Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
We think that a rebound in employment will help prime office rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid to outperform the euro-zone this year. But this is likely to be short-lived, as the shift to remote working weighs more heavily on office demand in Spain …
8th April 2022
With cyclical pandemic effects fading, the backdrop has improved for Dutch retail. However, having been hardest hit in 2020-21, the structural legacy of COVID-19 and higher economic barriers to conversion mean that the outlook is also weaker for retail in …
4th April 2022
The strength of Prague industrial performance last year exceeded expectations but also left valuations looking highly stretched. While there are risks stemming from trade links with Russia, we think the expectation of solid rental growth will continue to …
31st March 2022
While we don’t think that 2021’s strong pace of prime office rental growth in Amsterdam will be sustained, we still expect growth to outperform the euro-zone over the next couple of years, averaging around 3% a year. Prime office rents in Amsterdam …
9th March 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added significant new uncertainty for investors. We expect Moscow property will take a substantial hit, but the impact on the wider European property market will be limited. We have outlined our initial thoughts about …
28th February 2022
Our forecasts suggest that prime all-property rental growth across the main euro-zone markets is likely to keep pace with inflation in the coming years. However, this is more of a reflection of expected demand and supply conditions, than an indication …
14th February 2022
After a record-breaking 2021, survey evidence points to a strong start to the year for pan-European (excluding UK) investment volumes. With pent-up demand mostly exhausted, we expect transactions to slow in the second half of the year. Nonetheless that …
11th February 2022
The exceptionally strong rebound in commercial property returns has been clear from the middle of last year. While this came earlier than most expected, we think it reflected special conditions and won’t last. Despite increased uncertainty from the …
The recovery in Dublin offices has lagged the broader economic upturn. While demand is expected to improve in 2022, with a full supply pipeline, it is likely that vacancy will stay at relatively high levels over the next two years and rental growth will …
4th February 2022
While the recent improvement in world trade is encouraging for industrial demand in the major port markets, we don’t expect an acceleration in rental growth this year. Supply bottlenecks will still take time to unwind and the low availability of space and …
3rd February 2022
While we think the direct risks to property from the pandemic have reduced, the uncertain impact of structural change and our expectation that interest rates will now be increased from late this year reinforce our view that Stockholm property returns will …
28th January 2022
The early data indicate that Paris offices recovered last year, though much of this reflected strength in the core CBD market. With the economic background supportive and supply relatively contained, we expect further prime office rental growth at a touch …
27th January 2022
While we now expect the ECB to start its tightening cycle earlier, we don’t think the change is significant enough to prevent further property yield compression over 2022-23, albeit at a slower pace than in 2021. We recently revised our ECB policy view …
18th January 2022
Having been hit hard in 2020, improving economic conditions supported flexible office take-up in 2021, albeit caution and consolidation limited the net increase in space. While we expect take-up to remain low compared to the pre-virus period, we think it …
17th January 2022
Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property markets that we cover. This risk varies widely across …
14th January 2022
An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote working, prime high street rental growth is generally …
10th January 2022
We don’t expect slower near-term economic growth to derail the property upturn in 2022. Rather, we think that continued falls in property yields and a rebound in all-property rents will support further increases in capital values. That said, the pace of …
6th January 2022
While office performance surprised on the upside and we could have been much bolder in our forecast for industrial yield falls, our other forecasts for 2021 proved to be broadly correct. With the arrival of a new year, it is always worth looking back to …
5th January 2022
Despite tight supply and the boost to demand from e-commerce, we think Turkey’s recent currency crisis will further weigh on Istanbul industrial rents and that rental growth will slow sharply after this year. Echoing the trend seen elsewhere in Europe, …
23rd December 2021
The pandemic-driven boost in scientific research and development will support demand in the European life science sector, at least for the next few years. This bodes well for several markets we forecast, including Warsaw and Copenhagen. The shift to more …
20th December 2021
The rapid bounce-back in the US economy along with still-loose monetary policy will drive continued strong performance in real estate in 2022, when we expect returns to exceed 12%. That would see the US outperform the UK and euro-zone by 5%-pts and 3%-pts …
15th December 2021
After surprising on the upside this year, we think that the broad-based decline in Central and Eastern European (CEE) property yields will continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. But with higher bond yields eventually weighing on valuations, we …
30th November 2021
The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for the next couple of years. Even so, we still have a more …
15th November 2021
A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of underperformance, our forecasts leave Dutch rental growth …
