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Surveys still consistent with industrial slowdown in Central Europe The batch of August PMIs released for Central Europe were a reassuring improvement following the plunge in July but remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial output over the …
2nd September 2019
Economy rebounding strongly from recession The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q rise in Turkish GDP in Q2 has prompted us to revise up our 2019 GDP forecast to -0.8% (previously -1.8%). But there’s a growing risk that policymakers’ efforts to turbo-charge …
Growth remained solid in Q3 The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for August suggest that regional growth remained strong in Q3 at a little under 4% y/y. The ESIs rose in six of the ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) …
29th August 2019
Growth remained solid at start of Q3 The batch of Polish activity data for July suggest that strong domestic demand is offsetting weakness in export-led sectors. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth edged just below 4% y/y at the start of Q3. July’s …
22nd August 2019
Economy hits a bump in the road July’s Russia activity data suggest that, after recovering slightly in Q2, the economy may have lost a bit of momentum at the start of Q3. This, combined with easing inflationary pressures, will leave the door open for more …
19th August 2019
Industry collapses, although surveys point to better Q3 The 3.7% m/m fall in Turkish industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP growth in Q2 was much weaker than in Q1. Leading indicators suggest that the scale of the fall in output was …
16th August 2019
Growth likely to slow from here The strength of the Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that domestic demand continued to offset the impact of euro-zone weakness. However, there are signs that soft external demand is set to take a bigger …
14th August 2019
Early signs of a recovery The slightly better-than-expected 0.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1, is likely to be followed by a further improvement in the second half of the year. But growth is still likely to be weaker than most …
12th August 2019
Easing inflation strengthens the case for further rate cuts The decline in Russian inflation to 4.6% y/y last month – coming alongside the stability of the ruble this week – adds weight to our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by a …
6th August 2019
Rise in inflation to be temporary, further large rate cuts still on the cards The rise in Turkish inflation in July is likely to be temporary and followed by chunky falls in the coming months. Accordingly, so long as the lira remains stable, the central …
5th August 2019
PMIs weaken further, hard data to follow suit soon July’s batch of manufacturing PMIs point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output across Central Europe at the start of Q3 . While the hard activity data have so far defied the weak messages painted by …
1st August 2019
Holding up at the start of Q3 The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for July suggest that growth across Central and Eastern Europe held steady at a decent 3.5% y/y or so at the start of Q3. Strength in consumer-facing sectors is, for …
30th July 2019
Growth loses momentum at the end of Q2 June’s weak batch of activity data came after two strong months and suggests that after growing by an impressive 4.7% y/y in Q1, the economy maintained a similar pace in Q2. The biggest disappointment was in the …
19th July 2019
Economy continues to struggle in Q2 June’s activity data suggest that following a weak Q1, Russian GDP growth slowed in Q2. This, combined with soft inflationary pressures, supports our view that the central bank will cut rates next week. Russian monthly …
17th July 2019
Industry rebound suggests economy avoided contraction in Q2 The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production figures for May suggest that the economy may just have avoided a fresh fall in GDP in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect the economic recovery …
12th July 2019
Further fall in inflation likely to prompt a rate cut this month The further fall in Russian inflation to 4.7% y/y last month, coming alongside recent dovish comments from the central bank, has prompted us to pencil in a 25bp rate cut (to 7.25%) at the …
8th July 2019
Plunge in inflation brings rate cuts onto agenda, but all hinges on lira The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.7% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will embark on an easing cycle at its policy meeting later this month. But …
3rd July 2019
Central Europe set for an industrial-sector slowdown June’s PMI data point to a marked slowdown in industrial output growth in Central Europe over the coming quarters. Elsewhere, Turkey’s latest PMI reading suggests that, following a disappointing Q2, …
1st July 2019
ESIs suggest CEE growth remained strong in Q2 June’s set of ESIs suggests that aggregate GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remained at around 4% y/y in Q2. But over the coming quarters, problems in the euro-zone are likely to take a greater …
27th June 2019