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This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and a chart of the key data. Softer Gulf PMIs, but non-oil activity holding up well July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in …
3rd August 2023
This webpage has been updated with an additional chart and table of key figures. Kingdom enters a recession on back of oil production cuts Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output …
31st July 2023
Gulf non-oil sectors lost steam at the end of 2022 December’s PMIs suggest that non-oil sectors across the Gulf lost some steam at the end of 2022, with the worsening global backdrop weighing particularly heavily on the UAE. Elsewhere, there were signs …
4th January 2023
Inflation hits a four-year high and will climb higher This publication has been updated with further analysis, as well as a chart and table of key data. The acceleration in Egypt’s CPI inflation rate from 15.0% y/y in September to a four-year high of …
10th November 2022
Another robust quarter, but sharp slowdown on the cards Saudi Arabia’s economy posted a strong 2.6% q/q expansion in Q3, driven in large part by rising oil output. The subsequent OPEC+ cuts mean that that boost will fade over the coming quarters and we …
31st October 2022
Inflation now at (or near) a peak Saudi inflation edged up to 3.1% y/y in September largely due to stronger food and housing inflation, but we think that the headline rate has now peaked and will drop back over the coming months and into early 2023. If …
13th October 2022
Inflation rises to four-year high, adding fuel to calls for rate hikes Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.0% y/y in September, its fastest pace in nearly four years as the impact of the falls in the pound fed through. Inflation will accelerate …
10th October 2022
Saudi Arabia continues to lead the way as Egypt struggles The batch of PMIs for September continued to paint a picture of economic divergence between the Gulf economies and the rest of the Middle East and North Africa. With fiscal policy set to be …
4th October 2022
Inflation strongest in over a year, but probably at its peak Saudi inflation rose to 3.0% y/y in August largely on the back of stronger non-food inflation, but we think that the headline rate is close to its peak and will slow over the rest of this year …
15th September 2022
Weaker pound pushing up inflation; CBE waits in wings to hike rates Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a …
8th September 2022
Gulf economies continue to lead the way August’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in the Gulf economies pulled further ahead of their non-Gulf counterparts even as external demand has weakened on the back of softer global growth. Meanwhile, there were …
5th September 2022
Inflation rises, but will soon drop back Saudi inflation picked up to 2.7% y/y in July due to strengthening underlying price pressures, but we think that it is now at or close to a peak and will gradually fall back over the rest of this year and next. If …
15th August 2022
Weaker pound to push inflation higher; further rate hikes on the cards Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to a three-year high of 13.6% y/y in July and we think it will remain above the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) target range until early 2024. …
10th August 2022
Gulf economies continue to lead the way July’s batch of PMIs were a mixed bag, but the readings reinforce our view that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf remains strong. Meanwhile, there were further signs that price pressures are easing. In Saudi …
3rd August 2022
Rise in inflation has a little further to go Saudi inflation rose a touch in June, to 2.3% y/y, on the back of higher food inflation. While we think that the headline rate will drift higher over the next couple of months months, it is unlikely to reach …
14th July 2022
Inflation to rise further and more monetary tightening on the cards Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for the first time since November to 13.2% y/y in June, but inflation will remain above the upper bound of the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) …
7th July 2022
Gulf non-hydrocarbon sectors on the up June’s PMIs were the proverbial mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that activity in the Gulf economies has remained robust and there are signs that firms are increasingly passing on higher costs to customers. In …
5th July 2022
Inflation to drift higher but not for long Saudi inflation edged down to 2.2% y/y in May as food and transport inflation slowed last month, and, while we think that the headline rate will drift higher over the coming months, it is unlikely to reach the …
15th June 2022
Inflation to rise further and more monetary tightening on the cards Egypt’s headline inflation rose to a three-year high of 13.5% y/y in May as the lagged effects from the devaluation of the pound in March continued to push up non-food inflation. …
9th June 2022
Inflation leaps, further interest rate hikes beckon Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-three year high of 13.1% y/y in April on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and effects of the devaluation of the pound. Inflation will …
10th May 2022
Regional divergence grows April’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a loss of momentum at the start of Q2 but continued to highlight the growing divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies as a result of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine. In …
9th May 2022
Fastest growth in a decade sets up a strong 2022 Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by a robust 2.2% q/q in the first quarter of the year, which translated into year-on-year growth of 9.6% – the fastest pace recorded since 2011. With oil production to …
3rd May 2022
Inflation to drift higher Saudi inflation rose to 2.0% y/y in March on the back of stronger food and transport prices, and we think it will continue to strengthen over the coming months and peak at around 2.5% y/y in Q3. Data released today showed that …
14th April 2022
Regional divergence widens on back of war in Ukraine March’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag but further highlighted that the spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. In Saudi …
5th April 2022
Inflation to increase further Saudi inflation rose to 1.6% y/y in February, and we think that it will continue to strengthen over the coming months on the back of increasing food prices, peaking at around 2.5% y/y in Q3. Data released this morning showed …
