Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Rising mortgage rates will sustain downward trend in approvals While mortgage approvals ticked up in July, that only reversed a fraction of their previous decline. And the drag on buyer demand from the ongoing increase in mortgage rates and surging …
30th August 2022
Limited supply supporting pricing for now The RICS survey showed that weaker demand has not yet fed through to falls in prices, but sales volumes are beginning to wilt. We think it is just a matter of time before prices follow activity lower. The new …
11th August 2022
House prices stall Like Nationwide, Halifax reported that house price growth ground to a halt in July. As these house price indices are based on mortgage approvals, its possible that affordability rules put a temporary brake on prices. But equally it …
5th August 2022
Optimism misplaced as activity slows The fourth consecutive decline in the headline construction PMI took the index below 50 for the first time since January 2021. While driven by an idiosyncratic drop in civil engineering activity, the upbeat new orders …
4th August 2022
Increases in house prices slow to a crawl While the rise in the annual rate of house price growth from 10.7% in June to 11.0% in July will make most of the headlines that was driven by base effects. Instead, we think the main takeaway from the July …
2nd August 2022
Slip in mortgage approvals in June a sign of the slump to come Mortgage approvals slipped back to below 2019 levels in June supporting our view that higher interest rates will cause housing market activity to slump over the next two years. Indeed, further …
29th July 2022
Lenders to tighten credit standards even as demand softens The Q2 credit conditions survey shows that lenders will not loosen credit conditions to keep the house price boom going like they did in 2004-2007. Indeed, despite the fact demand is expected to …
14th July 2022
Economic reality finally catching up with the housing market There was an unmistakeable cooling in the housing market in June as the new buyer enquiries balance slipped further into negative territory. With mortgage rates continuing to rise and the …
18-year high house price inflation will mark the peak The substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in June was surprising given the softening in the Nationwide figures in the same month, and the deterioration in leading indicators of housing …
7th July 2022
Slowdown in construction activity intensifies in June The third consecutive monthly fall in the construction PMI suggests that that growth in development activity is slowing. The near-term outlook has also deteriorated, with growth in new orders easing …
6th July 2022
Weak approvals point to subdued lending demand ahead Mortgage approvals remained relatively weak in May supporting our view that higher interest rates are now starting to curb activity. As mortgage rates are set to rise further over the next year, this …
1st July 2022
More evidence of easing house price growth Monthly house price inflation slowed in June to its lowest since last September according to the Nationwide, while the annual rate continued to edge lower. That is consistent with our view of steady deceleration …
30th June 2022
Mortgage rates to continue to rise as lenders rebuild margins The detailed quarterly mortgage lending data from the Bank of England confirmed that the squeeze on lenders margins intensified at the start of the year, suggesting that mortgage rates will …
14th June 2022
Gathering evidence that the market is on the turn Softening demand in the RICS survey is a sure sign that rising mortgage rates are now putting prospective buyers off. Together with steady supply, that left the survey consistent with house prices …
9th June 2022
Construction sentiment worsens as economic headwinds mount The second consecutive fall in the construction PMI in May points to a sustained slowdown in development activity. And with the new orders balance easing and optimism of future demand declining, a …
8th June 2022
Momentum in house prices remains strong for now The slight easing in the Halifax measure of annual house price inflation reflects an outsize increase in prices a year earlier rather than any loss of momentum. But there are signs that rising mortgage rates …
More evidence that house price increases have peaked There was another slowdown in the annual rate of house price inflation in May according to the Nationwide. That was in line with our expectation of sustained slowdown through the rest of the year, …
1st June 2022
Approvals drop back to pre-COVID-19 levels in April The drop in mortgage approvals in April provided early evidence that interest rate increases are starting to hurt activity. As we expect the rises in both policy and mortgage rates to continue apace over …
31st May 2022
Rising mortgage rates not yet hurting demand The housing market shrugged off the effects of rising mortgage rates and the cost-of-living crisis in April as intense competition between buyers bid up prices further. However, with mortgage rates set to …
12th May 2022
Reality bites as PMI shows signs of a slowdown in activity The construction PMI for April showed that building activity remained solid, but that the pace of growth has slowed. An easing in new orders growth also hints at a further slowdown ahead, as the …
6th May 2022
A strong April, but approaching a turning point In contrast to Nationwide’s measure of house price inflation, there was no sign of house price growth slowing in the Halifax figures for April. But with mortgage rates only just starting to climb to reflect …
Robust for now Unchanged mortgage approvals in March showed that the housing market remained buoyant throughout the first quarter. But the emerging trend of rising mortgage rates on new loans rising will only accelerate, which will reduce demand and …
4th May 2022
Signs the housing market is turning the corner mount The slowdown in house price inflation in April adds to signs that the housing market is beginning to cool and suggests that the peak in house price inflation is now behind us. We expect house prices to …
29th April 2022
Rising market rates tighten conditions Banks expect mortgage availability to fall back in Q2 as lenders push up borrowing rates to reflect increases in Bank Rate, but other lending criteria are expected to be stable or loosen. The availability of mortgage …
14th April 2022
Signs of a more balanced market emerging The latest RICS survey brought early signs that, having been a sellers’ market for the past two years, the balance is shifting. That suggests we are right to expect a moderation in house price growth in the second …
