Filtered by Subscriptions: Energy Use setting Energy
The price of Pacific coal has surged to just over $100 per tonne for the first time since 2019. We think that the price will remain elevated for the rest of this year in large part owing to strong demand . Despite China’s unofficial ‘ban’ on coal imports …
25th May 2021
Curtailment of refinery activity to boost crude stocks next week US commercial crude stocks increased last week as inventories continue to be drawn down from the US government’s strategic reserves. We expect commercial crude stocks to rise further next …
19th May 2021
A revival of the nuclear deal with Iran would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted, boosting the country’s oil production and weighing on prices. By contrast, while we still expect Iranian output to increase if a deal isn’t agreed, we think this would …
17th May 2021
Biden’s infrastructure package is ambitious, but we doubt it will pass in its current form If it did pass, the impact on energy markets could be large But we doubt it would be too significant for industrial metals markets In this Commodities Watch , we …
14th May 2021
Pipeline shutdown may push crude stocks back up US commercial crude stocks held fairly steady last week despite a collapse in exports. While both exports and product demand will probably increase over the coming weeks, crude stocks may have actually risen …
12th May 2021
Compliance could start to slip later this year OPEC’s overall production was largely unchanged in April, as most producers remained disciplined. However, compliance could slip later in the year if we are right and there is a surge in demand . The OPEC …
11th May 2021
Crude oil export surge unlikely to last for long US crude stocks plummeted last week primarily because net imports nosedived to a record low. While net imports will probably recover in the coming weeks as exports ease back, we think that crude stocks will …
5th May 2021
We think that the absence of pipeline capacity constraints, a strong recovery in US oil demand, and increased output from OPEC+ members will all help to ensure that the Brent-WTI price spread remains narrow over at least the next year or so . Aside from …
Overview – The rebound in global economic activity this year will lead to a strong pick-up in demand for energy commodities. Arguably, this has already happened in the gas and coal markets as industrial activity has revived in both China and some …
4th May 2021
Decline in stocks should resume before long US crude commercial stocks stabilised last week, but we think they will resume their decline before long as product demand benefits from the easing of virus-related restrictions. The EIA’s weekly US Petroleum …
28th April 2021
Gasoline demand to continue to rise US crude commercial stocks rose a touch last week, but we expect them to fall in the coming weeks as product demand picks up in tandem with the progressive easing of lockdowns . The EIA’s weekly US Petroleum Report, …
21st April 2021
US oil demand on the road to recovery Last week’s fall in crude stocks in the US was the result of higher demand rather than lower supply. This bodes well for our view that a relatively strong economic recovery in the US will boost oil demand there, …
14th April 2021
OPEC oil production to increase in earnest from May OPEC oil production rose a touch in March. We expect that the group’s production will hold steady throughout April, as existing quotas remain in place, but that it will increase thereafter as quotas are …
13th April 2021
Overview – Strong growth in industrial demand helped push up the prices of energy commodities used primarily in power generation last month, but oil prices slipped back. We continue to expect average energy prices to be higher this year than last, …
12th April 2021
While we have revised down our oil price forecast for Q2 and Q3 this year in response to the OPEC+ decision to ease production cuts, we still think a rebound in global demand will help push oil prices back above $70 per barrel. We expect weaker oil demand …
8th April 2021
Despite a slow start, product demand should pick up this quarter Commercial crude stocks continued to fall in the latest weekly data, but this was a reflection of lower supply and higher exports than a recovery in consumer demand . However, all the signs …
7th April 2021
The recent decision by OPEC+ to increase its oil production quotas and the prospect of higher Iranian output point to a smaller global oil market deficit this year than we had previously envisaged. Nevertheless, the persistent deficit means that we still …
Stronger demand to weigh on crude stocks The increase in refinery throughput and decline in net imports meant that US crude stocks fell last week for the first time in around two months. We expect that stocks will fall further in the coming weeks as …
31st March 2021
Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’) as part of its plan to tackle carbon leakage and …
26th March 2021
US commercial crude stocks to fall soon The pace of builds in US crude stocks continued to slow last week as refinery activity surged. However, we expect stocks to ease back in the coming weeks as refinery capacity utilisation steadily bounces back . The …
24th March 2021
Despite the ongoing rise in the number of rigs actively drilling for oil, we continue to expect a lacklustre recovery in US oil production over the next couple of years . An often-overlooked aspect of the rise in the number of rigs drilling for oil in the …
Rising refinery output to weigh on commercial crude stocks Even with the continued recovery in refinery activity, US crude stocks rose last week. However, we suspect that stocks will fall soon as refinery activity rises further and crude production holds …
17th March 2021
The deeper-than-expected production cuts by most OPEC+ member states and a revival in global demand means that the oil market is now likely to be in a bigger deficit than we had previously envisaged for much of this year. We now expect the price of Brent …
12th March 2021
Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut to keep OPEC production constrained Saudi Arabia’s 1m bpd voluntary production cut meant that OPEC oil production plummeted in February. We expect OPEC production to remain low in March and April as Saudi Arabia continues its …
11th March 2021
Refinery throughput to revive further in coming weeks US commercial crude stocks soared again last week as refinery throughput remained well below normal levels. Given that production has almost entirely recovered, stocks will probably rise further next …
