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The coronavirus has spread rapidly throughout the Middle East and North Africa in recent weeks and has prompted governments across the region to impose increasingly draconian containment measures. These measures, along with the collapse in oil prices, …
27th March 2020
The past month has brought more bad news on Dubai’s economy. Markit’s Dubai PMI hit a four-year low in January and efforts to contain the coronavirus pose a threat to the Emirate’s transport and tourism sectors. And the real estate sector remains in the …
25th February 2020
Fiscal plans announced across the Gulf over the past month suggest that governments will keep policy tight, a key reason why we think that economic growth will disappoint this year. The Saudi 2020 budget outlined that expenditure would be cut by nearly …
29th January 2020
Political developments across Algeria, Tunisia and Lebanon threaten to exacerbate already-poor balance of payments positions. Presidential elections that took place in Algeria last week don’t appear to have appeased protestors, who are no doubt …
17th December 2019
Preparations for the public listing of Saudi state oil company, Aramco, have stepped up a gear this month but the signs are that it is unlikely to be the blockbuster sale that the Kingdom once hoped for. When plans for the listing were first mooted in …
25th November 2019
The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Lebanon were all …
29th October 2019
Events this month have highlighted the risks posed by politics to the region’s two largest economies. While Saudi Arabia initially suspended around half of its daily oil output following attacks on its oil facilities, it looks like there won’t be any …
30th September 2019
The latest data suggest that GDP growth in the Gulf economies slowed in Q2, which is partly a result of cuts in oil production but also softer activity in non-oil sectors. The early data for July, such as the whole economy PMIs, point to even weaker …
15th August 2019
Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed at the start of this year and we think that further weakness lies in store. Figures released in the past month showed that economic growth slumped from 3.6% y/y in Q4 2018 to 1.7% y/y in Q1 2019. OPEC’s decision to extend its …
24th July 2019
The past month has been dominated by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and the risk of an outright conflict is rising. Admittedly, President Trump decided to call off airstrikes on Iran in response to the downing of a US drone by Iranian …
26th June 2019