following the extension of the stamp duty holiday drove annual growth in the Halifax house price index up to a five-year high in April. Demand remains very strong, so house prices are likely …
10th May 2021
Construction activity stays strong, though growing signs of cost pressures Strong demand for new projects brought further growth in output during April, according to the latest construction PMIs. But there is also growing evidence of cost pressures, …
7th May 2021
Mortgage advances set record ahead of original stamp duty deadline The surge in mortgage advances to an all-time high in March reflected the rise in housing transaction volumes to their highest level on record in the same month. Meanwhile, despite the …
4th May 2021
Stamp duty extension provides renewed impetus House prices regained momentum in April following the extension to the stamp duty holiday. As a result, an acceleration in annual house price growth into double digits over the summer is now all but …
30th April 2021
Confirmation banks’ risk appetite is returning Robust house price growth and the prospect of a strong economic recovery have caused banks’ risk appetite to return. As a result, banks expect to increase the availability of high LTV loans and reduce …
15th April 2021
Prices resume increase on extension of policy support The rise in house prices recorded by Halifax in March probably marks the start of a renewed surge in house price inflation into double figures over the summer. The 1.1% m/m rise in the Halifax house …
9th April 2021
Strongest growth in construction activity since 2014 A broad-based strengthening in construction activity pushed up the construction PMI to a six-and-a-half-year high in March. Strong housing and logistics development will continue to support …
8th April 2021
Housing market boom gains renewed momentum The extension of the stamp duty holiday has given the ongoing housing market boom renewed momentum and could push house price inflation up from 6% in March well into double figures by the summer. The rise in the …
Cooling in house price growth likely to be temporary The small month-on-month decline in house prices recorded by Nationwide in March probably reflects a temporary softening in demand before the stamp duty holiday was extended. Judging by other …
31st March 2021
Stamp duty deadline pushes lending to a five-year high The rush to beat the original stamp duty holiday deadline in March pushed mortgage advances up to their highest level since 2016 in February. And while approvals for house purchase did start to cool, …
29th March 2021
Survey points to further gains in house prices The rebound in the RICS survey balances in February suggest that home sales were sustained at a very high level even before further policy support was announced in the Budget. Strong sales and limited stock …
11th March 2021
Home movers drive strong lending Very high home mover activity and resilient first-time buyer demand pushed mortgage lending up to its highest level since the financial crisis at the end of last year. It’s become clear that the stamp duty holiday is only …
9th March 2021
Cooling but resilient The easing off in Halifax house price inflation in February marks a contrast with Nationwide’s more upbeat figure. Nonetheless, house prices appeared to be holding onto their 2020 gains even when buyers could no longer expect to …
5th March 2021
Construction sector’s strong innings resumes after rain delay The rebound in the construction PMI in February suggests that the dip in activity in January was due to heavy rainfall rather than any deterioration in demand. While residential activity …
4th March 2021
Surprise rise suggests market could shrug off end of stamp duty holiday The unexpected rise in the Nationwide house price index in February adds to the growing pile of evidence that the stamp duty holiday is just one of several reasons behind the recent …
2nd March 2021
Lending remained strong as buyers hoped to elude stamp duty Mortgage approvals remained at very high levels in January as buyers hoped to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday. But there are growing signs that demand may be resilient to the end of the …
1st March 2021
Housing market cooling sharply The January RICS survey suggests that the housing market has embarked on the next leg of its journey through the pandemic. The lockdown and the looming end of the stamp duty holiday have caused a sharp drop in buyer demand …
11th February 2021