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Further fall in inflation strengthens case for August rate cut The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.8% y/y, makes an interest rate cut at the central bank’s next policy meeting on 15 th August increasingly likely. …
24th July 2019
Inflation falls, rate cuts coming The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.3% y/y in the middle of July surely seals the deal on a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week. Moreover, with underlying price pressures weak, policymakers are likely to be able to …
23rd July 2019
Production collapse strengthens case for August rate cut The much larger-than-expected drop in Mexican industrial production, of 2.1% m/m, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy, and is likely to push the central bank towards cutting interest rates …
12th July 2019
Inflation back below target opens door to easing The sharp drop in Brazilian inflation to 3.4% in June, which took it below the central bank’s target, suggests that policymakers will soon start to ease monetary policy. Barring any major hiccups with the …
10th July 2019
Inflation now falling sharply The large drop in Mexican inflation, from 4.3% y/y in May to 3.9% y/y in June, is likely to be followed by another sizeable fall this month. That should see Banxico inch further towards interest rate cuts, with an easing …
9th July 2019
Slipping into recession The fall in Brazilian industrial production in May, of 0.2% m/m, adds to the evidence that the economy fell into a technical recession in Q2. With inflation also easing, an interest rate cut seems likely as soon as the Copom …
2nd July 2019
Inflation drop and newsflow on pensions tips balance towards July cut The sharp fall in Brazilian mid-month inflation, from 4.9% y/y in May to 3.8% y/y in June, coming alongside positive newsflow surrounding pension reform, tips the balance towards a 25bp …
25th June 2019