Filtered by Subscriptions: Metals Use setting Metals
Stripping away calendar effects, global aluminium production increased slightly last month. We expect output to continue to grow steadily this year, mostly in response to rising demand in China. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), …
20th March 2023
While commodity prices have also been caught up in the chaos stemming from the banking sector turmoil, so far the impact hasn’t been too alarming as price falls for most commodities haven’t been overly large. Where those falls have been greatest, such as …
17th March 2023
Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress. There has been a renewed fall in commodity prices …
16th March 2023
Demand growth for industrial metals slowed to a halt at the end of last year. Even with some more recent improvements in advanced economy activity growth, metals demand probably kicked off the year on a weak note. Coupled with the prospect of “higher for …
9th March 2023
The National People’s Congress (NPC) reports struck a cautious note on the outlook for economic activity in China this year. Fiscal stimulus will be limited and efforts to prevent “disorderly” expansion in the property sector are to continue. That said, …
8th March 2023
Overview – We think prices will drop a little further in the coming months as economic slowdowns in advanced economies weigh on commodities demand, even as China’s economic recovery takes hold. However, the prospect of a higher for longer Federal Funds …
2nd March 2023
Global steel output remained depressed in January and is unlikely to pick up markedly in the coming months. However, a rebound in China’s demand and lower power costs in Europe should prompt some recovery in supply later in the year. The World Steel …
22nd February 2023
The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further, however, the potential for a full and rapid recovery is …
Aluminium production to slowly increase this year Global aluminium production fell slightly in January compared to December, although the bigger picture is one of fairly steady production since the middle of last year. We expect production to respond to …
20th February 2023
A combination of higher interest rates and rising raw material prices have interrupted the long-term declines in the costs of renewables and battery power, and could push costs up further in the near term. However, such pressures will dissipate as policy …
16th February 2023
Anecdotal reports and high frequency data suggest that ongoing civil unrest in Peru is beginning to choke off activity at key copper mines. But, if recent history is anything to go by, output can rebound rapidly so long as any closures are brief. The …
15th February 2023
Overview – We think prices will ease back in the coming months as optimism about China’s reopening is tempered and slower economic activity in advanced economies weighs on demand. However, the prospect of Fed easing and stronger economic growth in 2024 …
3rd February 2023
The global supply of platinum group metals is likely to be increasingly strained by electricity shortages in South Africa. This poor supply outlook is a key reason why we forecast the prices of these metals to remain high over the next year or so, even as …
Global steel supply to remain subdued in early 2023 Global steel output slumped in December and fell sharply in 2022 as a whole. With demand likely to be weak, at least in the first half of 2023, we do not expect a marked rebound any time soon. The World …
31st January 2023
Demand growth for industrial metals slowed sharply late last year. But attention is now geared towards the rebound in China’s metal demand. We think there is a good chance that the rebound disappoints. The CE Demand Proxies are our attempt to gauge the …
27th January 2023
While China’s reopening has improved the prospects for copper demand, the price has, in our view, surged by more than can be justified by developments there alone. We expect the copper price to drop back over the next few months as several advanced …
24th January 2023
Aluminium production growth to struggle in 2023 Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2% in 2022 from 2.7% in 2021. We forecast that weaker output growth in China and another difficult year in Europe will lead to even softer growth this year. …
20th January 2023
Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country’s key industries, such as mining and tourism. Peru’s …
16th January 2023
China’s rapid reopening and the likelihood of policy stimulus there has improved the macro-economic backdrop for commodities in 2023. But with developed economies in recession, and a somewhat stronger dollar and weaker US equities in Q1, we think a …
Demand growth for industrial metals slowed in October and almost certainly weakened further last month. We expect demand growth to remain sluggish, or even contract, in the first half of 2023 as the global economy slides into recession, whereas investors …
23rd December 2022
Unusually, investors have been reducing their net-long position in the oil futures market, but increasing their position in industrial metals. We suspect this reflects optimism about China reopening at a time when the global economy is entering …
22nd December 2022
Global steel supply well and truly in the doldrums Global steel output is now firmly in contractionary territory by any measure. With several headwinds unlikely to relent soon, it is likely that output will weaken even further from here. Figures released …
Aluminium production in decline, despite positive base effects A low base in 2021 is driving an increase in global aluminium output this year, but the bigger picture is that growth in supply is slowing as high power costs and soft demand take their …
20th December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown will be …
16th December 2022
This is part of a series of reports outlining our key macro and market calls for 2023. Click here to view the full series. We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in …
The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI , released today, rose from 49.2 in October to …
