Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
Rising chance of further Norges Bank rate cuts While core inflation in Norway remained slightly above policymakers’ target in March, the precipitous plunge in economic activity raises the chance that Norway will join the sub-zero interest rate club. The …
8th April 2020
Inflation set to stay below zero throughout 2020 Having fallen further into negative territory in March, Swiss inflation is likely to remain below zero for the rest of 2020. This will strengthen policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much …
2nd April 2020
The start of a grim run of economic data The eye-watering declines in the manufacturing PMIs for March from Switzerland and the Nordics simply confirm that economic activity has dropped off a cliff following the introduction of containment measures. …
1st April 2020
Chunky month-on-month fall, but much worse is to come While the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer registered its biggest monthly decline in five years in March, the fact that many of the responses to the survey component of the indicator predated the …
30th March 2020
Swedish economy set to contract in Q1, and much worse is to come The broad-based drop in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator in March is consistent with the economy contracting by about 0.5-1.0% in Q1. Unfortunately, much worse is set to come in Q2. The …
26th March 2020
Coronavirus to exacerbate downward pressure on Swiss inflation The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the …
4th March 2020
Broad-based improvement in February, but the story has moved on The increases in the manufacturing PMIs in February in Switzerland and the Nordics suggest that conditions in the industrial sector were improving before the surge in coronavirus cases in …
2nd March 2020
Swedish economy will struggle to regain momentum The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation lend …
28th February 2020
Industry ends 2019 on the back foot While pharmaceuticals output supported Swiss manufacturing again in Q4, conditions in the rest of the sector weakened at the end of last year. With the German industrial recession likely to drag on, and the coronavirus …
20th February 2020
Weaker-than expected inflation to test the Riksbank’s resolve The sharper-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in January may test the Riksbank’s resolve to keep policy unchanged. With subdued GDP growth likely to weigh on underlying inflation this …
19th February 2020
Pick-up in Norwegian inflation points to tightening bias at the Norges Bank The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the …
10th February 2020
Mixed messages from the PMIs The mixed set of manufacturing PMIs from January adds to signs that conditions in the Swedish industrial sector have turned the corner but indicate that activity in Switzerland remains stuck in a rut. The jump in the headline …
3rd February 2020
A positive start to the year The surge in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in January may yet prove to be a bit of a rogue reading. Nonetheless, it adds to signs from elsewhere in Europe that conditions for industrial firms have stabilised at the start of …
30th January 2020
Inflation set to moderate in 2020 The fact that Swedish inflation was unchanged in December came as a surprise to nobody. But given our view that underlying price pressures will continue to moderate, we are sticking to our non-consensus forecast that …
15th January 2020
Drop in core Norwegian inflation not the start of a trend We doubt that December’s decline in underlying inflation in Norway is the start of a trend. Given our view that the economy will regain momentum before long, the balance of risks is skewed towards …
10th January 2020
Small pick-up in Swiss inflation not a game changer Having seen inflation fall into negative territory in the previous two months, the increase in Swiss CPI back into positive territory in December will be welcomed by policymakers. Nonetheless, with core …
7th January 2020
Pick-up in inflation makes Riksbank hike next week a done deal The pick-up in Swedish inflation in November means that a rate hike by the Riksbank next week is all but guaranteed. But with surveys continuing to show that the economy is struggling, and …
11th December 2019
Risks skewed towards tighter policy in Norway While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% for the foreseeable future, the persistence of core price pressures means that the balance of risks is skewed towards …
10th December 2019
Stuck in a rut The falls in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in November dash any hopes that the manufacturing sectors have gathered momentum in Q4. With the manufacturing recession in Germany set to rumble on, industrial output in Switzerland and …
2nd December 2019
Stronger growth in Sweden not likely to last The pick-up in Swedish GDP growth in Q3 means that a rate hike by the Riksbank at its next meeting is now pretty much a done deal. But if, as we expect, the economy slows next year, we think the Bank will have …
29th November 2019
Positive surprise but economy is not out of the woods, yet The stronger-than-expected rise in quarterly Swiss GDP growth in Q3 was a bit of a relief and poses upside risks to our near-term forecast. But the outcome was skewed by weather-related effects …
28th November 2019
Base effects mask underlying weakness The jump in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q3 was skewed by base effects and masks weakness in those sectors most exposed to Germany. As Germany’s industrial recession looks set to drag on, we expect …
21st November 2019
Riksbank to tighten policy despite low inflation Despite October’s increase in CPIF inflation, underlying inflation in Sweden remains below target and serves as proof that the economy is not ready for the Riksbank’s planned rate hike in December. While …
13th November 2019
