Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Economics Use setting Europe Economics
We expect both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold next Thursday. But while rate hikes by the SNB are many years away, a tightening cycle in Norway is edging closer. Given that the SNB last changed interest rates in …
11th June 2021
The ECB is likely to set the stage next week for a very gradual taper. It will probably end net PEPP purchases next March, but scale up the APP. No big forecast changes likely, but Bank will acknowledge the outlook is brighter. We think the ECB will tweak …
3rd June 2021
The Norges Bank is set to leave rates on hold at zero next Thursday, but the countdown to lift-off is ticking and tighter macroprudential policy to counter momentum in the housing market looms. Having slashed the policy interest rate by 150bps to a record …
29th April 2021
The Riksbank is all but certain to leave its repo rate on hold next Tuesday (27 th April), and will stick to the plan to spend the entire SEK 700 billion asset purchase envelope by the end of the year. The stage is set for a prolonged period of policy …
20th April 2021
Bank will stress that the recent increase in inflation is likely to prove temporary. Lagarde to say many indicators are considered in assessing “financing conditions”. Weekly PEPP purchases and bond yields will be broadly unchanged in coming months. After …
15th April 2021
The Swiss National Bank will have cheered on the recent fall in the franc against the euro. However, policymakers are unlikely to offer up any surprises at the policy announcement next Thursday. Given that the SNB last changed interest rates in January …
18th March 2021
The Norges Bank will probably leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday, but we expect it to adopt a much more hawkish tone than it has up to now. It might also announce a re-tightening of macroprudential policy to try to counter momentum …
11th March 2021
Policymakers will stress that inflation likely to be below target in medium term. Christine Lagarde may make another effort to clarify the ECB’s “reaction function”. We suspect the Bank will ultimately step up PEPP purchases a bit in coming weeks. At next …
4th March 2021
The Riksbank is highly likely to leave its repo rate and other policy settings on hold next Wednesday (10 th February), but we expect it to beef up its asset purchase programme again before long. Recall that the Riksbank left its repo rate unchanged at …
3rd February 2021
Governing Council under no pressure to loosen policy further… …but will commit to keeping financial conditions loose for as long as needed. Main risk is that the lockdowns are extended well into the second quarter. Having adjusted their policy settings in …
14th January 2021
The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday, but there is an outside chance that it could start to re-tighten macroprudential policy to tame the housing market. Having slashed the policy interest rate by …
We do not expect the Swiss National Bank or the Norges Bank to throw up any festive surprises at their final policy announcements of the year next Thursday (17 th December). Vaccines point to brighter times next year, but we still think that both will …
10th December 2020
The Bank will play down the chances of a quick return to economic health. We expect it extend the PEPP until at least mid-2022 and announce more TLTROs. But the Governing Council will probably leave the deposit rate unchanged. Policymakers at the ECB have …
3rd December 2020
The Riksbank is likely to leave its repo rate on hold at zero next Thursday (26 th November). But with the economy heading south, and the ECB gearing up to ease again, we think there is a good chance that policymakers will take the opportunity to expand …
19th November 2020
The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday and will probably reiterate that it is in no rush to hike. However, given the backdrop of rising house prices, we think that policymakers will start to …
29th October 2020
PEPP “envelope” likely to be raised in December, perhaps to €2trillion. ECB may also cut the interest rate charged on TLTROs. A deposit rate cut unlikely unless the euro appreciates further. With the economy flagging again, policymakers at the ECB are …
22nd October 2020
We expect the Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank to both leave their policy settings unchanged next Thursday (24 th September). But while the former will no doubt sound as dovish as ever, Norwegian policymakers will probably further prepare the …
17th September 2020
After a tweak-laden last policy meeting, the Riksbank is likely to maintain the status quo next Tuesday (22 nd September). While there is no burning platform for policy change, we think that the next move in interest rates will eventually be down. Recall …
