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More ammunition for the Riksbank’s hawks The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in December will embolden the hawks at the Riksbank. While we expect energy effects will drop out this year, continued supply-chain problems and rising inflation expectations …
14th January 2022
More ammunition for Norges Bank to press on with rate hikes While Norwegian policymakers do not have as laser-like a focus on consumer price inflation as most, the increase in the core rate in Norway in December only lends support to our hawkish view that …
10th January 2022
Riksbank looking increasingly behind the curve The resilience of the ETI in December underlines that the Swedish economy is comparatively well-placed going into 2022. All told, the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its so-far dovish stance is building. …
21st December 2021
More fodder for the Riksbank’s hawks The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in November strengthens the hand of the hawks at the Riksbank and supports our view that policymakers will reduce the size of the balance sheet next year. But with energy effects …
14th December 2021
Energy effects to subside next year Headline inflation reached a 13-year high in November, mainly driven by energy inflation. But the core rate was more subdued and is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target throughout 2022. The rise in headline …
10th December 2021
Swiss inflation at its peak Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next to no chance of the SNB …
1st December 2021
Something, at last, for the Riksbank to ponder CPIF inflation rose to a 15-year high in October, although the headline rate was just half that reached in the US, for example, and the core rate remained below 2%. Policymakers won’t be losing sleep just …
15th November 2021
Subdued core inflation will not deter the Norges Bank The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with …
10th November 2021
Swiss inflation close to its peak at 1.2% Inflation did surprise on the upside in Switzerland in October, but only by a trivial amount, leaving the headline rate at just over 1%. The market is pricing in an increase in policy rates to zero by end-2023 but …
2nd November 2021
A strong start to Q4 While many economies in Europe are facing the twin headwinds of supply constraints and high gas prices, the KOF Economic Barometer in October suggests that the Swiss economy continued to grow strongly at the start of Q4. The slight …
29th October 2021
Strong Q3 but supply chain pressures building The stronger-than-expected growth in Swedish GDP in Q3 shows that the recovery continued apace over the summer, lifting activity even further above its pre-pandemic level. But while business confidence …
28th October 2021
Core inflation to stay moderate While CPIF inflation in Sweden rose to a 155-month (!) high in September, we expect core inflation to remain at a more moderate level over the coming years, and lower than in the US, say. As a result, we forecast the …
14th October 2021
Weak core inflation will not prevent December rate hike There was nothing in today’s release of Norwegian inflation data for September to overly trouble the Norges Bank, or cause it to deviate from its stated intention to raise interest rates again in …
11th October 2021
Switzerland didn’t get the “inflation surprise” memo Inflation is a rare beast in Switzerland at the best of times and the lower-than-expected September print means that we now doubt it will even breach 1% this year. Against this backdrop, the stage is …
4th October 2021
Industrial activity so far holding up in face of global constraints The set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for September suggest that industrial activity has so far been pretty resilient in the face of global supply-chain …
1st October 2021
Stronger inflation to change the conversation at the Riksbank The stronger-than-expected pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in August ups the ante for the Riksbank ahead of next week’s policy meeting. While repo rate hikes are low down on policymakers’ …
14th September 2021
Weak core inflation will not prevent tightening cycle start The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell for the fifth month in a row in August, and is likely to remain steady at about half the Bank’s target rate over the next six …
10th September 2021
Post-pandemic recovery phase nearly over Data released this morning show that Swiss GDP is on track to re-gain its pre-pandemic level in Q3 and that inflation is creeping higher. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is not as rosy as it was. Inflation is …
2nd September 2021
Swedish GDP (officially!) above pre-virus level and growth to pick up in Q3 The release of GDP data from Sweden this morning confirmed that the economy surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2, and we expect output to make further gains in Q3. The 0.9% q/q …
27th August 2021
Norwegian economy re-gained pre-virus peak in June The release of Q2 GDP data from Norway this morning confirmed that the mainland economy came within a whisker of re-gaining its pre-virus level in June. Growth is set to accelerate in Q3. The 1.4% q/q …
20th August 2021
Small rise in inflation will leave the Riksbank unfazed The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the …
13th August 2021
Below-target core inflation will not prevent September rate hike The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given …
10th August 2021
Re-opening inflation peak appears to have passed While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. The slight pick-up in …
2nd August 2021
Swedish GDP growth set to accelerate further in Q3 The 0.9% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 was a touch weaker than our forecast (+1.0%) but stronger than the consensus (+0.7%). While the best of the rebound in the industrial sector may be behind us, …
29th July 2021
Decline in inflation will reassure Riksbank The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy inflation …
14th July 2021
