Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Europe Economics Use setting Emerging Europe Economics
Better-than-expected Q1, but economy faces strong headwinds Turkey’s activity data for March suggest that the economy held up better than expected in Q1 as a weak lira appears to have supported industry, while policies to preserve households’ purchasing …
13th May 2022
Inflation closes in on 2002 peak Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp increase to 70.0% y/y in April and there’s a strong chance that it moves beyond its peak in the early 2000s in the coming months. Despite this inflation backdrop, a …
5th May 2022
Slowdown in Q1, contraction likely in Q2 The 0.7% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly stronger than expected, although it still marked a slowdown in growth and, in particular, there were signs of weakness at the end of the quarter. We think that …
29th April 2022
Surprising resilience in March, but deeper downturn likely in Q2 The latest activity data for Russia beat expectations in March and suggest that the economy entered a softer downturn than had been expected. We have reservations about the accuracy of the …
27th April 2022
Solid expansion in Q1, but growth to soften this quarter Industrial production and retail sales figures in Poland remained incredibly strong in March and point to a solid expansion in Q1. A lot of this strength is unlikely to last as the effects of the …
22nd April 2022
Industry and retail sales on diverging paths Turkey’s activity data for February point to a growing divergence between industry, which is being supported by a weak lira, and retail sales which continues to struggle in face of the surge in inflation. On …
12th April 2022
Largest monthly increase since the late-1990s The 7.6% m/m rise in consumer prices in Russia in March was the highest monthly increase since the 1990s. It pushed the headline inflation rate up to 16.7% y/y and we think it will rise towards 23% y/y in the …
8th April 2022
Inflation leaps above 60% Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp rise to reach 61.1% y/y in March and it is likely to rise a bit further over the coming months. But there is still little sign that the central bank and, crucially, …
4th April 2022
War in Ukraine takes its first toll on the region’s industry Manufacturing PMIs declined across the region in March amid the war in Ukraine, and with supply chain disruptions and price pressures set to intensify, industry looks set to contract in the …
1st April 2022
War in Ukraine punctures economic sentiment The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators unsurprisingly fell in most countries in March amid the fallout from the war in Ukraine and there were further large increases in price pressures on the back of rising …
30th March 2022
Activity remains strong, but war in Ukraine casts a dark cloud Activity data for February show that Poland’s economy continued to expand strongly at the start of this year but the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on the recovery through a hit to exports, …
21st March 2022
Downturn at the start of 2022 Turkey’s latest activity figures confirm that the economy entered a downturn at the start of this year as the surge in inflation triggered a further drop in retail sales and weaker domestic demand started to weigh on …
11th March 2022
Inflation picks up further with sharp acceleration in sight Russian inflation rose to 9.2% y/y in February and, more importantly, the weekly CPI figures up to 4 th March (also just released) show that the collapse in the ruble led to a particularly sharp …
9th March 2022
Inflation smashes through 50% Turkey’s headline inflation rate leapt again to reach 54.4% y/y in February due to the combination of the lira’s collapse in late-2021 as well as higher domestic energy prices and a large minimum wage hike at the start of …
3rd March 2022
Industry faring well as price pressures ease Manufacturing PMIs in February generally pointed to strong manufacturing conditions in the region, but the escalation of conflict in Ukraine adds to the clear downside risks to industry over the coming months. …
1st March 2022
Robust performance, but downturn likely at start of 2022 Turkey’s economy weathered the initial fallout from the currency crisis well, with GDP rising by 1.5% q/q in Q4 of last year, but a downturn is likely at the start of this year. The Russia-Ukraine …
28th February 2022
Economic activity continued to thrive in January Poland’s economic recovery continued to motor along at the start of this year as industrial production and retail sales growth picked up sharply in January. This came alongside further signs of an …
21st February 2022
Strong rebound in GDP supports case for “higher for longer” interest rates The 4.7% expansion in Russian GDP in 2021 is consistent with a marked acceleration in growth in Q4. We expect the recovery to slow this year but the backdrop of a large and …
18th February 2022
Rapid acceleration bolsters case for interest rate hike Israel’s economic recovery unexpectedly accelerated at the end of last year, with the 16.6% annualised rise in GDP in Q4 pushing it far above its pre-pandemic trend. Alongside the rise in inflation …
16th February 2022
Strong end to Q4 but headwinds will put the brakes on recoveries Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were generally stronger-than-expected as policymakers responded to virus outbreaks with only light-touch restrictions and easing supply …