15th September 2020
No major policy changes on the cards at next week’s Governing Council meeting. Recent developments mean that the ECB will stick firmly to its dovish course. We think the Bank will eventually add to its planned emergency asset purchases. The ECB will not …
3rd September 2020
The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday (20 th August), and we expect it to reiterate that it is in no rush to tighten policy. Having cut its key policy interest rate to a record low of zero at its …
13th August 2020
The ECB is very unlikely to change policy next week... … but we think it will reiterate its willingness to do more if needed… … and, later in the year, expand the PEPP even further. We don’t expect any changes to ECB policy next week, but Christine …
9th July 2020
While we still expect the Riksbank to cut its repo rate back into negative territory later this year, it is set to keep its powder dry at its policy announcement next Wednesday (1 st July). Recall that the Riksbank left its repo rate unchanged at zero …
24th June 2020
The Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank are all but certain to leave their policy settings unchanged at the scheduled announcements next Thursday (18 th June) and for the foreseeable future. Recall that the SNB left interest rates on hold at -0.75% at …
11th June 2020
The ECB is likely to increase the PEPP by a minimum of €500bn next week. Policymakers may also say the PEPP will run until at least mid-2021. We no longer anticipate a further reduction in the deposit rate. Policymakers have signalled their intention to …
28th May 2020
Given the toxic combination of Covid-related disruption and precipitous plunge in oil prices, we think that the Norges Bank’s easing cycle has further to run. Whereas financial markets are pricing in only a small chance of further loosening, we have …
1st May 2020
The €750bn Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme now looks too small. The less EU leaders achieve, the more the ECB will have to do. Further increase in bond purchases very likely, perhaps with explicit yield cap. The ECB has ramped up its asset purchases …
23rd April 2020
Having pulled out all the stops since its last scheduled policy meeting, in February, we suspect that the Riksbank will take stock next week. However, as the focus shifts away from monetary firefighting, we think that the Bank will return to negative …
Amid a raft of rate cuts by other G10 central banks, and the recent plunge in oil prices, we have pencilled in a 50bp rate cut at the Norges Bank’s meeting next Thursday. We expect policymakers to follow up with a further 50bp of cuts in Q2, and the krone …
11th March 2020
The Bank will cut its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in light of the virus. On balance, we think it will reduce its deposit rate by 10bp next week. We also expect the Bank to tweak the terms of its longer-term financing operations. The ECB will …
3rd March 2020
There is no prospect of any change in policy at next week’s meeting… …but we are still forecasting more policy loosening later this year. Details of the scope and timetable of the strategy review may be revealed. At Christine Lagarde’s second meeting as …
16th January 2020
Three months after the September policy package, no change is likely next week. The spotlight on Thursday will be on Ms Lagarde herself, and her policy review. Further ahead, we still expect more ECB easing, prompted by low inflation. With little chance …
5th December 2019
Riksbank and Norges Bank set to leave policy on hold this week. SNB to push the boundaries of policy easing in early 2020. Central bank of Iceland to continue its easing cycle over the coming months. We expect the Riksbank and the Norges Bank to leave …
22nd October 2019
Clashes on Governing Council will cast a shadow over Draghi’s farewell party. No chance of policy action next week, but we think policy will be loosened next year. Forthcoming review to change inflation target and possibly communication strategy. Mario …
17th October 2019
We think the ECB will cut its deposit rate by 10bp and introduce tiering next week. More QE is probably on the way too, but may not be agreed until October. The Bank is also likely to further strengthen its forward guidance. After policymakers spelt out …
5th September 2019
Norges Bank to raise rates in September, but this will be the end of the tightening cycle. It is now a question of when, not if, the SNB cuts rates further into negative territory. Expected dovish shift by the Riksbank will ensure that the krona stays the …
8th August 2019
The ECB is likely to change its forward guidance to signal that a rate cut is coming... … and it might also add an explicit reference to the possibility of re-launching QE. All this would confirm investors’ expectations that looser policy is on the way. …
18th July 2019
