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Growth in global steel production slowed in August to 2.6%y/y, but the bigger picture is that it has expanded by a rapid 5.4% y/y in the first eight months of this year. However, we think that growth in demand is slowing, which should eventually lead to …
25th September 2018
Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the prospect of China’s anti-pollution cuts and US tariffs is …
20th September 2018
We think the prices of both gold and silver will rise in 2019 but silver looks set to outperform. It will benefit from its higher beta, a recovery in investor interest and a sharp slowdown in mine supply growth. … Gold/silver price ratio to fall from …
17th September 2018
We had always expected metals prices to decline this year on the back of a slowdown in China’s economy. However, even we have been surprised by the scale of the falls in prices, which we think have been exacerbated by investor selling. In this Metals …
12th September 2018
Previously volatile iron ore prices have barely moved in the last six months. Despite ample supply, strong growth in China’s steel production supported prices. That said, we expect steel output to fall back in the coming months which will lead to lower …
5th September 2018
For the most part, metals prices declined in August in the wake of escalating trade tensions and signs that economic growth in China is losing momentum. Negative investor sentiment exacerbated the moves down in prices. However, we think that, in most …
4th September 2018
World Steel Association data, released earlier this week, showed a 5.8% y/y increase in global steel output in July, driven by higher production in China, India, the US and the EU. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months, which underpins our …
30th August 2018
The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports dropped on signs that the economy is slowing, while India’s imports recovered but from a very low level. Looking ahead, …
28th August 2018
After surging to a seven-year high in mid-April on the back of the US Treasury’s decision to impose sanctions on Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, the price of aluminium has since collapsed. While we expect aluminium to remain under pressure in the short …
23rd August 2018
Global aluminium output was up by nearly 3% y/y in July, owing to higher production in China and India. We had warned that this could happen as the prospect of China’s anti-pollution winter cuts and US sanctions on Russia’s Rusal is encouraging producers …
20th August 2018
While investor sentiment is likely to remain the main driver of copper prices this year, we expect declining supply and growing demand from the green energy sector to give a boost to prices in 2019 and 2020. … Has copper further to …
16th August 2018
Given our view that the dollar will remain strong into 2019 and that growth in jewellery demand will continue to soften, we have recently revised down our end-2018 forecast for the price of gold. That said, we think that the medium-term prospects are much …
15th August 2018
A preference for the US dollar as a safe haven has weighed on gold prices over the past few months. Given our view that the dollar will remain strong into 2019 and that growth in jewellery demand will continue to fall, we have revised down our end-2018 …
9th August 2018
China’s industrial activity held up well in the first half of 2018 but there are now clear signs that the economy is losing momentum, which is likely to prevent any significant gains in industrial metals prices. … China Industrial Metals Demand & Supply …
8th August 2018
Metals prices continued to decline in July on the back of rising trade tensions, concerns about a possible downturn in demand and a deterioration in investor sentiment. We expect prices to remain weak over the coming months as there are now clear signs …
7th August 2018
The prices of most metals have plummeted over the past few months, in large part reflecting the appreciation of the US dollar. But negative investor sentiment exacerbated the moves down in prices. Looking ahead, we expect slower growth in China and an …
3rd August 2018
Global gold demand declined to the lowest level since 2009 in the first half of 2018 and we expect it to remain softover the coming months as a strong dollar, coupled with rising US interest rates, discourage purchases. This underpins our view that the …
2nd August 2018
The price of rhodium has so far been insulated from deteriorating investor sentiment towards platinum group metals (PGMs) more generally. While rhodium is still likely to outperform its sister metals this year, we think that slower economic growth in …
27th July 2018
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.8% y/y increase in global steel production in June, driven by higher output in China, India and Japan. We expect this trend to continue over the coming months, which underpins our bearish view on prices this …
26th July 2018
The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports continued to soar on the back of strong wholesale consumption, while India’s imports remained more subdued. Looking …
Global aluminium output was down by nearly 3% y/y in June, owing to lower Chinese production and outages in Canada and Brazil. We think that supply will pick up in the third quarter – ahead of China’s anti-pollution curbs on activity during the winter and …
20th July 2018
A stronger dollar and lower economic growth in some of the largest consumers should have a negative impact on demand for gold, which could add to the downward pressure on prices. But for now, we still expect that demand for safe havens and inflation …
16th July 2018
Trade tensions between the US and China have escalated further in recent weeks, prompting sharp declines in the prices of industrial metals. In this Metals Watch we look at the reasons why metals prices have been hit particularly hard and determine …
13th July 2018
Profit-taking and deteriorating investor sentiment were the main drivers of the recent fall in the price of cobalt. As such, for now, we are sticking with our end-year forecast of $100,000 per tonne. However, if the US were to impose tariffs on auto …
10th July 2018
Despite mounting trade tensions, the price of gold has slumped in recent weeks prompting some commentators to question its safe-haven appeal. While we expect gold to remain under pressure in the short term, the longer-term prospects for prices are much …
6th July 2018
