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Inflation falls but underlying pressures remain strong The fall in Russian inflation to 5.5% y/y in April was largely driven by base effects that pulled down food inflation as underlying price pressures remained strong. The central bank will continue to …
7th May 2021
Price pressures mount as supply problems bite April’s robust manufacturing PMIs for Czechia and Poland were artificially boosted by longer supplier delivery times and there were further signs that supply chain issues have caused price pressures to build. …
4th May 2021
Temporary setback before strong recovery The 0.3% q/q drop in Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly better than expected and, with authorities now moving to relax virus restrictions, we expect a strong recovery to take hold in the second half of this year. The …
30th April 2021
Record-breaking rise in sentiment, strong recovery to soon take hold The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) recorded their largest ever monthly aggregate improvement across Central and Eastern Europe in April. Sentiment remains below its …
29th April 2021
Polish economy resilient in face of third virus wave Polish industrial production and retail sales data for March were much stronger than expected in light of the third virus wave and recent tightening of containment measures across Europe. The big …
22nd April 2021
Retail and industry diverge, but signs of underlying strength Russian industrial production and retail sales figures showed a marked divergence in growth in March, but the big picture is that activity has picked up recently and that the economy held up …
20th April 2021
Economy losing steam, headwinds intensify Turkey’s activity figures for February suggest that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter of this year and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, combined with the tightening of financial conditions, means …
13th April 2021
Rise in inflation to prompt further rate hikes The further rise in Russia’s headline inflation rate last month, to 5.8% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to follow up March’s interest rate hike with further tightening. We have pencilled in two …
6th April 2021
Holding up through the second wave The improvement in Russian GDP growth to -1.8% y/y in Q4 was driven by a rebound in household consumption and investment and confirms that the economy held up well during the second virus wave. This is likely to continue …
1st April 2021
Supply problems and price pressures continue to build The manufacturing PMIs showed that supply problems intensified in March, and this continued to push up price pressures. While supply disruption also artificially pushed up the headline PMIs, there are …
Sentiment increases in March, but unlikely to last The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) showed an improvement across most of Central and Eastern Europe in March, despite a surge in virus cases across the region. That said, sentiment in Czechia …
30th March 2021
Economy struggling to gain momentum Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for February are consistent with GDP falling by around 4.0% y/y at the start of the year. The economy is struggling to gain momentum and, with the vaccine rollout …
19th March 2021
Industry disruptions and virus waves stall the recovery The latest Polish activity data for February were a little weaker than expected which, combined with the growing headwinds to the industrial sector and the reimposition of virus containment measures, …
Industry going strong The Turkish activity figures for January suggest that the economy held up relatively well despite the tightening of COVID-19 containment measures around the turn of the year. And there are encouraging signs that the rise in interest …
12th March 2021
Acceleration in inflation poses a serious question to the CBR The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to a more than four-year high of 5.7% y/y in February is likely to be followed by another increase in March which poses a serious challenge to …
5th March 2021
Inflation at its peak, but a fresh lira sell-off could prompt rate hikes The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 15.6% y/y in February, is likely to mark the peak and we expect inflation to fall steadily over the next six …
3rd March 2021
Supply problems cause input price pressures to build The manufacturing PMIs for February showed strong increases in output and new export orders in Poland and Russia, while manufacturing conditions deteriorated in Turkey and Czechia. The survey also …
1st March 2021
Recovery faltering at tail end of 2020 Turkey’s economy continued to recover in Q4 2020 and was one of the few economies around the world to grow over last year as a whole. But there are signs that activity faltered at the tail end of the year and this …
Rise in sentiment to be short-lived as third virus waves take hold The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) showed an improvement in sentiment across Central and Eastern Europe in February. A broad-based pick up in services sentiment drove the …
25th February 2021
Industry resilient, but prolonged restrictions hit retail again Polish activity data for January suggest that the economy broadly stagnated at the start of the year as the extension of virus containment measures hit the retail sector while industry …
19th February 2021
Tepid recovery as industry weakens Russian activity data for January show that industry came off the boil at the start of the year while activity in the retail sector picked up strongly. The fall in virus cases and relaxation of some restrictions should …
18th February 2021
Q4 growth beats expectations but slow vaccine rollout clouds outlook The Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that all countries other than Poland grew at the end of 2020. But there was a marked divergence across the region that can be …
16th February 2021
Smaller-than-expected contraction in Q4, Q1 should be better GDP figures show that Poland’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q4, which is likely to have been among the larger falls across Europe. Containment measures are likely to be lifted slowly in a …
12th February 2021
Recovery falters at tail end of 2020 Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for December add to the evidence that the economic recovery slowed sharply at the tail end of 2020. This weakness has almost certainly carried over into this year …
Rising inflation takes rate cuts off the table … for now The further rise in Russian inflation to a near two-year high of 5.2% y/y in January will remove any chance of an interest rate cut in the coming months. The central bank will wait for evidence that …
