Filtered by Subscriptions: Energy Use setting Energy
Overview – Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will incentivise producers to raise output and will …
1st November 2021
US commercial stocks rise, but will remain low for a while US commercial stocks rose last week on a release of strategic reserves and a jump in net imports. Exports could fall further in the coming weeks given the need to rebuild stocks at the WTI Cushing …
27th October 2021
We expect US crude oil production to rise by the end of next year, but remain well below levels in early 2020. What’s more, with non-US oil production set to grow at a faster pace than US oil production, the Brent-WTI price premium is likely to remain …
26th October 2021
Stocks fall and are likely to remain low in the short term Strong exports contributed to the first drawdown in stocks in four weeks last week, supporting already-high crude prices. What’s more, stocks at the hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, also fell and they …
20th October 2021
Coal prices are likely to remain high over the next six months as high demand weighs on already-low stocks. Prices should drop back next year, though, as demand growth moderates and supply improves . The price of coal has roughly tripled since the start …
19th October 2021
Stocks rise again, but will remain depressed for months to come A large fall in the refinery utilisation rate drove another increase in stocks last week, although utilisation rates are normal for the time of the year. And with output set to remain …
14th October 2021
Even if OPEC raises quotas, there remain doubts about higher supply OPEC moved closer to its collective target output last month. However, it is now clear that if the group were to answer calls to raise output, it would involve abandoning the current …
13th October 2021
The price of European natural gas (TTF) surged by around 35% this morning, before crashing back down on Putin’s reassuring comments about Russian supply. The latest price moves appear speculative, and we retain our view that it is just a matter of time …
6th October 2021
Overview – Natural gas and coal prices soared in September. In turn, this has raised the output costs of industrial metals, most notably those which are especially energy intensive such as aluminium and steel. At the same time, reports suggest that some …
5th October 2021
We expect a gradual normalisation in demand growth and a rebound in supply will start to weigh on oil prices from the fourth quarter. So far this year, growth in demand has outpaced supply, helping prices to hit multi-year highs, but we expect this …
4th October 2021
Natural gas prices have soared and are likely to remain historically high for some time But there has not been an underlying structural shift up in demand And high prices will incentivise supply At the time of writing, global natural gas prices are …
1st October 2021
Crude stocks set to remain depressed, despite surprise increase A jump in crude oil production led to the first stock build in eight weeks. However, with output still constrained and demand set to remain strong, stocks are likely to remain low for some …
29th September 2021
A mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, a substitution of gas for other fuels in electricity generation, and/or a rise in supply via Nord Stream 2 could all send European gas prices lower in the months ahead. But even if prices start to fall back soon, …
24th September 2021
Declines in crude stocks seem unlikely to reverse any time soon US crude stocks have continued to fall as refinery activity has so far recovered faster than crude output following Hurricane Ida. And with demand already broadly back to pre-pandemic levels, …
22nd September 2021
Hurricane Ida continues to distort the data There were hefty falls in both crude and petroleum product stocks, reflecting closed production capacity due to damage caused by Hurricane Ida. Implied gasoline demand also dropped back but it is impossible to …
15th September 2021
Mounting pressure on OPEC may prompt faster unwinding of output cuts The rise in OPEC’s oil output fell well short of its target in August. And given a higher oil demand forecast for 2022, alongside growing external pressure, we think that the risks are …
13th September 2021
Coal and natural gas prices have soared around the world on the back of unseasonable weather and disruptions to supply. And even if the weather normalises and supply rebounds soon, we expect prices to remain high at least into the start of 2022 as stocks …
10th September 2021
Hurricane Ida to blur the stocks picture for a few weeks yet There was a small draw in crude stocks last week, despite a dramatic drop in refinery utilisation as many refineries closed ahead of the Hurricane Ida. Notwithstanding, US gasoline demand …
9th September 2021
Overview – After sharp falls in the middle of the month, most commodity prices ended August broadly flat. However, we doubt it will be long before the downward pressure on prices intensifies again. After all, economic growth in most major economies now …
3rd September 2021
Fallout from Hurricane Ida to lead to higher crude stocks Last week’s sharp fall in US commercial crude stocks is at odds with many of the underlying indicators. In any case, stocks seem likely to rise in the weeks ahead as reports suggest that refinery …
1st September 2021
We think that the adoption rate of renewable electricity will accelerate in the decades ahead, which should contribute to a near-continuous decline in demand for coal. Demand for natural gas should still eke out some growth over the next decade or so …
26th August 2021
US demand is solid, if not exciting Crude oil stocks fell again last week and implied gasoline demand rose, in broadly positive news for oil prices. For now, US consumers appear to be shrugging off the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19. However, it …
25th August 2021
We think that a few countries will join OPEC, which would boost its market power However, we still expect oil prices to fall over the next few decades … … as countries rush to produce as much as possible against the bleak demand backdrop In this Energy …
19th August 2021