Metals prices were caught up in the general market sell-off following the ramping up of tensions between the US and China in June. (See Chart.) Signs of softer economic growth in China also contributed to the negative investor sentiment towards metals. We …
4th July 2018
With anti-diesel sentiment unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, we expect the price of platinum to continue to trade at a discount to palladium until 2020 when a combination of demand and supply factors should push it back to a slight premium. However, the …
28th June 2018
The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports rose strongly in May on the back of robust wholesale consumption, while India’s imports remain subdued. Looking forward, …
26th June 2018
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 6.6% y/y increase in global steel production in May, driven by higher output in China, India, Japan and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the coming months, which is a key reason behind our bearish …
25th June 2018
The prices of industrial metals have been caught up in the general market sell-off following the ramping up of trade tensions between the US and China. We expect prices to continue to trend lower over the coming months even if fears of a trade war fade. … …
21st June 2018
Global aluminium output ticked up in May, driven by higher production in Asia ex-China and the GCC. We expect growth in output to accelerate over the coming months as higher prices and the prospect of US sanctions on Russia prompt producers elsewhere to …
20th June 2018
Tensions between the US and China have escalated over the past few days, with both countries announcing hefty tariffs. Yet, the price of gold fell on the news. In this Metals Watch we first look at the reasons why the gold price did not behave as we had …
19th June 2018
Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold edged higher following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates for the second time this year. But we don’t think this is the start of a rally. In contrast, we are more positive on the …
14th June 2018
The ongoing wage negotiations at several copper mines are likely to keep prices well supported in the short term. However, we think that growing supply and only subdued demand will weigh on copper prices in the second half of the year. … Copper rally …
12th June 2018
While a jump in US Treasury yields has weighed on the price of gold over the past month, the price of silver has rallied. However, we doubt that silver will outperform gold for long. … Silver’s outperformance won’t …
7th June 2018
Over the past month, the price of lead has surged. This appears to be the result of a clampdown on recycling plants in China, which has reduced scrap lead supply since the start of the year. However, we still think that prices will fall back over the …
6th June 2018
For the most part, metals prices rose in May despite the dollar appreciation. Robust demand and tighter supply buoyed the prices of aluminium, nickel and lead. However, we still think that slower credit growth in China will weigh on activity and …
5th June 2018
Tighter supply and strong demand have led to a rapid drawdown of nickel exchange stocks and given a lift to prices. But with supply starting to pick up and more subdued demand growth, we expect the price of nickel to fall back in the second half of this …
31st May 2018
President Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on US steel imports has sent the price of US hot-rolled coiled steel skyrocketing. But how sustainable is the rally in prices? In this Metals Watch we take a closer look at the recent developments in the …
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.1% y/y increase in global steel production in April, driven by higher output in China, India, the EU and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the coming months, which underpins our bearish view on …
25th May 2018
Investor sentiment in the metals markets has deteriorated since the start of 2018, although more so for precious metals than industrial. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have recently turned bearish and, in most cases, stocks are building. …
Global aluminium output fell slightly in April. This was largely the result of lower production in North America, where temporary disruptions weighed on supply, and Western Europe. We expect growth in output to pick up pace over the coming months as …
21st May 2018
The recent fall has brought the price of gold close to our end-2018 forecast of $1,300. While Fed policy tightening is usually negative for gold prices, higher demand for inflation hedges and a weaker dollar should prevent prices from falling much further …
17th May 2018
Total exchange stocks of most industrial metals have fallen over the past month but cancelled warrants have in most cases also declined, which points to lacklustre demand. Aluminium and tin were the main exceptions. We expect inventories to build over the …
14th May 2018
Supply of platinum group metals (PGMs) is likely to fall in 2018, as reserve depletion in South Africa takes its toll. Nonetheless, we expect prices to decline from current levels as demand is also softening. … More downside ahead for …
10th May 2018
After two years of sizeable deficits, there are signs that the tightness in the zinc market is easing, which explains why prices have fallen sharply since the start of the year. We think that prices will decline further over the coming months as supply …
After two years of declines, we expect silver mine supply to pick up in 2018 as higher industrial metals prices encourage by-product output. This is one reason behind our relatively bearish view on silver prices this year. … Silver mine supply to bounce …
8th May 2018
Global gold demand fell sharply in Q1, primarily owing to lower investment. We expect demand to remain subdued as Fed tightening raises the opportunity cost of holding an asset like gold which bears no interest. This is one reason behind our relatively …
3rd May 2018
April was a month of two halves for most metals. The imposition of US sanctions on Russia sent the prices of several industrial and precious metals – notably aluminium, nickel and palladium – surging in the first half of April. But as the worst fears of …
2nd May 2018
Despite the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US, the price of gold has proved particularly resilient so far this year. We think that strong safe-haven demand on the back of heightened geopolitical risk has been a key factor sustaining prices. In …
30th April 2018