Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Recent data provide an indication that the virus outbreak will likely result in a faster online transition in Germany. The impact on instore demand will add to the pressures already facing retailers and suggests that there is downside risk to our forecast …
23rd October 2020
Depressed investment activity and a weak rental outlook are set to put upward pressure on office yields. That said, given that prime property values have been slower to adjust than we had initially anticipated, there is a risk that the yield rise we …
22nd October 2020
Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing activity in Q4. With similar strict measures likely in …
16th October 2020
Government action has meant corporate bankruptcies have remained low, which has prevented a sharp rise in tenancy defaults and has supported income security on leases. But, as this support is gradually withdrawn, rising tenancy defaults in a weak occupier …
15th October 2020
The recent strength of retail sales data overstates demand on European prime high streets, with spending by tourists still absent and online purchases making an above-average contribution in most markets. That said, online spending growth has been …
9th October 2020
While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view, but also structural changes which are weighing on the …
1st October 2020
Despite the sharp drop in GDP, the relatively small fall in world trade has meant that industrial rents in port cities held up better than expected during H1. And we think that the ongoing recovery in global trade will prevent rents from falling this …
Recent moves in real estate equity prices suggest that there is upside risk to our forecasts for industrial property values this year. However, even the industrial sector will not be immune if rising virus cases lead to widespread lockdowns. Earlier in …
30th September 2020
The falls recorded so far, most notably in the CEE region, coupled with our view that the initial recovery in retail sales in Europe has started to run out of steam, has prompted us to downgrade our prime retail rental forecasts for the euro-zone and CEE. …
10th September 2020
Although the Norwegian economy is set to contract less sharply than most of Europe this year, the fact that weakness in occupier demand has occurred alongside a large boost to supply means that Oslo prime office rents will decline by a greater extent than …
2nd September 2020
With accommodative monetary policy anchoring bond yields, we think that yield compression in the euro-zone is set to resume next year. But the balance of risks have clearly changed post-virus. Yield rises in the face of the COVID-19 shock were inevitable. …
13th August 2020
Despite sharply lower investment in Q2, solid Q1 activity and the faster-than-expected economic recovery means we now think that total pan-Europe (ex UK) investment in 2020 will be only around 15% lower than its 2019 level. The disruption from the virus …
12th August 2020
Although demand for Romanian industrial space held up in H1, we expect it to weaken over the rest of the year as consumer demand falters and the economy recovers only slowly. Combined with incentives rising and the significant increase in supply in recent …
5th August 2020
We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis will dampen the outlook in the short run, but the less …
4th August 2020
A more favourable economic outlook should support occupier demand and thereby prime Dutch office rents over the next few years. And while the shift to more remote working poses a risk, we think that the Netherlands might be better placed to deal with the …
31st July 2020
The outlook for the Polish economy is better than in much of Europe. However, we still expect retail rents to end the year lower than in 2019, with the recent rebound in retail spending unlikely to be sustained. Despite the Polish economy holding up …
30th July 2020
Although banks expect to tighten lending standards, we think that the underlying situation is much better than pre-GFC and that government schemes will continue to provide support, which should limit financial strains for European property owners. Given …
23rd July 2020
Despite the deterioration in the rental outlook, attractive property valuations justify investor interest in Portugal, especially compared with its southern European peers. CBRE data confirmed that investment in Europe was hit hard in Q2 because of the …
22nd July 2020
Despite the apparent strength of the euro-zone labour market in early Q2 data and the office sector’s inherent resilience, we still expect prime rents to fall this year on the back of the weak economy and uncertainty surrounding the virus. With …
16th July 2020
Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future across the main property types. We start this by …
15th July 2020
The fact that there were signs of improvement in Scandinavian transactions in June provides some hope for the rest of Europe. But overall, commercial property investment will still face an uphill battle as uncertainty lingers and economic activity remains …
8th July 2020
The Swiss labour market is expected to hold up comparatively well this year which would normally bode well for occupier demand. But we expect a shift in bargaining power in favour of the tenant and competition from new supply to contribute to rental …
7th July 2020
While the quicker than anticipated pick-up in high frequency data has meant that the fall in Greek economic activity is likely smaller than initially feared, retail rents are still set to drop sharply this year. The following recovery in Greek rents will …
3rd July 2020
The hit to the luxury retail market and prolonged weakness in international tourism will cause Paris prime retail rents to decline this year for the first time since 2009. Although some rental recovery is expected next year, the virus outbreak has …
2nd July 2020
Even though working from home has meant business as usual for many office occupiers, weak activity elsewhere has still caused euro-zone office output to fall. With the economic recovery expected to be gradual, these linkages to the wider economy will …
11th June 2020
