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After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19, the new Brexit customs procedures and the surge in …
3rd February 2021
10-year gilt yields haven’t been significantly dragged higher by 10-year US Treasury yields because, unlike their US counterparts, break-even inflation rates in the UK have not been boosted by expectations of a big fiscal stimulus, a rise in inflation and …
27th January 2021
The recent swings in sterling triggered by shifts in sentiment towards the chances of a Brexit deal have left little room for the pound to appreciate if there’s a deal, but plenty of room for it to depreciate if there’s a no deal. As the markets appear to …
16th December 2020
COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier system will limit the rebound in activity in the coming …
3rd December 2020
The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that the rebound in December will be muted. (See Chart 1.) …
9th November 2020
The growing risk of a second national UK lockdown has spooked equity markets over the last week. We already expect the recovery to stall in Q4 and additional COVID-19 restrictions could easily throw it into reverse, which would hammer UK corporate …
22nd October 2020
The concerns about the consequences for the economy from a second wave of COVID-19 and a no deal Brexit, which have reduced the FTSE 100 almost back to April’s level and weakened the pound from $1.35 to $1.27, seem justified. After all, the new guidance …
23rd September 2020
Our Capital Economics BICS Indicator suggests that the rapid economic recovery has continued with some chunky gains in GDP in both July and August. (See Chart 1.) If so, then the economy may now be “only” 8% below its pre-crisis level and around 70% of …
8th September 2020
The large share of consumer-facing services in the UK economy, combined with a deeper and longer lockdown than most other developed economies meant that the UK was always going to be hit harder than some other countries. But the larger fall in GDP in the …
5th August 2020
Despite the Bank of England having slowed the pace of its gilt purchases to below that of gilt issuance (see Chart 1), our forecasts that it will expand the size of its quantitative easing programme by a further £250bn and won’t raise Bank Rate above …
22nd July 2020
Market conditions have generally improved in recent months, with government bond yields remaining low, corporate bond spreads almost back to their pre-coronavirus levels and the FTSE 100 recovering almost half of its 33% slump in February and March. (See …
25th June 2020
While the most restrictive period of the lockdown is behind us, the measures enforcing business closures and social distancing are only being eased very gradually. According to the ONS “Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey”, the number of businesses …
4th June 2020
While the latest data suggest that our estimate that GDP has fallen by an eyewatering 25% from peak to trough is in the right ballpark, it looks as though the most restrictive parts of the coronavirus lockdown will be eased in May rather than in June as …
5th May 2020
Strains in the financial markets have generally eased due to policymakers’ decisive action and equity markets have rebounded on hopes that the spread of the coronavirus is slowing. (See Chart 1.) Of course, asset prices have not recouped all their losses …
21st April 2020
It’s become clearer that the economic costs of the lockdown to contain the coronavirus will be huge. The plunge in the activity PMIs in March provide some tentative support to our view that GDP could fall by something like 15% q/q in Q2. The 1,500,000 new …
2nd April 2020
The coronavirus has unleashed a huge sell-off in financial markets that has seen the FTSE 250 fall by 40% and investors even pull their money from traditionally safe assets like government bonds. While there are many casualties, the pound has been hit …
18th March 2020
The economy started the year on a strong note, but it is only a matter of time before it succumbs to the effects of the coronavirus. To reflect the weaker global backdrop and the likelihood that measures implemented to limit the spread of the virus will …
5th March 2020
Signs that the economy has turned a corner support our view that interest rates won’t be cut from 0.75% this year. After all, the activity PMIs are no longer in the territory where rates have been cut by 25 basis points before. (See Chart 1.) And they …
6th February 2020
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on whether to cut rates in January rests on a knife edge and could go either way. The MPC must weigh up the weakness of the economy and low inflation in Q4 with the prospect that the election result, a Brexit …
16th January 2020
The post-election jump in UK equities could just be the start of a sustained rally. Concerns Brexit and higher taxes under a Labour government mean that UK equity indices have underperformed over the last few years. (See Chart 1.) However, the removal of …
17th December 2019
The anticipation of next week’s election delivering a substantial majority for the Conservative Party and leading to a Brexit deal has already triggered a turning point in the financial markets, with the pound rising to a seven-month high of $1.31 and a …
5th December 2019
Although we estimate that the 0.2% q/q contraction in GDP in Q2 was followed by a 0.4% q/q rise in Q3, it is clear that the economy is spluttering rather than firing on all cylinders. We think that GDP will rise by just 0.2% q/q in Q4. Seeing as the …
6th November 2019
If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end of the year. While a lot of good news is already baked …
22nd October 2019
Equity markets have recovered much of their losses in recent weeks and, after hitting multi-year lows at the start of September, sterling and bond yields have also rebounded. (See Chart 1.) This is partly due to signs of a temporary détente in the …
23rd September 2019
While the 0.2% q/q decline in GDP in Q2 and the further falls in the IHS Markit/CIPS activity PMIs in August mean that there is a real risk of a recession, there are reasons to believe that GDP will rise in Q3 and a recession before Brexit will be …
5th September 2019
While it will probably be confirmed later this week that the economy didn’t grow at all in Q2, July’s PMIs provide some support to our view that GDP will rise in Q3. Admittedly, both the manufacturing and construction PMIs remained close to their …
6th August 2019
With the pound having recently weakened to a two-year low of $1.24 and the markets seemingly no longer pricing in the possibility of official interest rate hikes if there’s a Brexit deal or delay, there may be more upside to the pound than is widely …
24th July 2019
Investors have reassessed the outlook for UK monetary policy over the last month and have gone from expecting rate hikes at the start of May to expecting cuts now. This is partly because of a weakening global outlook and mounting expectations of rate cuts …
26th June 2019