Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
Industrial sector resilient at the start of the year The strong set of January manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics indicates that industry continued to cushion the blow from virus restriction-driven declines in services activity at the …
1st February 2021
Bucking the weak trend at the start of 2021 The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in January was a welcome surprise and shows that the manufacturing sector remains in rude health. That said, retail is struggling, and with deeper …
28th January 2021
Norway to remain ahead of the pack The smaller-than-expected fall in mainland Norwegian GDP in November shows that activity was reasonably resilient to tighter virus-related restrictions and was well placed coming into 2021. While Sweden also probably …
12th January 2021
Norwegian inflation to fall sharply this year While core Norwegian inflation edged further above target in December, it is set to fall back swiftly this year and so the Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates. The rise in Norwegian headline …
11th January 2021
Deflation on the way out, but SNB will keep policy unchanged Swiss inflation is likely to climb out of deflationary territory over the coming months. However, it is still set to remain very weak over the coming years, and does not change the picture for …
5th January 2021
Industrial sector carried momentum into 2021 The strong set of December manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics indicates that industry started 2021 on the front foot, supported by robust activity in Asia. This bodes well for Q1 and will have …
4th January 2021
Core inflation in Norway to drift lower next year The sharp fall in Norwegian inflation in November was skewed by energy effects, but the decline in the core rate underlines that policymakers will be in no rush to raise rates. Meanwhile, the persistent …
10th December 2020
Norway to get away lightly in Q4 The stronger-than-expected increase in mainland Norwegian GDP means that the economy will avoid contracting in Q4 and confirms that it will experience a comparatively modest drop in output in 2020. However, the increasing …
9th December 2020
Deflation on its way out, but SNB will keep policy unchanged The current period of deflation in Switzerland will start to ease in early 2021, and the headline rate is likely to edge back into positive territory by March. However, this won’t be a …
2nd December 2020
Industrial boom to help offset services slump The strong set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics in November suggests that the industrial rebound gathered momentum in Q4, in keeping with the picture in German industry. This will help to …
1st December 2020
Is Switzerland “doing a Sweden” in Q4? The decline in the KOF Economic Barometer in November adds to signs that the rebound in Swiss GDP shifted into reverse in Q4. However, given the government’s decision to resist a nationwide lockdown, activity in the …
30th November 2020
Norwegian economy to start 2021 on the back foot This morning’s release of Q3 GDP data from Norway confirmed that the mainland economy bounced back strongly over the summer. However, new restrictions both locally and in key trade partners mean that the …
17th November 2020
Weak core inflation set to persist The October inflation data from Sweden do not move the needle for policymakers. However, the persistent weakness of underlying price pressures is likely to remain a headache for the Riksbank over the coming years. CPIF …
12th November 2020
Norwegian inflation set to fall back next year While Norwegian inflation edged further above target in October, it is set to fall back sharply in H1 2021 and so the Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates. The small increase in the …
10th November 2020
Rebound set to shift into reverse in Q4 The 4.3% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q3 was below both our and the consensus forecast, but leaves the economy on track for a comparatively shallow drop in output this year – broadly in line with the record …
5th November 2020
Absence of price pressures limits the SNB’s options The absence of price pressures in Switzerland will remain a headache for the SNB over the coming years. And with the ECB set to loosen policy again next month, Swiss policymakers’ focus will remain …
3rd November 2020
Ongoing industrial rebounds to provide limited cheer The positive set of manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that the industrial rebound gathered momentum at the beginning of Q4. However, this is of little comfort given the imposition of new lockdowns …
2nd November 2020
Outperforming at the start of Q4 The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in October came as a bit of a surprise given the recent surge in COVID-19 cases there and suggests that the economic recovery – which monthly GDP data suggest had …
28th October 2020
Frustratingly low prices pressures point to further support down the line The larger-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in September will only strengthen the hand of the dovish contingent of the Riksbank’s Executive Board. We think it is only a …
13th October 2020
Rising order backlogs to sustain industrial rebounds While Swiss inflation has risen since reaching a trough in June, it is likely to stay very weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the positive set of September manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and Sweden …
1st October 2020
Switzerland comparatively well placed The increase in the KOF Economic Barometer in September, to a fresh decade high, suggests that the Swiss economy gathered momentum going into Q4. While the second waves of virus cases in parts of Europe are a downside …
30th September 2020
Norwegian inflation pressures set to ease before long Signs of rising domestic price pressures in Norway raise the chance of a hawkish shift by the Norges Bank at the next meeting. However, with imported price inflation set to peak soon, and services …
10th September 2020
Recovery shifts down a gear Data released this morning show that the rebound in economic activity in Norway lost a bit of steam in July, which is in keeping with signs elsewhere in Europe. Nonetheless, given that the plunge in output in Norway was much …
8th September 2020
Ongoing period of deflation limits the SNB’s options The current bout of deflation in Switzerland is likely to persist well into next year, and will continue to be a headache for the SNB, particularly given the recent rise in the franc against the US …
3rd September 2020
Signs of rising manufacturing backlogs bode well for the near term The positive set of August manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics suggests that the recovery in industrial activity continued over the summer. While the fortunes of industry …
