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A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again . But while he could deal another blow to the …
25th June 2024
The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only part of the picture. In its annual oil report, …
14th June 2024
The US economy has persistently outperformed its peers for over a century, and as our Spotlight series argues, will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. More recently, the US has also benefited from securing low-cost energy supplies. But these …
13th June 2024
The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a transition fuel means that it will peak a few years later around …
12th June 2024
The decision by OPEC+ last Sunday to increase output from October caught investors by surprise and sent oil prices sinking to below $78 per barrel early in the week. Ahead of the meeting, investors had expected that the cuts would be rolled over for the …
7th June 2024
The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts into Q3 will keep global oil supply constrained and should support oil prices over the rest of this year. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have continued to rally on the back of risks to Europe’s …
5th June 2024
At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed th rough and that output gradually increases from October, pushing the crude market …
4th June 2024
OPEC+ keep screws tight for another quarter The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts for another quarter will, in our view, push the crude oil market into a sizeable deficit in Q3. Oil supply will be more constrained than we had …
3rd June 2024
The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production cuts into the second half of this year. But a host of …
31st May 2024
The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power within Iran means that there is unlikely to be a major …
20th May 2024
Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry consolidation, productivity improvements running out of steam, and …
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore our energy market forecasts through to 2050, which are characterised by continued growth in energy consumption and an accelerating shift to renewables . The dashboard was last updated on 23rd April 2024. …
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
14th May 2024
We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. ( View a recording here .) This Update answers several of the questions that we received. Q1: What Middle East escalation scenario do you consider …
10th May 2024
The fall in oil prices since Iran and Israel’s back-and-forth attacks suggests that some of the risk premium in prices has now unwound. Prices continue to be supported by OPEC+ production cuts but we suspect that members will gradually unwind these cuts …
7th May 2024
Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough factor to alter the global oil market balance. What’s …
30th April 2024
A resurgent nuclear power sector in Japan and a continuously growing one in South Korea coupled with an expansion in renewable power capacities will ensure both countries’ LNG demand will fall throughout the rest of this decade. All this supports our view …
23rd April 2024
Recent increases in natural gas prices in Europe have predictably been mirrored in the EU carbon price, which has risen from a 31-month low of €52 per tonne in February to €71 at the time of writing. The rise in European natural gas prices has been driven …
18th April 2024
The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower rates should be positive for commodity prices but, …
16th April 2024
Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one expires on Thursday. A rise in key oil exports would help the …
There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving Iran disrupts oil production in the Gulf states is much …
15th April 2024
A resurgence in hydropower in China this year combined with the continued rapid expansion of its wind, solar and nuclear power capabilities may pave the way for 2024 to mark the start of a steady decline in China’s coal demand. But a contraction in demand …
10th April 2024
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent months and this should continue to support …
4th April 2024
We expect global crude production to rise by around 2.5% in 2025 as the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts stretches all through next year. But non-OPEC+ oil producing nations will also play their part in raising supply even if we think US oil …
14th March 2024
The winner of Russia’s election may be a foregone conclusion but the outlook for its oil and gas sector isn’t. A tightening of sanctions is an ever-present risk and the outcome of the war is uncertain. Our central case is that sanctions don’t prevent …
13th March 2024
Oil prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. Prices were supported by the OPEC+ decision to roll over production cuts until Q3. We expect that the group will gradually unwind …
11th March 2024
China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support commodities demand this year, although for metals used in …
6th March 2024
Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter half of the year and other producers will plug the gap …
4th March 2024
Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should continue to be a net exporter as hydropower flows south …
28th February 2024
Carbon price not out of the woods yet …
22nd February 2024
This report is the third of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU carbon price in the short term. While supply …
This report is the second of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It sets out our approach for modelling the fundamental price of an EU carbon permit [1] over the rest of this decade. In …
This report is the first of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It starts by explaining what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in …
The precipitous drop in US natural gas prices won’t persist for the rest of the year. Prices should rise by Q4 as US production growth slows and LNG exports rise. US natural gas prices have collapsed recently, falling around 18% week-on-week and 23% …
14th February 2024
Energy prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. If energy production continues to be largely unaffected, we expect most prices to fall further by the end of the year. Greater …
5th February 2024
We have revised down our forecast for US natural gas prices this year, as the outlook for domestic supply has improved. In the near term, a perfect storm of impediments to exports has emerged and sent spot prices tumbling. Henry Hub was down by over 20% …
2nd February 2024
Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to raise production capacity to 13mn bpd, we think looming …
30th January 2024
JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption paint a nuanced picture of global energy demand. While oil demand growth slowed towards the end of last year, consumption of natural gas was recovering from the worst of the energy price crisis. We …
29th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, gas prices are still very high in the EU and …
19th January 2024
Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the tide is turning once again. This partly reflects declines in key input costs such as lithium, as well as huge growth in global manufacturing capacity, particularly …
18th January 2024
The downward trend in the EU carbon price since early 2023 has been driven by lower demand for pollution permits on the back of industrial weakness and growth in cleaner energy sources. With energy-intensive activity in the bloc set to stay weak, and …
17th January 2024
Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also reflects concerns about weak demand, strong supply growth …
16th January 2024
The surge in US exports of energy over the coming five years will ensure that the US remains a major supplier of fossil fuels to the rest of the world. A large proportion of these exports will be LNG, as new export terminals come online. But exports of …
10th January 2024
Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not been directly affected, but the Israel-Hamas conflict together with the tensions in the Red Sea have increased volatility in energy markets. We expect oil …
4th January 2024
Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote refinery and President Tinubu’s broader plans to …
The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy consumption will increase markedly, fossil fuel usage is …
21st December 2023
The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on how long the disruptions last, but we think that they …
19th December 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the ailing property sector, which should be less …
15th December 2023