US gasoline demand looks to have peaked While crude stocks fell again last week, gasoline inventories rose a little and there was a further pullback in implied gasoline demand . Given the ongoing rise in virus infections and some re-imposition of …
18th August 2021
OPEC may need to reconsider supply plans OPEC’s oil production soared in July as Saudi Arabia unwound the bulk of its voluntary output cut . Although OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged, we think that the near-term demand outlook has deteriorated, …
12th August 2021
Recovery in US oil demand topping out Last week’s fall in crude oil and gasoline stocks suggests that growth in demand in the US is continuing to outpace growth in supply. However, following a strong recovery from its pandemic-induced lows, we suspect …
11th August 2021
While we expect both drilling activity and oil production in the US to pick up slightly over the next year or so, we doubt it will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This should keep the Brent-WTI spread narrow but is unlikely to prevent oil …
Gasoline demand to rise a bit further in the coming weeks US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased last week as net imports rose, but we suspect that inventories will fall back soon as demand for oil products, such as gasoline, continues to rise …
4th August 2021
Overview – After a blistering rally for much of 2021, we expect the prices of energy commodities to be easing back as we move into 2022. Oil supply, particularly from OPEC+, is set to rebound strongly over the next year, which will be a factor weighing on …
3rd August 2021
Build in crude stocks looks to have been a blip US commercial crude stocks resumed their downward trend last week. With domestic output still well below pre-virus levels and product demand likely to rise, we think crude stocks will fall further from here …
28th July 2021
Crude stocks build won’t last for long US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly rose this week as net imports surged. Nevertheless, providing that the Delta virus variant doesn’t lead to the re-imposition of virus-related restrictions, we expect that …
21st July 2021
We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to earth by early 2022. However, a strong economic rebound …
20th July 2021
The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect Brent to fall into the $60-70 range in 2022 as more global …
19th July 2021
OPEC supply to continue rising, regardless of new quotas OPEC’s oil production increased sharply in June, primarily because Saudi Arabia continued to unwind its voluntary production cut. Output should rise further in July on the back of larger quotas, and …
15th July 2021
Rising US production may pose a further headache for OPEC+ US commercial crude stocks fell for the eighth week in a row, and domestic production is now showing signs of life. This may add to the pressure on OPEC+ to relax output cuts more quickly and …
14th July 2021
US gasoline demand soars ahead of the holiday US crude stocks continued to plummet, and gasoline demand shot up ahead of the Independence Day holiday. We expect US product demand to remain strong in the coming weeks as travel activity picks up in tandem …
8th July 2021
Overview – Oil prices were rising in June even before the July OPEC+ meeting ended in disarray, without agreement. Strong growth in demand as economies lift virus-related restrictions is expected to continue to support the prices of all energy commodities …
6th July 2021
The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update , we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC+ output in the coming months and what they would mean …
More good news on US crude demand US crude stocks fell for the sixth consecutive week amid the ongoing rebound in product demand as the virus-related restrictions continue to be lifted. That said, if OPEC+ decide to gradually raise output from August (as …
30th June 2021
Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large part because of higher production . The ongoing …
28th June 2021
Stock drawdowns to continue, but unlikely to accelerate US commercial crude stocks declined again last week. However, with both implied demand for most products and refinery activity close to pre-pandemic levels, we think the pace of draws will stabilise …
23rd June 2021
Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world . We expect strong oil demand growth to continue for the rest of the year, but this won’t stop rising …
17th June 2021
Rebound in production won’t last long Despite an uptick in domestic production, US commercial crude stocks plummeted last week as refinery throughput rose and net imports slumped. However, we suspect that the pace of draws will slow in the coming weeks as …
16th June 2021
Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to fall from Q4 this year and throughout 2022 . Global oil …
OPEC oil production to rise beyond July OPEC’s oil production increased sharply in May on the back of higher quotas and Saudi Arabia starting to phase out its voluntary production cut. Production will rise again in both June and July in line with higher …
10th June 2021
Diminishing scope for further falls in crude stocks US commercial crude stocks fell again last week, in part due to higher refinery activity. However, rising product stocks and lower product demand suggest the downward trend in crude stocks may slow soon …
9th June 2021
After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which should run its course over the coming months. That said, …
Ongoing decline in stocks to help lift oil prices a little higher US commercial crude stocks declined for the fifth week in a row, owing to the robust economic recovery and a further increase in inputs to refineries. With demand set to rise further, and …
3rd June 2021
Overview – Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this year than last but expect the prices of …
2nd June 2021
Stars aligning for higher oil prices Last week’s decline in US crude stocks adds to evidence that the oil market is getting tighter. This supports our view that oil prices have further to rise in the months ahead, before higher OPEC+ supply brings the …
26th May 2021