11th November 2021
The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand, particularly in Frankfurt and Munich. Following the pandemic …
8th November 2021
While the latest virus outbreak has clouded the near-term outlook, a tight supply picture and steady employment growth mean that prime Moscow office rents should return to growth in 2022. Preliminary data revealed that, following a collapse in occupier …
4th November 2021
The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in the office and retail sectors, we think commercial …
28th October 2021
We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become more acute, there is a risk that rents climb higher …
25th October 2021
After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending and keep a lid on rental growth. Following …
21st October 2021
Prime office rental growth in Germany is on track to be stronger than forecast in the near term. However, we think rental growth will slow in the coming years as the supply of modern space is expected to continue to outpace demand, even accounting for a …
20th October 2021
Despite strong demand, we think that high capital values have kept development profitable and have prevented an acceleration in euro-zone prime industrial rental value growth. However, as capital value growth slows there is a risk that some markets will …
15th October 2021
The latest MSCI data show that the wider market has moved roughly in line with our prime data since the onset of the pandemic and provide support to our outlook for property values. The recent release of MSCI’s Pan-European Index for Q2 provides a good …
14th October 2021
We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower than their already weak 2020 levels, before catching up …
8th October 2021
The pandemic and widespread use of remote working appeared to entice some Europeans to leave cities last year. However, the recent improvement in city mobility adds evidence to our view that this would prove short-lived, as cities remain attractive for a …
7th October 2021
Rising government bond yields are set to squeeze valuations, resulting in increases in Oslo all-property yields after 2022. This will weigh on returns for Oslo property in the coming years, with structural headwinds limiting the extent to which rental …
30th September 2021
It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the pre-2007 housing boom, meaning that we do not seem to …
28th September 2021
The positive near-term economic picture means that Bucharest industrial activity will maintain its momentum in H2, but ease further out as spending patterns normalise. But given the city’s large supply pipeline, we expect industrial rents to barely grow …
27th September 2021
The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are unlikely to be severe or lasting. For property investors, …
23rd September 2021
The most recent commercial property data have been surprisingly upbeat and have raised the possibility that the recovery could be stronger than expected. But we think investors may have run ahead of themselves and this trend is unlikely to be sustained …
16th September 2021
With more hybrid working post-pandemic, the view is that office rents will be under pressure for many years. This raises questions about which locations could be more resilient and if rents in central business districts (CBDs) will perform better than …
8th September 2021
Weak near-term rental prospects and squeezed valuations mean that we expect Swiss office returns to perform poorly in the coming years, particularly in Zurich. Swiss office values have been more resilient to the pandemic than we had first expected. Having …
6th September 2021
We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25 period, though this is not enough to reverse the decline …
31st August 2021
We expect prime retail rents in both Lyon and Paris to struggle to make up lost ground this year, and even after a return to growth next year, the pace of increases will be subdued. After falling by 15% y/y last year, prime retail rents in Paris edged …
16th August 2021
Following larger-than-expected falls in Q2 and positive near-term developments, we expect prime office and industrial yields to end the year lower than previously forecast. However, we think prime retail yields will trend upwards again as the impact of …
11th August 2021
Following better-than-expected Q2 data, we have revised up our Helsinki office returns forecasts for this year. And given a robust rental outlook, returns are set to outpace the euro-zone over the next few years. After a fall of nearly 4% last year, 2021 …
6th August 2021
With demand slowly recovering and supply being pushed back, we no longer expect prime office rental falls in the Italian markets this year. However, the outlook is less encouraging, with a slowdown in office-based employment growth, more remote working …
4th August 2021
The Q2 data showed that pan-European (excl. UK) transactions improved after their Q1 lows. But international travel restrictions, structural shifts in the office and retail sectors and tougher credit conditions mean that the recovery in investment …
29th July 2021
More remote working is pushing all occupiers to reassess their office space, but we think that rental growth for prime offices in Brussels should hold up better than the wider market. Following a strong start to the year, the recovery in occupier activity …
22nd July 2021
While longer-term drivers are supportive of flexible offices, we think demand for space will be held back by the slow return of workers to the office, by more competition from home offices and by high levels of cheap, vacant traditional space. A year ago, …
20th July 2021
The slow economic recovery, more remote working and a high supply pipeline are key reasons for our below-consensus forecasts for prime office rental growth in Lisbon in the coming years. As highlighted in a recent Update , we expect weaker growth in …
16th July 2021