Still no sign of house price growth cooling Another large jump in house prices in March kept Halifax’s measure of house price inflation comfortably in double figures. With competition between buyers still intense, house price inflation could remain high …
7th April 2022
PMI results mixed, with more concern on the horizon The continued strength of the construction PMI in March suggests that activity in the sector increased despite ongoing headwinds from supply constraints and cost inflation. The rise in new orders …
6th April 2022
House price growth hits 18-year high, but slowdown expected The acceleration in house price growth to an 18-year high of 14.3% will add to concerns that the pandemic housing market boom is getting out of hand. With mortgage rates rising, house price …
31st March 2022
Decline provides an early sign that demand has begun to wane Higher than usual home moving activity ensured that mortgage approvals remained substantially above pre-virus levels in February. But the decline compared to January could be an early sign that …
29th March 2022
No let-up in housing market activity The February RICS residential survey continued to point to resilience in UK housing markets. New enquiries remained strong and, while there is some evidence that supply constraints may be easing at last, the number of …
10th March 2022
Lending set to rebound after stamp duty related pause While mortgage lending was softer at the end of last year that largely reflected the jolt from the ending of stamp duty discounts. More recent data point to very strong market activity in early 2022 …
8th March 2022
House price inflation reaches 15-year high The gain in house prices reported by Halifax for February pushed the annual rate to 10.8%, its highest since June 2007. With new supply limited and mortgage rates still relatively low, we suspect that house price …
7th March 2022
PMI rises further as housing activity accelerates The construction PMI rose to its highest level in eleven months in February. Although encouraging, supply constraints remain a major impediment and input costs high, which we think will limit growth in the …
4th March 2022
House prices not headed for a bust following pandemic boom The further substantial rise in house prices in February took the increase since the pandemic began to a round 20% and begs the question whether house prices are getting too high. While we do …
2nd March 2022
More evidence that home movers remain active A third consecutive monthly rise in mortgage approvals suggests that housing market activity will remain higher than usual in the coming months as households continue to adjust to remote working. The rise in …
1st March 2022
Housing market remained exceedingly tight at the start of 2022 The largest rise in new buyer enquiries for nine months and a reversal of the December dip in sales volumes confirmed that the housing market remained extremely tight at the start of the year. …
10th February 2022
Slowdown unlikely to signal cooling market yet The smaller gain in house prices in January reported by Halifax is unlikely to mark the start of a sharp deceleration in house price growth. With the supply of homes for sale still very limited and mortgage …
7th February 2022
Housing activity to remain buoyant despite supply challenges The tick up in mortgage approvals in December suggested that the dip in housing market activity expected after the stamp duty holiday has already come and gone, and that transactions will stay …
1st February 2022
House prices continue to surpass expectations There was no cooling in the housing market at the turn of the year, as the Nationwide house price index recorded its largest January increase for 17 years. We suspect that prices will continue to surpass …
Demand-supply imbalance continues to drive up prices The number of homes being listed for sale dropped again in December while demand continued to climb. As a result, we think house prices will continue to rise at pace in the near term. At -14, the new …
20th January 2022
Credit availability to remain good, but mortgage rates to rise The Q4 credit conditions survey suggests that, while credit conditions will remain loose, scope for lenders to absorb further increases in interest rates into their margins has run out. A …
13th January 2022
PMI dips as Omicron and supply constraints take hold The construction PMI declined last month to end the year on a negative note, more than erasing the gain made in November. Despite tentative signs that they are starting to ease, we expect labour and …
7th January 2022
2021 price rise strongest for at least 15 years Another substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in December ensured that the lender agreed with Nationwide that the rise in house prices over the 2021 calendar year was the strongest for at least …
Stabilisation in approvals consistent with robust demand Mortgage approvals stabilised in November, consistent with other evidence that demand remained robust after the stamp duty holiday ended. Even though approvals have softened to a similar level to …
4th January 2022
Continued strength suggests upside to prices in 2022 There was no sign of any let up in the house price boom in November as new buyer enquiries rose again. Another strong survey also suggests that the market could continue to run hot for some time, …
9th December 2021
Quarterly growth takes further step up to post-GFC high The Halifax house price index suggests that not only did the end of the stamp duty holiday fail to dent the market, but that house price growth has since accelerated to a post-financial crisis high. …
7th December 2021
Still no sign of house price growth cooling House prices recorded another above-consensus gain in November as strong buyer demand bid prices up further. There is little sign of that dynamic changing anytime soon, so we expect the consensus forecast for …
1st December 2021
Dip in mortgage approvals after stamp duty holiday ends Mortgage approvals remained robust in October after the end of the stamp duty holiday, only easing back into line with their pre-pandemic average. With demand strong, we suspect that mortgage …
29th November 2021
Market remains tight after stamp duty holiday Rather than representing a “rush before mortgage rates rise”, we suspect that the rise in new buyer interest in October will prove durable. With inventory very limited, that points to house prices rising by …
11th November 2021