15th March 2022
Jump in inflation to prompt rate hike Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed to a near three-year high of 8.8% y/y in February and it will continue to increase over the coming months on the back of soaring global food and energy prices, as well as the …
10th March 2022
Non-hydrocarbon sector recoveries get back on track February’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf rebounded after the short-lived disruption from the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies are …
3rd March 2022
Inflation to drift upwards Saudi inflation stabilised at 1.2% y/y in January and, while we think it will increase over the coming months, it is likely to hover around 1.0-1.5% over the rest of 2022 and 2023. Data released this morning showed that Saudi …
15th February 2022
Saudi ends the year on a strong note; Egyptian inflation jumps Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.6% q/q in the final quarter of 2021 and we think rising oil production will drive above-consensus growth this year. Elsewhere, Egypt’s …
10th February 2022
Recoveries take a knock as Omicron restrictions bite January’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of this year as governments tightened restrictions to tackle fresh Omicron-driven virus …
3rd February 2022
Inflation to rise a little further Saudi inflation edged up to 1.2% y/y in December and we think that the headline rate will drift a little higher over the first half of this year before stabilising at around 1.0-1.5% over the rest of 2022 and 2023. Data …
13th January 2022
Inflation to drift higher, rate hikes coming on to the agenda Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 5.9% y/y in December and it is likely to increase further over the coming months, peaking around the mid-point of the central bank’s target range in Q2. …
10th January 2022
Inflation to pick up a little further Saudi inflation rose to 1.1% y/y in November, and is likely to increase further through the first half of next year. Even so, we expect price pressures to remain subdued, at 1.0-2.0% over the course of 2022-23, …
15th December 2021
Inflation drops, although CBE won’t ease policy yet Egypt’s headline inflation rate dropped to 5.6% y/y in November and, while we think inflation will rise in the coming months, it is likely to be at the lower end of the central bank’s 7±2% target range …
9th December 2021
Inflation to drift higher, but remain subdued Saudi inflation edged higher to 0.8% y/y in October and will probably continue to drift upwards over the coming months. Overall, though, we expect price pressures to remain subdued, at 1.0-2.0% over the course …
15th November 2021
Inflation to remain elevated over the coming months Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.3% y/y in October and is likely to remain around 6.0-6.5% over the rest of this year and in early 2022. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of …
10th November 2021
Oil sector fuelling the Kingdom’s recovery The Saudi economy expanded by 5.8% q/q in Q3, the fastest pace of growth in over a decade, as the ramping up of oil production drove the recovery. As OPEC+ continues to raise production quotas, remaining virus …
9th November 2021
Gulf non-oil sectors ending the year on a strong note October’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf strengthened, particularly in the UAE as the Expo got underway this month. But price pressures are …
3rd November 2021
Inflation to edge higher Saudi inflation rose to 0.6% y/y in September and is likely to drift a little higher over the rest of this year. However, we do not envisage a significant pick up in the headline rate and inflation is likely to remain around …
14th October 2021
Non-oil sector recoveries in Saudi and Qatar surge ahead September’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon private sectors in Saudi Arabia and Qatar gathered pace as domestic activity strengthened on the back of easing …
5th October 2021
Inflation set to remain subdued Saudi inflation edged down to 0.3% y/y in August and is likely to remain around this level over the coming months. We think that inflation will pick up to 1.0-1.5% y/y in 2022-23, although the possibility of a VAT cut …
15th September 2021
CBE to keep rates on hold as inflation rises further Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 5.7% y/y in August, the fastest pace recorded since April last year, and looks set to increase further over then next couple of months. Against this backdrop, we …
9th September 2021
CBE to keep rates on hold for now as inflation moves back within target Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to an eight-month high in July and is likely to drift higher over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of Egypt …
10th August 2021
Recovery picking up the pace The 1.1% q/q expansion in Saudi Arabia’s GDP in Q2 was driven by the unwinding of the voluntary oil output cuts and the easing of virus-related restrictions supported domestic activity. With the OPEC+ impasse now resolved oil …
9th August 2021
Non-oil sectors set to experience a stronger second half of the year July’s whole economy PMIs painted a mixed picture with recoveries in Qatar and the UAE’s non-oil sectors picking up pace, while those in Egypt and Saudi Arabia softening. Strong vaccine …
3rd August 2021
Inflation set to fall sharply in July Saudi inflation rose to 6.2% y/y in June but it will fall sharply in July to around 1.0 y/y as the effects of last year’s VAT hike fall out of the annual price comparison. Inflation is likely to hover around 1.0-1.5% …
15th July 2021
CBE to keep rates on hold for now as inflation drifts higher Egypt’s headline inflation rate edged up to 4.9% y/y in June and is likely to increase further over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will keep …
8th July 2021
Gulf non-oil sectors set for stronger recovery over H2 June’s whole economy PMIs for the Gulf were a mixed bag, although one common thread was that weaker external demand offset a pick up in domestic demand. Strong vaccine rollouts mean that most virus …
5th July 2021
Rise in inflation to be short-lived The rise in Saudi inflation to 5.7% y/y in May is likely to be followed by another increase in June, but the headline rate will fall sharply in July to around 1.0-1.5% y/y as the effects of last year’s VAT hike fade. …
15th June 2021
Inflation rises, but rate cuts are coming Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 4.8% y/y in May, the fastest pace recorded so far this year. But it remained below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range, supporting our view that …
10th June 2021