Timely activity indicators suggest that the Scandinavian economies are already on the gradual path to normality, which will provide support to occupier demand and, in turn, prime office rents this year. Scandinavian economies appear to be holding up …
10th June 2020
Markets that are most reliant on international capital will inevitably bear the brunt of the collapse in cross-border flows as investors remain very cautious in the face of COVID-19-related uncertainty. But the relative stability and liquidity of the core …
2nd June 2020
Despite a large share of Milan prime space being pre-let this year, we think that a sharp drop in net absorption will result in prime office rent declines. And we don’t expect rental growth to bounce back, which is consistent with the slow expected …
18th May 2020
Data from Europe suggest that the relationship between working from home and office space per worker is weak. And even if working from home becomes more prevalent in the next few years, we think that the most important driver of occupier demand will be …
11th May 2020
The lack of clear movement in the Q1 commercial property data has put other indicators into focus. These paint a much bleaker picture, particularly for the retail sector. The key Q1 commercial property data have so far held up well. Indeed, prime rents in …
7th May 2020
In light of the pandemic, our forecasts for developed market commercial property returns have been revised lower. Nevertheless, the relativities between the key markets are broadly unchanged, meaning that we still expect the US to outperform the UK and …
6th May 2020
As Germany cautiously eases its lockdown, despite the significant hit to economic activity, the tight supply picture should help support prime office rents across the four main cities this year. Preliminary data for Q1 showed that office take-up across …
1st May 2020
Despite reasonable levels of capital ready to invest and an expected loosening in credit conditions, the sharp deterioration in investor sentiment reinforces our view that euro-zone investment activity will drop by around 40% over the rest of this year. …
30th April 2020
We think that, for the industrial sector, any short-term gain from an increase in online shopping will be outweighed by the plunge in demand and subsequent collapse in global trade. While the industrial sector appears to be more insulated from …
24th April 2020
The uneven economic impact of the coronavirus disruption suggests that property values in Southern European markets will be hit hardest and may take longer to recover than elsewhere in the euro-zone. The data for the first quarter has started trickling …
23rd April 2020
Although retailers in Sweden remain open, early indications suggest that the Stockholm retail sector will still be hit hard in Q2. In fact, we think that the virus outbreak will only accelerate falls in retail rents already expected as a result of the …
16th April 2020
While COVID-19 has forced consumers in southern Europe to shop online, we think that e-commerce penetration will remain lower for structural reasons, which is one reason why prime retail rents in these markets will be more resilient in the long-term. …
14th April 2020
Although property valuations and rental prospects remain supportive, the higher risk premium associated with CEE markets means that property yields are likely to increase more in the near term and to unwind more slowly than in Western European markets. In …
8th April 2020
While COVID-19 related delays to construction might reduce supply in some markets, we think that the drop in occupier demand will far outweigh any potential benefits to rents. The euro-zone headline construction PMI for March, revealed that the index fell …
7th April 2020
While COVID-19 will hit co-working hard, given the relative size of this subsector, we don’t think it will be large enough to impact rents in the overall office sector. WeWork has been gracing headlines again this past week as the co-working firm is …
2nd April 2020
The past relationship suggests that the recent 10% to 50% fall in real estate equity prices provide an indication of the direction values will move in the direct market, but not the likely extent of the falls. Over the past month, real estate equity …
1st April 2020
Property has generally been at the centre of the most severe economic downturns in recent decades. But this time it is different. Although we think the commercial market is likely to experience a sharp jolt in 2020, provided the spread of the virus can be …
26th March 2020
Further falls in yields coupled with robust, albeit slowing, rental growth point to Helsinki offices outperforming the rest of the euro-zone and its Nordic peers for total returns. Commercial property investment in Finland started the year on strong …
11th March 2020
The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively modest. The spread of the coronavirus from Asia into …
6th March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
The recent strength of Milan office take-up has not prevented rental growth slowing and isn’t likely to be sustained in 2020. Indeed, we expect a slowdown in employment growth to weigh on occupier demand. Combined with supply increasing twofold, prime …
Despite softer occupier activity and an increasing pipeline of supply, we think that demand will be strong enough to prop up office rental growth over the next two years. That said, given that we now expect bond yields to be higher, capital value growth …
18th February 2020
Softer office occupier demand is expected to weigh on German prime office rents this year. But we still think that rents can grow at a decent pace because, even though office supply is expected to increase significantly, office occupier demand will still …
14th February 2020
Indicators suggest that Irish industrial rental growth will remain healthy in Q1. However, as economic growth slows and uncertainty about the UK’s future relationship with the EU continues to impact decision making, we expect that industrial rental value …
13th February 2020
The latest data revealed that commercial property investment in the euro-zone held steady at a record high level. And with favourable relative pricing and capital readily available, we think that investment will reach a similar level this year. Following …
6th February 2020