10th March 2021
Slower demand growth and an abundance of supply will limit gains in oil prices over the long term, which we think will ultimately prevent oil from featuring in the next commodity supercycle . As we recently outlined in a Commodities Watch , commodity …
4th March 2021
Crude stocks to march higher as refinery activity remains in the doldrums US commercial crude stocks skyrocketed last week as refinery activity plunged and net imports surged. We expect stocks to a rise a bit further in the coming weeks as refinery …
3rd March 2021
Overview – Oil prices have managed to claw back their lockdown-induced losses from last year, and we think that they will rise in the coming months as demand continues to revive. Meanwhile, natural gas and coal prices generally fell last month, but remain …
President Biden’s stance regarding international climate policy and the Iranian nuclear deal is very different from Donald Trump’s, but we are sceptical that he will be able to enact any significant policy change. Accordingly, we think that his foreign …
25th February 2021
Subdued refinery activity to bolster stocks in the coming weeks Despite the plunge in crude oil production, US crude stocks rose last week as refinery throughput plummeted. We expect the former to recover more quickly, which will support stocks in the …
24th February 2021
India’s oil consumption looks set to grow in the years ahead But the rate of growth will depend on how aggressively ‘green’ policies are pursued And any additional demand for oil will have to be met almost entirely by imports In this Energy Watch , we …
23rd February 2021
Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines from Africa and the East Mediterranean Sea will probably …
22nd February 2021
Deep freeze could boost crude stocks next week US commercial crude stocks plunged last week owing primarily to a rebound in exports. Next week, inventories could rise as the deep freeze in the southern parts of the US has knocked out several million bpd …
18th February 2021
Recent market moves have led us to revise up our end-2021 oil price forecast. But our story remains the same: one of resurgent demand later this year at a time of constrained supply . Having underperformed other commodity prices for much of last year, the …
12th February 2021
OPEC production increase to be short lived The slight easing of quotas meant that OPEC oil production rose in January. However, output will fall back again this month as Saudi Arabia implements its 1m bpd of voluntary production cuts . The OPEC Monthly …
11th February 2021
Commercial crude stocks approaching pre-virus levels US commercial crude stocks fell last week, while implied product demand strengthened. We expect these trends to continue over the coming months, as COVID-19 containment measures are eased . The EIA’s …
10th February 2021
Our forecasts assume that virus-related travel restrictions will be relaxed in H2 2021 But further setbacks on the virus front could mean that restrictions are kept in place That said, there are reasons to believe oil prices would hold up even in such a …
4th February 2021
Commercial crude stocks to remain on a downward trend Commercial crude stocks continued their counter-seasonal decline last week, even as net imports rebounded and refinery throughput eased back slightly. We expect inventories to decline further over the …
3rd February 2021
An often-overlooked factor supporting oil prices last year was the surge in stockpiling by China and India. But given the rebound in prices since then, and how much inventories have now risen, we expect stock-related purchases of oil in both countries to …
2nd February 2021
Vaccine progress means stocks have further to fall US commercial crude stocks sank last week, as net imports plummeted. Assuming that progress on COVID-19 vaccines continues, we expect a pick-up in demand will weigh on stocks from Q2 onwards . The EIA’s …
27th January 2021
Higher prices and a backlog of uncompleted wells should ensure that US crude oil production edges up slowly over the next couple of years. But with many of the challenges facing the sector still lurking in the background, we remain doubtful that …
Overview – The revival in oil demand and prices should continue to gather pace in 2021 as the lifting of quarantine measures enables the release of ‘pent-up’ demand associated with leisure activity. Meanwhile, a recovery in industrial activity should …
25th January 2021
Build in stocks rounds off a gloomy week for oil Following five consecutive weeks of declines, commercial crude stocks in the US rose last week. Together with still-high rates of new COVID-19 infections, this points to a gloomy near-term outlook for oil …
22nd January 2021
OPEC production to increase in January, but fall later in the quarter OPEC’s oil production rose in December and is likely to pick up again this month in line with its higher quotas. However, the group’s total output will almost certainly fall in February …
14th January 2021
US product demand to remain lacklustre in the coming weeks Crude inventories continued their downward trend, helped by the ongoing increase in crude inputs to refineries. Implied product demand picked up, but product stocks also rose . The EIA’s weekly US …
13th January 2021
We expect the prices of most energy commodities to rise in 2021, as demand revives in line with the global economic recovery. But coal prices are likely to fall back, as demand growth in major consuming regions drops back after the winter weather-related …
11th January 2021
Overview – Energy commodity prices for the most part ended 2020 on a high, buoyed by strong seasonal demand, an increase in investor risk appetite and a weaker US dollar. And while energy commodities were the underperformer in 2020, they should be the …
7th January 2021
If implemented, Saudi Arabia’s shock pledge to cut oil production by 1m bpd in February and March should offset much of the current lockdown-related weakness in global oil demand. Consequently, the market should remain in a deficit, which is why we have …
Weakness in product demand could last for some weeks yet Crude stocks plummeted at the beginning of 2021, explained by an increase in refinery activity and persistently robust exports. However, rising product stocks point to subdued consumption . The …
6th January 2021
Implied product demand to remain steady, for now Crude stocks sank a little last week as exports rose. Meanwhile (and more encouragingly), implied gasoline and distillate demand were up in the face of rising COVID-19 restrictions, which suggests that …
23rd December 2020