1st December 2022
Metals demand growth improved markedly in the third quarter, but demand is unlikely to hold up as global economic activity deteriorates further. Our Capital Economic Demand Proxies, which we update every month here , aim to gauge the true state of …
24th November 2022
Industrial metal prices are starting to come under pressure again, after rallying by 10% in the first two weeks of November. We think that weak global demand will drag prices lower over the next few months. After rallying to a five month high, …
23rd November 2022
Cracks in global steel supply widening Global steel production growth is deteriorating a bit faster than we had thought. Even very flattering base effects failed to keep steel output growth in positive territory. With global economic activity weakening …
22nd November 2022
Weak demand and high energy costs weighing on aluminium output While the latest year-on-year increase in global aluminium production is suggestive of an improving supply environment, output actually fell in absolute terms and probably has further to …
21st November 2022
The global recession will drag on zinc consumption even further in the coming months, probably leading to renewed price declines. But, towards the end of 2023, supply concerns should push the price higher. Even though the price of zinc has risen recently, …
11th November 2022
China’s latest trade figures point to weak commodity demand both domestically and globally. Given that we don’t expect the slowdown in global economic growth to trough until early next year, we think commodity demand will remain subdued for a while …
7th November 2022
Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should increase next year. We forecast prices to rise from $1,630 and …
3rd November 2022
Overview – Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and product exports, coupled with the output quota cut …
31st October 2022
The outlook for commodity prices has rarely felt more complex: while a looming global recession is set to drag on demand, the ongoing war in Ukraine is likely to mean some markets will remain jumpy over supply concerns. What will this all mean for prices …
China aside, steel production is in decline Although base effects will boost output in y/y terms in the final months of this year, the bigger picture is that slower economic activity and still-high energy costs will weigh on global steel demand and output …
25th October 2022
As the global economy tips into recession, aluminium demand growth will remain weak next year. However, we think supply growth will be even softer, pushing stocks lower and the price higher. The aluminium price has fallen sharply since surging in the wake …
20th October 2022
China drives global production growth, for now The acceleration in year-on-year production growth in September paints a prettier picture of supply than reality. The global economic downturn and high energy prices will weigh on supply from here. …
We suspect that the reduced liquidity of inflation-protected Treasuries vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts is one reason why the price of gold has not fallen as much as might have been expected in the face of a surge in long-dated TIPS yields. …
14th October 2022
Central banks have the tools to deal with liquidity crises arising from rising interest rates and falling asset prices. Instead, the bigger threat is that higher interest rates produce large and simultaneous falls in asset prices that threaten the …
11th October 2022
Industrial metals prices rose following the release of the latest survey data on China’s manufacturing sector. But the average of the headline PMIs continued to decline, as did the average of the forward-looking export order PMIs. This suggests to us, at …
30th September 2022
With the global electronics sector struggling and the more general global economic backdrop deteriorating, we think the silver price will remain under pressure over the rest of this year. The silver price has fallen fairly consistently over the past six …
27th September 2022
Supply ticked up, but the bigger picture is of weak steel output A pick-up in supply from China boosted global steel production in August. However, with economic activity starting to slow and high energy costs across the world, the outlook is for steel …
22nd September 2022
The supply outlook continues to worsen Global aluminium production rose at a slightly faster pace in August than in July, as Chinese production picked up and helped to compensate for a steeper reduction in European output. However, it looks as though …
20th September 2022
Overview – Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect industrial metals prices to fall further given …
14th September 2022
We forecast palladium demand to pick up slightly over the next two years, while supply growth is set to remain muted, keeping the market in a deficit throughout. Continued drawdowns of stocks over that period therefore make it likely that prices, …
24th August 2022
Production stuck in low gear Global steel production fell at a faster pace in July. The latest data are broadly consistent with our view that supply will fall this year, which should put a floor under prices even with soft demand . The World Steel …
23rd August 2022
The supply outlook has deteriorated Global aluminium production rose at a slightly slower pace in July, mostly because production in North America fell at a faster clip, while output in Europe continued to slump. Production growth could slow further this …
22nd August 2022
Having fallen sharply in Q2, we think that the gold price is now close to a cyclical trough. What’s more, the price should revive a little in 2023 as markets factor in the prospect of US monetary tightening . We always expected the price of gold to fall …
3rd August 2022
China’s PMIs fell in July, weighed down by soft export orders. However, we think that China’s economy troughed in H1 2022, and that a modest pick-up in H2 should give some support to commodities prices . China’s official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs …
1st August 2022