1st September 2020
Recovery losing pace The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in August was smaller than in the previous two months and suggests that although the recovery there continued in Q3, it may already be slowing. Meanwhile, the sharp rise in retail …
27th August 2020
Swiss economy on track for a comparatively modest drop in GDP this year Data released this morning show that the Swiss economy weathered the crisis comparatively well in the first half of the year. While its fortunes are closely tied to those in the …
Norway outperformed light-touch Sweden in H1, despite locking down While Sweden’s light-touch response to Covid has hogged the headlines, data released this morning show that the Norwegian economy outperformed its Nordic cousin in the first half of the …
25th August 2020
Inflation to remain anchored at low levels Swedish headline inflation would have fallen further in July had it not been for temporary effects related to car rental prices. And while core inflation edged up from June, against a backdrop of falling resource …
12th August 2020
Krone-driven boost to inflation to fade in early-2021 The lagged impact of exchange rate movements will ensure that inflation remains above the Norges Bank’s target throughout the second half of this year. However, this effect will fade in early-2021 and …
10th August 2020
Swedish economy not immune, but still well placed The sharp contraction in the Swedish economy in Q2 confirms that it has not been immune to Covid, despite the government’s well-documented light-touch lockdown. Nonetheless, the economic crunch over the …
5th August 2020
Swiss inflation likely to edge higher from here Inflation in Switzerland now appears to have troughed, but it is set to remain frustratingly weak over the coming years and a headache for the SNB. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMIs from July suggest that …
3rd August 2020
Barometer suggests recovery continued at start of Q3 While the flare-up in cases in Europe is a key downside risk, the sharp increase in the KOF Economic Barometer in July suggests that the Swiss economy continued to bounce back at the start of Q3. The …
30th July 2020
Recovery continues apace The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in July suggests the recovery there continued to gather pace at the start of Q3. That said, the rise in consumption appears to be slowing, and the external sector would suffer …
29th July 2020
Inflation set to stay stubbornly low The pick-up in Swedish inflation in June was a bit larger than expected but it was driven mainly by energy effects and is not a game changer. And while core inflation also edged up from May, against a backdrop of …
14th July 2020
Krone-driven boost to inflation to peak in H2 Previous falls in the krone will ensure that inflation stays above the Norges Bank’s target throughout H2. Nonetheless, this effect will fade in early-2021 and policymakers will be in no rush to raise interest …
10th July 2020
Switzerland set for a prolonged period of deflation The lack of price pressures in Switzerland is nothing new, but will ensure that the SNB remains poised to combat bouts of upward pressure on the franc for the foreseeable future. The headline inflation …
2nd July 2020
Swiss manufacturing struggling to shake off crisis The manufacturing PMIs from June add to the evidence that activity in Sweden and Norway has recovered comparatively quickly, but suggest that Swiss manufacturing is taking longer to find its feet. The …
1st July 2020
Barometer underwhelms but retail sales bounce back The underwhelming increase in the KOF Economic Barometer in June is at odds with the chunky rise in the euro-zone PMIs. Nonetheless, the surge in Swiss retail sales in May shows that the economy has …
30th June 2020
Pick-up in Swedish inflation not a game changer The rise in Swedish inflation in May ties in with signs that the economy has got off comparatively lightly by virtue of its light-touch lockdown. That said, the May figure was skewed in part by temporary …
11th June 2020
Currency-driven inflation boost to fade in H2 Recent falls in the krone contributed to the pick-up in core inflation in Norway in May, but this effect is likely to fade in H2. Accordingly, the Norges Bank will be in no rush to tighten monetary policy. The …
10th June 2020
Swiss deflation here to stay; Sweden set to outperform The further decline in Swiss inflation in May came as no surprise, but April’s private sector production data from Sweden add to signs that the economy has reaped some benefit from its light-touch …
4th June 2020
A big fall in output, but Switzerland is comparatively well placed The sharp fall in Swiss GDP is Q1 was in line with the general pattern seen in other countries, and Q2 is set to be much worse. However, now that lockdown restrictions have been eased, we …
3rd June 2020
The gradual recovery is underway The partial recoveries in the manufacturing PMIs in May offer encouragement that activity is recovering now that lockdowns have been eased. (See Chart 1.) The small pick-up in the Swiss manufacturing PMI in May, from 40.7 …
2nd June 2020
Falling core inflation increases pressure on the Riksbank While the Riksbank will look through the energy-driven plunge in headline inflation in April, the further fall in underlying price pressures will be harder to ignore. All told, while policymakers’ …
13th May 2020
Norges Bank to look through pick-up in core inflation The food-driven jump in the core inflation rate in Norway in April will not trouble the Norges Bank. With the economy facing a slow recovery, a prolonged period of record low interest rates is on the …
11th May 2020
Q1 data underplay scale of economic disruption in Sweden The comparatively small fall in Swedish GDP in Q1 appears to owe as much to a strong January and February as Sweden’s lighter-touch lockdown. Accordingly, today’s data underplay the scale of the …
5th May 2020
Sweden’s light-touch lockdown offers limited solace for industry While Sweden’s less stringent lockdown has received a lot of attention, today’s data add to the evidence that economic activity there has not fared much better than elsewhere in Europe. The …
4th May 2020
Barometer underplays scale of economic damage Despite registering its largest monthly fall on record in April, the KOF Economic Barometer appears to underplay the havoc that has been wreaked on the Swiss economy. While the government has begun to ease the …
30th April 2020
Core inflation set to fall even further below target While the decline in headline inflation in Sweden in March owed much to lower energy prices, persistently below-target core price pressures and the virus-related economic slump opens the door to further …
15th April 2020