Filtered by Subscriptions: Latin America Economics Use setting Latin America Economics
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Inflation rise likely to take larger rate cuts off the table The jump in Brazilian inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.2% y/y in the middle of the month (and the prospect of …
25th August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky services inflation to keep Banxico on the sidelines for now Mexico’s headline inflation rate declined further in the first half of August, but sticky services inflation …
24th August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Fall in GDP will sustain central bank’s dovish turn Chile’s GDP contracted by a shallower-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q2, but the fall in output alongside downwards revisions to …
18th August 2023
Entering a period of weakness The larger-than-expected 1.0% q/q contraction in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be followed by further weakness over the coming quarters. We expect this to prompt BanRep to join other central banks in the region in …
15th August 2023
PASO election tips economy deeper into crisis The news just out that Argentina has devalued the peso by around 20% against the dollar (to 350/$) and hiked the policy interest rate by 21%-pts to 118% underscores that the economy is lurching towards an even …
14th August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication Inflation rise means Copom won’t increase the size of rate cuts The jump in Brazilian inflation to a slightly higher-than-expected 4.0% last month won’t stop Copom from lowering …
11th August 2023
Banxico continues to sit on the sidelines Mexico’s central bank chose not to follow its peers in the rest of Latin America and begin an easing cycle, leaving its policy rate unchanged at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting. Concerns about the persistence of …
10th August 2023
Sticky services inflation to keep Banxico in hawkish mood Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to drop back in July, to 4.8% y/y, but with services inflation proving to be sticky, we doubt that Banxico will turn to interest rate cuts until the turn …
9th August 2023
BCB kicks off Brazil’s easing cycle The Brazilian central bank (BCB) started its easing cycle today with a larger-than-expected 50bp cut in the Selic rate, to 13.25%, and the relatively dovish tone of the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers’ …
2nd August 2023
This page has b een updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economy showed signs of resilience in Q2 The slightly better-than-expected 0.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in June indicates that the sector grew a little …
1st August 2023
Strength seen in H2 unlikely to continue The 0.9% q/q rise in Mexican GDP last quarter followed a strong Q1 and showed that Mexico’s economy was more resilient in the first half of the year than we’d expected. That said, we think that weaker growth in the …
31st July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Soft inflation print brings 50bp rate cut into play The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others …
25th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Fresh rise in services inflation likely to raise concerns at Banxico Mexico’s headline inflation rate eased further in the first half of July but the fresh rise in services …
24th July 2023
Industry now fully recovered from March drop The stronger-than-expected 1.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in May means that the sector has now reversed all of the decline in output recorded in March. And more timely indicators point to a …
12th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation plunge seals the deal on an August rate cut The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.2% y/y last month makes it almost certain that the central bank will kick …
11th July 2023
Fall in Chilean inflation paves the way for start of easing cycle later this month The larger-than-expected decline in inflation in Chile to an 18-month low of 7.6% in June seals the deal on an interest cut at the central bank’s next meeting later this …
7th July 2023
Industry struggling in Q2 The weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partly reverses April’s 0.6% m/m decline and suggests that industry remained weak over the course of the second quarter. At the margin, this …
4th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Easing cycle to kick off in August The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.4% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with the surprisingly dovish tilt on Copom shown in …
27th June 2023
Banxico stands pat as inflation drifts lower The further falls in headline and core inflation in recent months prompted Mexico’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting, but we doubt that monetary loosening will be …
22nd June 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data. Falling inflation to keep Banxico on hold later today The further decline in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.2% y/y in the first half of June will comfort policymakers at Banxico and …
Industry struggling to sustain momentum from early 2023 Mexico’s industrial sector expanded by 0.4% m/m in April but this only partially reversed a sharp decline in March and suggests that the economy is struggling to sustain its momentum at the start of …
9th June 2023
Inflation drops, but rate cuts still some time away Headline inflation in Mexico dropped to a 21-month low of 5.8% y/y in May and will continue to decline over the coming months. That said, the strong labour market and rapid wage growth mean that …
8th June 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data Inflation hits multi-year low, but rate cuts still some way off The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.9% y/y in May, alongside the government’s new fiscal framework, has strengthened the …
7th June 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data Inflation shows broader signs of easing The surprise fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.1% y/y in the first half of May, coming alongside this week’s approval of the new fiscal framework in …
25th May 2023
Monetary policy to be kept tight despite falls in inflation Mexico’s headline inflation rate fell to a 20-month low of 6.0%y/y in the first half of May and is set to drop further over the coming months. That said, strong wage growth will keep inflation …
24th May 2023
This webpage has been updated with a Table and Chart of the key figures. Stronger services inflation to keep Banxico tightening Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped back by more than expected, to 7.1% y/y, in the first half of March but the further …
23rd March 2023
Banxico hikes by 50bp, and flags another increase Mexico’s central bank delivered a larger-than-expected 50bp interest rate hike, to 11.00%, today most probably because the recent uptick in services inflation spooked the Board. Another rate hike (probably …
9th February 2023
Banxico delivers smaller 50bp dose of tightening, end of cycle close Mexico’s central bank slowed down the pace of tightening with a 50bp interest rate hike, to 10.50%, today and the accompanying statement made clear that the tightening cycle will soon …
15th December 2022
Another 75bp hike, but end of tightening cycle on the horizon Mexico’s central bank delivered a fourth consecutive 75bp interest rate hike, to 10.00%, today but, with inflation now past its peak and the economy likely to slow sharply over the coming …
10th November 2022
