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Aluminium output still growing despite China fears August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think that …
20th September 2021
Global steel output to be weaker in the second half of 2021 A slump in China’s steel production in July led to a dramatic slowdown in growth in global steel output. While China’s production may stabilise or rebound a little in the coming months, it …
24th August 2021
Concerns over aluminium supply look misplaced Aluminium prices have recently been supported by reports that government-imposed power rationing has weighed on production in China, but there is little evidence of this in the latest data for July. This …
20th August 2021
Further evidence of a slowdown in China’s steel production Growth in global steel production remained in double digits in June, but this largely reflects the low base for comparison from last year. Meanwhile, government-imposed environmental controls in …
23rd July 2021
Production growth to accelerate as curbs on power in China are eased Global aluminium output growth softened in June, largely due to power cuts in China’s key aluminium-producing province of Yunnan. But these curbs have started to be relaxed in recent …
20th July 2021
Growth in China’s steel output is slowing Growth in global steel production is still running high in year-on-year terms owing to the low base a year earlier. However, daily production in May was somewhat lower than April, as output in China dipped. We …
22nd June 2021
Global production to edge higher in the coming months Average daily global aluminium production edged up in May as smelters continued to take advantage of high prevailing prices. We think that production will rise further in the near future . According to …
21st June 2021
Global production rising, despite lockdowns Global steel production rose again in April as lower output in India, in particular, was offset by sizeable jumps in production in China, Russia and Brazil. For now, virus-containment measures remain a key …
21st May 2021
High prices to incentivise production growth Average daily global aluminium production was unchanged in April, but we continue to expect that output will increase this year given current high prices and premiums . According to the International Aluminium …
20th May 2021
Nearing the peak in China’s production Global steel production continued to rise in March, no doubt incentivised by high prices. Growth in demand in some key markets, such as the US and China, has been strong, but we suspect that production in China will …
22nd April 2021
Global aluminium production likely to push higher before long Daily aluminium production dropped back a bit in March. But with prices currently at multi-year highs, and only very piecemeal restrictions on output in China, we doubt it will be long before …
20th April 2021
Headwinds to China’s steel output growth on the rise Growth in global steel production declined in February y/y. And though base effects will distort growth rates for a while yet, we reckon that China’s steel output growth will start to slow before long . …
23rd March 2021
Global aluminium output growth shows no signs of slowing Average daily global aluminium production inched up in February. And with ShFE and LME prices at multi-year highs, we expect production to continue growing in 2021 . According to the International …
22nd March 2021
Steel output outside China to revive further in coming months Growth in global steel production slowed in January, as China’s output growth fell back. However, output ex-China picked up and we expect further gains in the coming months, not least because …
25th February 2021
Slower production growth in China on the cards in 2021 Growth in global steel production climbed in December, once again led by a rise in China’s output. We expect growth in China’s output to slow in 2021, while ex-China output should recover lost ground. …
26th January 2021
China-led increase in global output to continue in 2021 Global aluminium production grew again in December. After a stellar 2020, we suspect that China will continue to lead the way in dragging global aluminium output growth even higher in 2021 . …
20th January 2021
China steel production to bounce back soon Growth in global steel production fell in November, in part because cold weather in China weighed on construction activity there. Nevertheless, we expect global output to remain high in 2021 as elevated prices …
22nd December 2020
China production boom will continue Global aluminium production held up well in November and, given the recent surge in prices, will almost certainly increase in the coming months . According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global …
21st December 2020
Vaccine rollout will boost global production Despite the slight fall in China, global steel production continued to rise in October and will probably increase further in the year ahead providing that the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines is successful . …
24th November 2020
China aluminium production to hold up, despite winter curbs Ongoing strength in China’s aluminium production meant that global aluminium output continued to grow in October. And despite the winter environmental restrictions in China, supply there is set …
20th November 2020
China to remain the only bright spot for some time Growth in global steel production accelerated in September. However, all the growth was in China’s output. It looks increasingly likely that a revival in production elsewhere will have to wait until 2021 …
23rd October 2020
China’s aluminium output set to climb even higher Growth in global aluminium production accelerated in September, led by robust output gains in China and Canada. Capacity additions in China should mean that global output continues to rise in the fourth …
20th October 2020
Headwinds rising for global steel production Global steel production continued to recover in August. However, new regulatory measures affecting the property market in China – along with the re-introduction of virus-related restrictions elsewhere – could …
24th September 2020
China to continue to prop up global supply Global aluminium output remained strong in August. Production should rise in the coming months as new capacity comes on stream in China, which should act as a lid on prices . According to the International …
21st September 2020
Imports to remain weak for some time yet Despite a bounce-back in India’s imports of gold last month, China’s imports remained in the doldrums. Gold imports by both countries should rise in the months ahead, but a full recovery still appears to be a long …
25th August 2020