Subdued core inflation will not prevent September rate hike The small increase in headline CPI inflation and small decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation will make no difference to the immediate outlook for monetary policy, not least …
9th July 2021
Norwegian economy back in business The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus level in June. The …
7th July 2021
Underlying inflation subdued Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we still think that the Norges …
10th June 2021
Rising inflation won’t faze the SNB Inflation in Switzerland is likely to keep climbing over the coming months, but we still expect it to fall back next year. So the SNB looks set to keep interest rates on hold for a very long time. The rise in headline …
7th June 2021
Swiss economy already putting weak start to 2021 behind it Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2. The …
1st June 2021
Energy-driven boost to inflation to prove temporary The energy-driven increase in Swedish inflation in April is likely to be temporary and will not trouble the Riksbank (even as bicycle prices keep on climbing). That said, house price inflation is likely …
12th May 2021
Tough start to the year, but outlook brightening The weaker-than-expected 1.0% q/q decrease in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy slipped behind its Swedish counterpart at the start of the year, and suggests that it is now unlikely to …
Exchange rate effects mask pockets of home-grown price pressures Exchange rate effects pulled Norway’s core inflation rate back down to target in April, and will continue to exert downward pressure over the coming months. However, pockets of home-grown …
10th May 2021
End to deflation won’t faze the SNB April marked the end of the recent bout of deflation in Switzerland, and the headline rate is likely to climb higher over the coming months. Meanwhile, further confirmation that the Swedish economy is firing on all …
5th May 2021
Economy came roaring out the blocks, and is getting into its stride The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish GDP in Q1 means that the economy has already largely regained its pre-virus peak. Meanwhile, the jump in the ETI in April suggests that the …
29th April 2021
Nearing the Riksbank’s target Swedish inflation rose closer to the Riksbank’s 2% target in March, in line with expectations. As it should only breach the target temporarily, we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate on hold for the …
14th April 2021
Persistently above-target inflation to pave way for rate hikes The fact that core inflation in Norway came in above target for the fifteenth month in a row in March came as no surprise. However, it underlines that the Norges Bank is in a very different …
9th April 2021
Economy started 2021 on the front foot Monthly GDP data from Sweden for February indicate that output it is all but certain to have expanded in Q1. The recent surge in virus cases casts a cloud on the government’s plans to ease restrictions again soon, …
8th April 2021
Looming pick-up in inflation won’t faze the SNB Swiss inflation looks set to continue its upward trend over the coming months, but with temporary factors likely to fade in H2, and underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker, this won’t change …
1st April 2021
Ending Q1 on the front foot The latest business surveys indicate that Sweden and Switzerland ended Q1 on strong footings, helped by buoyant conditions in their manufacturing sectors. The rise in Sweden’s ETI in March, from 103.8 in February to 105.3, …
30th March 2021
Unlikely to rise much further Swedish inflation came in weaker than expected in February, and we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate on hold for the foreseeable future. The fall in the headline CPIF inflation rate in February, from 1.7% …
15th March 2021
Core inflation to fall but remain high Core inflation in Norway came in above target again in February, and while we expect it to fall in the coming months, home-grown price pressures should support the rate later in the year as activity picks up pace. …
10th March 2021
Norway well placed, despite weak patch The latest tightening of virus-related restrictions in Norway will weigh on domestic activity in the near term. However, Norway remains comparatively well placed, and we expect the Norges Bank to be the first major …
9th March 2021
Looming pick-up in inflation won’t faze the SNB Swiss inflation surprised on the downside in February, but temporary forces look set to push it higher over the coming months. However, with underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker, the SNB …
3rd March 2021
Industry in top gear, as supply constraints come into view The strong set of manufacturing PMIs for February indicates that industry remains in rude health. That said, as elsewhere, there are signs of supply problems and rising price pressures. The …
1st March 2021
Activity proving resilient to lockdown The 0.3% q/q expansion in Swiss GDP in Q4 was slightly better than expected and means that output was just 1.6% smaller than in Q4 2019. (See Chart 1.) Tighter virus-related restrictions and a renewed slump in the …
26th February 2021
Rising above target, but only temporarily Swedish inflation rose sharply, as expected, in January and is set rise above the Riksbank’s 2% target in Q2. In any case, policymakers have signalled that they will look through any temporary breach of the …
18th February 2021
Comparatively well-placed The slightly smaller-than-expected 0.6% q/q increase in Danish GDP in Q4 left the economy 3.1% smaller than it was in Q4 2019. (See Chart 1.) Although activity is likely to slow in Q1 – on the back of tighter virus restrictions …
15th February 2021
Norway still better placed than most The larger-than-expected increase in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q4 confirms that Norway is faring much better than its European peers. Activity is likely to have weakened at the start of 2021, but higher oil prices and …
12th February 2021
Norwegian core inflation to fall back to target Core Norwegian inflation edged down in January and will continue to fall back this year as the inflationary boost from previous krone weakness fades. The Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise interest …
10th February 2021