5th February 2021
Inflation rises again, but further tightening unlikely Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose again in January and may edge up a little further in the next few months, but we think that the central bank has probably done enough to convince investors that …
3rd February 2021
Stronger-than-expected performance in Q4 set to continue into 2021 The surprise 0.3% q/q growth in Czech GDP in Q4 was much better than expected as strength in industry more than offset weakness in services. This suggests that, despite being hit hard by a …
2nd February 2021
Modest decline in GDP, economy looks to have held up well in Q4 The full-year decline in Russian GDP of 3.1% in 2020 suggests that the economy expanded slightly in Q4 as the authorities opted for light-touch containment measures in response to the second …
1st February 2021
Industry resilient in Russia, Turkey and Poland The manufacturing PMIs for January were encouraging in Turkey and Russia and strong export performance continued to support Poland’s manufacturing sector. That said, there are further signs that prolonged …
Figures consistent with relatively modest contraction in Q4 The 2.8% decline in Polish GDP over 2020 was the worst performance since the collapse of communism and is consistent with the economy contracting by around 1.3% q/q in Q4. While prolonged …
29th January 2021
Third virus waves weigh on sentiment across the region The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators were mixed across Central Europe in January but broadly point to a weak start to activity in Q1. The services sector in particular continued to struggle amid …
28th January 2021
Industry booming and retail rebounds as virus restrictions eased Polish activity data for December showed that industry continued to boom and the easing of virus restrictions supported a rebound in retail sales, with the result being that any contraction …
25th January 2021
Recovery still strong in mid-Q4, but will struggle to make more headway Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November indicate that the economic recovery remained strong in the middle of Q4. But more timely indicators suggest that a …
13th January 2021
Sentiment rebounds as virus restrictions ease The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators rebounded strongly in Central Europe in December and suggest that the slump in GDP in Q4 was smaller than we feared. But large virus outbreaks through the winter and …
7th January 2021
Supply chain disruptions intensify as lockdown measures bite The manufacturing PMIs for December provided encouraging signs that output and new orders continued to rise strongly. However, the surveys also provide evidence that supply chain disruptions and …
4th January 2021
Inflation rises further, but further rate hikes seem unlikely The further rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 14.6% y/y in December, is unlikely to be enough to push the central bank (CBRT) towards additional monetary tightening. Even so, with …
Industry boosts activity in November Russian activity data for November suggest that, despite the sharp rise in new COVID-19 cases and tightening of virus restrictions, the economy may come through Q4 suffering only a minor slowdown. Data published this …
18th December 2020
Recovery still strong at start of Q4, but headwinds mounting Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy carried a lot of momentum into the start of Q4 but the recent tightening of virus containment measures, …
14th December 2020
Jump in inflation takes easing off the table … for now The jump in Russian inflation to a 16-month high of 4.4% y/y last month takes the prospect of further interest rate cuts off the table for the next few months at least. That said, with underlying …
4th December 2020
Inflation jumps, raising risk that CBRT is forced to hike rates again Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to …
3rd December 2020
Easing of COVID-19 restrictions in CEE to support industry The manufacturing PMIs for November point to a slowdown in the region but, overall, the sector has held up much better than services. Encouraging signs that Central & Eastern Europe has brought …
1st December 2020
Rapid rebound, but next stage of recovery to be tougher Turkey’s economy recorded a strong 15.6% q/q rebound in Q3 from its collapse in Q2, but lingering weakness in the tourism sector as well as the recent tightening of both virus containment measures …
30th November 2020
Virus restrictions deal a blow to sentiment The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) took a leg down in November and point to the recovery stalling in the middle of Q4. The fall in sentiment was broad-based across the region, though it was much …
27th November 2020
Industry holding up as the recovery in retail goes into reverse October’s batch of Polish activity data showed a marked divergence in the performance of industry and retail that will probably grow in November as lockdown measures bite harder. The recent …
23rd November 2020
Recovery goes into reverse in October Russian activity data for October suggest that the recovery in activity stalled at the start of Q4. With virus restrictions tightening in many regions, the roll out of the vaccine pushed back, and fiscal support …
20th November 2020
An impressive rebound, but the strength will not last for long The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe generally beat expectations and Poland’s economy recovered much faster than elsewhere in the region. But the recent tightening of virus …
13th November 2020
Recovery strong in Q3, but next phase will be tougher Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for September add to the evidence the recovery was strong over Q3, although prolonged weakness in the tourism sector and the recent sharp tightening …
Sharp fall in output followed by a strong rebound The stronger-than-expected improvement in Russian GDP growth to -3.6% y/y in Q3 means that the economy has come through this crisis in better shape than many other EMs. But the recovery lost a lot of steam …
12th November 2020
Weaker ruble feeding into stronger price pressures Russian inflation jumped to 4.0% y/y in October as the weakness in the ruble continued to feed into stronger consumer prices. There’s now a greater chance that inflation peaks at a higher level than we …
6th November 2020
Inflation begins steady rise, adding to pressure on CBRT Turkey’s headline inflation rate edged up to 11.9% y/y in October and is likely to rise further over the coming months. This, combined with the recent sharp falls in the lira, means that the central …
3rd November 2020