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A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the impact on spending would be greater. But so long as the …
4th February 2020
We still think that the ECB will loosen policy this year, albeit by a little less than we had previously pencilled in. But with interest rates and bond yields still set to remain at historic lows, property will continue to look fairly priced. As such, it …
31st January 2020
Although economic growth in Budapest is expected to remain robust this year, weakness in tourism is likely to weigh on prime retail rental values. However, improving global growth should support foreign tourist arrivals from mid-year. Combined with the …
28th January 2020
After holding up despite the slowdown in economic activity, we expect jobs growth in office-based sectors to lose momentum over the next two years, weighing on occupier demand. This underpins our forecast of a slowdown in growth in euro-zone prime office …
22nd January 2020
Although the share of global capital raised by European-focused funds has reduced in the last couple of years, there are indications that investors are starting to view real estate in Europe as increasingly attractive. This supports our view that demand …
20th January 2020
As the slowdown in household spending and the growth in e-commerce weighs on prime retail rents, we think that rents will fall in all Nordic cities this year. While most of continental Europe has been grappling with weakness in the retail sector, much of …
15th January 2020
Despite Spain’s relatively strong economic outlook compared to its European peers, with real prime rents at high levels and the economy losing momentum, we think that prime retail rents will fall in 2020. After growing by around 7% in 2018, there was …
13th January 2020
With interest rates set to stay lower for longer, we think that property yields will decline further in 2020. The exception is retail where, outside of Emerging Europe, yields are expected to rise in response to the bleak rental outlook. Nonetheless, even …
8th January 2020
While we could have been bolder with our forecast for rental growth in Europe, in particular Nordic offices, on the whole our forecasts for 2019 proved to be correct. With 2019 now behind us, it is worth looking back to see how our predictions for the …
7th January 2020
Despite a weaker lira, Istanbul prime office rents have, perhaps surprisingly, held up in the last two years. We expect them to hold steady over the next two years, but beyond 2021, we forecast positive, but feeble, rental growth. Despite 2018’s recession …
23rd December 2019
Although the anaemic performance of the euro-zone economy is expected to weigh on occupier demand, real estate equity markets suggest that confidence in property markets has held up. We think that this will spark an improvement in investment activity next …
18th December 2019
We think that while yield compression across CEE markets has further to go in the next two years, property yields will rise beyond 2021 as tighter monetary policy in the region feeds through. In our recent Valuation Monitor , a fall in bond yields last …
29th November 2019
While the manufacturing downturn has not helped the industrial sector in Germany at a national level, growing e-commerce means that prime industrial rents will still muster some growth over the next few years. Nevertheless, Germany will lag markets like …
22nd November 2019
The Dutch retail sector is grappling with changing consumer habits and will struggle to provide a positive return to investors. But, with online sales set to grow rapidly and supply chains still adjusting, we expect logistics property to perform well in …
11th November 2019
Although occupier demand appears to be holding up in Germany, a combination of structural and cyclical factors has weighed on retail rents. And with meagre economic growth expected until at least the middle of next year, the prospects for retail rents are …
6th November 2019
Office-to-residential conversions in the Nordic capitals have started to lose their appeal given the pick-up in office capital values and softening in house prices. However, we don’t think that this poses a major risk to our forecast for relatively strong …
1st November 2019
While the risk of a no deal Brexit has diminished, lingering uncertainty and structural headwinds are likely to put downward pressure on prime retail rents in Dublin over the next two years. After holding up relatively well compared to its euro-zone …
29th October 2019
As valuations have improved this year and investors have become willing to accept lower yields, demand for quality Paris assets has ballooned, most likely driving a record year for French investment. This has begun to push prime yields lower and we now …
23rd October 2019
We expect the upturn in consumer confidence in Greece this year to feed through to a pick-up in retail sales growth, supporting retailer demand in Athens. Coupled with further yield falls, Athens high street capital values are set to significantly …
18th October 2019
The outperformance of Budapest’s office sector is coming to a close, but we still expect the retail and industrial sectors to beat their CEE peers in terms of total returns. Hungary’s economy has weathered the euro-zone slowdown so far, but we think that …