Norwegian economy to stay in a class of its own This morning’s release of Q3 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy is faring much better than its Nordic peers. The economy looks set to lose some pace in the coming months but we do not think it …
12th November 2019
Norwegian core inflation holds steady While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% into 2022, the persistence of above-target core inflation in Norway will ensure that it maintains a comparatively hawkish bias …
11th November 2019
Return of deflation to ring alarm bells at the SNB The confirmation this morning that Swiss inflation fell back into negative territory in October for the first time since November 2016 will reignite deflationary fears at the SNB and strengthen its …
1st November 2019
Rebound in sentiment still consistent with weak GDP growth October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer was not enough to offset the previous month’s drop and the series still suggests that activity will remain subdued into 2020. Given the …
30th October 2019
Underlying inflation to stay subdued in Sweden The persistent weakness of underlying inflation in Sweden serves as further proof, if needed, that the Riksbank will have to shift to a more dovish stance over the next six months or so. As a result, the …
10th October 2019
Another step towards deflation The further decline in Swiss inflation, to just 0.1% in September, will stoke deflationary fears at the SNB and will only strengthen its resolve to resist upward pressure on the franc. The headline Swiss inflation rate fell …
2nd October 2019
From bad to worse The release of a grim set of manufacturing PMIs for September this morning lends further support to our views that policymakers in Sweden and Switzerland will end up cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory, and that the …
1st October 2019
Weak inflation further undermines the Riksbank’s hawkish stance The weakness of Swedish inflation in August pours even more cold water over the Riksbank’s forecasts for an interest rate hike over the next six months. We are sticking to our view that …
10th September 2019
Activity set to slow further in the second half of the year The fact that the Swiss economy grew slightly faster than we had expected in Q2 is of limited solace given the sizeable downward revisions to the back data. The risks to our GDP forecast this …
5th September 2019
Persistent subdued inflation keeps the pressure on the SNB This morning’s release of Swiss inflation data for August confirmed that price pressures there remain almost entirely absent. It’s still a question of when, rather than whether, the SNB eases …
3rd September 2019
August PMIs are no game changers The manufacturing PMIs from August indicate that the Swiss industrial sector is still feeling the pinch from the deep downturn in its German counterpart and the stronger franc, and add to the evidence that the Swedish …
2nd September 2019
GDP growth in Finland and Denmark set to slow in H2 Although today’s release of GDP data for Finland and Denmark shows that both economies grew solidly in Q2, we suspect that quarterly growth will slow in both in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the Swiss …
30th August 2019
Q2 GDP growth may be as good as it gets for Norway This morning’s release of Q2 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy remains a bright spot in the Nordics. But given that oil prices are now in line with our end-year forecast of $60pb, we think …
29th August 2019
Weaker inflation to support dovish shift by the Riksbank The fall in Swedish inflation in July provides further confirmation, if it were needed, that the Riksbank will have to revise down its forecasts for the repo rate at its next meeting, on 5 th …
14th August 2019
Above-target core inflation to keep Norges Bank in tightening mode, for now The fact that core inflation in Norway remained above target for the ninth month in a row in July will keep the Norges Bank in tightening mode for now. But with prices pressures …
9th August 2019
Fall in Swiss inflation adds to pressure on the SNB The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation in July, and signs of a deepening downturn in the industrial sector, will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist the rising franc. There is a growing …
2nd August 2019
Losing pace into Q3 The sharp fall in Norway’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to signs that the economy is losing momentum and lends support to our view that the Norges Bank will hike rates by less than investors expect this year. Meanwhile, the weak PMI …
1st August 2019
Core inflation likely to fall back into 2020 While core inflation in Sweden edged up once again in June, we expect weak domestic demand to weigh on underlying price pressures over the second half of the year and into 2020. Having risen to a seven-month …
11th July 2019
Above-target core inflation supports Norges Bank’s hawkish bias The larger-than-expected fall in the headline Norwegian inflation rate in June is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s hawkish bias. With core price pressures still running above target, it …
10th July 2019
Stable, but set to fall to zero Swiss inflation held steady at a very low rate in June and we expect it to fall to zero during the second half of the year on the back of the stronger franc. With deflationary fears set to come back on the agenda, we think …
4th July 2019
Another weak set of PMIs point to loss of momentum into H2 The Swiss manufacturing PMI for June shows that conditions in the industrial sector have worsened going into H2, while the indicator from Sweden suggests that the economy contracted in the second …
1st July 2019
Franc to rise further despite subdued Swiss activity The modest decline in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in June lends further support to our view that the Swiss economy will lose momentum over the course of this year. And with the franc likely to rise …
28th June 2019