Boom in Chinese production to continue The contraction in global steel production continued to ease in July. This improvement remains led by a surge in Chinese production resulting from a state-sponsored rise in infrastructure spending, which is set to be …
24th August 2020
Robust supply to continue to weigh on the aluminium price The continued increase in production in July helps to explain why the price of aluminium has been a relative underperformer so far this year. And with yet more additions to China’s smelting …
20th August 2020
China’s bounce-back won’t be replicated elsewhere The contraction in global steel production eased for the second month in a row in June, offering further evidence that the worst of the downturn is now behind us. But global steel production will take much …
23rd July 2020
Downside risks to output growing, but market to remain oversupplied Global aluminium output growth slowed slightly in June. However, given the colossal hit to demand seen in the first half of the year, we still expect the market to be hugely oversupplied …
20th July 2020
Recovery in physical gold demand to take some time Imports of gold into China and India in May were little changed from the previous month and continue to paint a grim picture for physical demand in the world’s top gold importing nations . We expect …
25th June 2020
Past the worst, but output still likely to contract this year In a pattern that has become all too familiar, steel output grew in May in China but fell sharply elsewhere. We expect steel output both in and outside China to pick up in the months ahead, but …
22nd June 2020
Stronger than expected Chinese recovery to keep market well-supplied Global aluminium output growth picked up a little pace in May. With demand in China now increasing quicker than we had previously expected, it is likely that Chinese aluminium output …
Imports likely to have troughed in April, but any improvement to be gradual The latest data couldn’t be clearer: gold demand in the top two importing nations all but vanished in April. Imports should rise in the months ahead but will remain low by past …
26th May 2020
China’s dominance over global steel supply to grow The latest data add to the evidence of a growing divergence in the trend in steel output between China and the rest of the world. And as infrastructure spending in China is stepped up over the coming …
22nd May 2020
Significant output cuts still look unlikely Global aluminium output growth slowed further in April. However, with demand in China now picking up as its economy emerges from lockdown, the possibility of substantial output declines there appears slim. …
20th May 2020
India’s gold imports to test historic lows Imports of gold into China and India continued to contract at a double-digit pace in March. But the plunge in physical demand has had little impact on the gold price, as it has been outweighed by strong …
27th April 2020
2020 contraction now firmly on the cards Global steel output declined in March in year-on-year terms. And all the signs suggest that worse is yet to come. As we had previously argued, the first global contraction in steel production for five years is now …
22nd April 2020
Output growth slows, but not by enough Aluminium output growth slowed last month. But with demand for aluminium collapsing, nothing short of a huge contraction in output will do enough to prevent stocks from piling up. Such a fall in supply still seems a …
20th April 2020
2020 contraction still looks likely Global steel output was reasonably resilient in February. But that follows substantial downward revisions to the January figures. And while policy support – particularly in China – may boost steel production later this …
23rd March 2020
Rising supply to exacerbate stocks glut Despite alarm bells ringing for global aluminium demand, output growth continued to gather pace in February. This will only have added to the piles of unwanted inventory and is another reason to expect that, once …
20th March 2020
China production strength is old news China continued to prop up global steel production growth in January, though output growth in the US and Japan also improved. However, January’s data fail to fully reflect the impact of measures to contain the …
25th February 2020
A better start to the year, all things considered After falling for the first time in a decade in 2019, global aluminium production started 2020 on a better footing. In contrast to other metals, we don’t think coronavirus containment measures will hamper …
20th February 2020
Little joy in store for steel production in 2020 China continued to diverge from the rest of the world in December, with steel output rising sharply. In contrast, other major producers continue to feel the pain of weak demand and oversupply. However, we …
27th January 2020
Signs of hope heading into 2020 Global aluminium production for December rounded off a dismal 2019, but we think the prospects for output in 2020 are a bit brighter. The main positive contributions are likely to come from China, the GCC and Russia, which …
20th January 2020
Weaker demand and output cuts to further weigh on production Global steel output dropped in m/m terms in November, led by China. We think that global production will remain weak in the coming months due to softer demand growth and pre-announced output …
20th December 2019
Global output to bounce back in 2020 Global aluminium production continued to falter in November, largely due to another sharp fall in Chinese output. But additions to China’s capacity coupled with a resumption of shuttered smelters should lay the …
Sluggish demand is being reflected in falling supply Global steel production continued to contract y/y in October, and we think it will remain weak in the coming months given subdued economic growth in key consuming regions . The World Steel Association …
26th November 2019
Few signs of a rebound in imports around the corner Gold imports by China and India remained at historically low levels in October. Our view is that the gold price rally is now behind us, and that ongoing weakness in consumer demand will be one of the …
25th November 2019
Global production may have turned a corner Global aluminium output ticked up on a monthly basis in October, in large part due to the ongoing ramp-up of new capacity in Bahrain. It now looks likely that global production will be broadly flat this year as …
20th November 2019
Output to pick up from here, but not by much Temporary shutdowns in China and Japan caused annual growth in global steel production growth to contract in September. We expect production to bounce back a little as these temporary factors fade, though …
25th October 2019