17th October 2019
Demand for Swedish property has been on a tear this year, even as the economy has faltered. This likely reflects investor expectations that growth will be supported by even looser monetary policy over the next few years. In this environment, competition …
11th October 2019
While Paris prime retail rents rose in 2018, we doubt this marks the start of a prolonged upward trend. With tourist flows set to stagnate due to a weak global economy, rents will not rise by much before 2023, but the continued attraction of Europe’s …
9th October 2019
South Korean capital flows into European commercial property have surged so far this year. Against the backdrop of cheap credit and robust fundamentals in many markets, these flows look set to continue for at least another couple of years. However, …
3rd October 2019
There has been a dramatic expansion in the co-working office sector globally over the last five years. As these operators use a different approach to traditional landlords, this brings new risks to office markets, though we feel it is probably too soon to …
2nd October 2019
A further downgrade to the euro-zone growth outlook means that additional monetary loosening is on the cards. While this doesn’t substantially shift our expectations for property yields over the next few years, it will keep the supply of capital strong …
27th September 2019
Following a bold start to the year, office take-up in Barcelona looks set to record its strongest year since 2005 which, coupled with falling vacancy rates, should boost rental growth. Indeed, Barcelona is set to outperform its peers for the next few …
25th September 2019
Plummeting bond yields in 2019 have dramatically improved property valuations, supporting the outlook for property prices. Indeed, we now think that euro-zone prime office yields can extend their falls over the next few years, taking the total shift in …
28th August 2019
After almost a decade of ultra-low interest rates and rising real estate valuations, concerns have been voiced about the outlook for property. In our view, these worries are not completely unfounded and returns are likely to moderate, but crash fears are, …
21st August 2019
As consumer spending growth slows in Poland, we expect retail spending to slow. The effect of this on physical retail outlets will be compounded in secondary locations by a growing share of sales migrating online, as well as the full implementation of the …
12th August 2019
The latest data for German offices suggest a better-than-expected start to 2019, as a result of solid employment growth and tightening supply. This has led us to revisit our office forecasts for the top cities, though we still expect a slowdown of …
5th August 2019
Commercial property investment activity looks likely to drop back slightly from the highs seen last year. But, rather than pointing to a downturn in pricing, we believe that this reflects investors re-evaluating the implications of the softer …
1st August 2019
We have upgraded our forecasts for Portugal’s economy and now expect growth to be above trend in 2019 and 2020. Along with a halving in the size of the Lisbon office development pipeline in the next few years, this has led us to upgrade our rental growth …
29th July 2019
Since last July, the development pipeline in Brussels has grown and prospects for economic growth and thus, occupier demand have nudged lower. While the low availability of Grade A stock will support prime office rental values, Brussels has lost its …
22nd July 2019
With bond yields falling, euro-zone property yield spreads have widened and remain high by historical standards. Admittedly, not all markets enjoy low bond yields, but even in Italy, where spreads have narrowed the most, we do not see any immediate upward …
18th July 2019
The Czech economy has slowed over the past 18 months, which, alongside strong new development, has kept industrial rents in check. But, with signs of renewed vigour in occupier demand and rents already coming under upward pressure due to rising land and …
16th July 2019
IPF Consensus office rent forecasts for 2019 were generally upgraded in their latest iteration, with central Europe seeing a particularly large rise. We also made widespread upgrades to our forecasts in the same six-month period. While our overall …
10th July 2019
With euro-zone bond yields falling, this creates the potential for a further compression of property yields. In our view, there will not be much of an immediate impact, though it is becoming more likely that any upturn in euro-zone property yields further …
5th July 2019
Paris office take-up is likely to drop back a little this year, but with economic growth staying steady, it’s unlikely to fall off a cliff. A fairly restricted supply outlook means that vacancy can stay close to current lows over the next few years, …
4th July 2019
Prague prime high street yields ticked up in Q1 on the back of stretched pricing. Yet, given that bond yields have fallen and the next move for interest rates is expected to be downwards, we think that this will be the full extent of the correction, and …
25th June 2019
With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the comparison with the long-term average property yield. …
9th January 2019