15th February 2022
Consumer-led sectors drive downturn at end of 2021 Turkey’s latest activity figures suggest that easing supply constraints and the boost to competitiveness from a weak lira supported industry in December, but household spending suffered as the currency’s …
11th February 2022
Inflation continues to rise, another large rate hike incoming The latest data show that Russia’s economy grew strongly in December and that consumer price inflation rose to 8.7% y/y in January. The inflation reading was weaker than expected, but inflation …
9th February 2022
Back to the early 2000s Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose to a stronger-than-expected 48.7% y/y in January due to the effects of the recent collapse in the lira and large hikes to energy tariffs and it is likely to stay close these high rates …
3rd February 2022
Supply disruptions continue to ease but price pressures mount The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing …
1st February 2022
Figures consistent with a strong rebound in Q4 The larger-than-expected 5.7% increase in Polish GDP over 2021 as a whole is consistent with another large expansion in Q4 and meant that the economy recovered faster than most other European economies from …
31st January 2022
Sentiment holds up well at the start of the year The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for January generally showed sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe holding up across all sectors of the economy. With Omicron waves likely to peak in the coming …
28th January 2022
A solid end to 2021 The latest activity data in Poland show that industry expanded strongly in Q4 but that the shine came off the retail sector amid falling consumer sentiment and surging inflation. We think that GDP expanded by around 6.8% y/y (1.1% q/q) …
24th January 2022
Economy solid in November, but crisis to trigger fresh downturn Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November suggest that the economy held up relatively well in the middle of Q4. But the effects of the recent currency crisis are …
13th January 2022
Inflation stabilises, but rate hike cycle not over yet Russian inflation held steady at 8.4% y/y in December, but we think it will rise a bit further this month and prompt the central bank to deliver a final 75bp rate hike, to 9.25%, at its meeting next …
12th January 2022
Industrial sentiment stabilises but restrictions weigh on services sector The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for December showed that the Eastern European economies rebounded last month as Delta virus waves abated, but Central Europe saw further …
7th January 2022
Strong start to Q4, but currency crisis to hit activity before long Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy made a strong start to Q4, but these predate the recent currency crisis and we think the economy …
13th December 2021
Another 75bp hike on the cards next week The rise in Russian inflation to 8.4% y/y last month reinforces our view that the central bank will hike the one-week repo rate by 75bp (to 8.25%) when it meets in December – that’s a larger hike than the current …
8th December 2021
Inflation rises again, set to breach 25% soon The rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 21.3% y/y in November will almost certainly be followed by further chunky increases over the coming months that take it to 25-30% as the effects of the recent …
3rd December 2021
Patchy start to Q4, but risks loom large Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep virus …
1st December 2021
Supply chain disruptions continue to dominate The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be sceptical …
Strong performance, but currency crisis to cause economy to contract in Q4 Turkey’s economy put in another strong performance in Q3 but, as the effects of the recent currency crisis filter through, it is likely to suffer a contraction in Q4. The only …
30th November 2021
Industrial sentiment picks up, but virus outbreaks weigh on services The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being …
29th November 2021
Economy starts Q4 on strong footing The latest data suggest that Poland’s economy started Q4 with solid momentum as industry and retail sales expanded strongly in October. We think that industry will continue to hold up well in the coming months, but …
23rd November 2021
Softer rise in GDP, growth likely to slow further in Q4 The softer-than-expected 4.3% y/y expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery lost momentum during the summer and, with the severe virus outbreak likely to take its toll on domestic …
17th November 2021
Growth slows sharply as the re-opening boost fades in Q3 Israel’s economy slowed much more sharply than expected in Q3 as a shift in consumption habits away from goods and a fading of the re-opening boost to services caused a marked slowdown in …
16th November 2021
Recoveries fading as supply chain disruptions take their toll The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally undershot expectations and suggest that economies entered Q4 with a clear loss of momentum. With supply disruptions set to persist …
Inflation loses its momentum in October The much-weaker-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Israel in October was due to a sharp fall in airfares, but the big picture is that underlying inflation pressures generally remain soft. We don’t think the …
15th November 2021
Another strong rise in GDP, inflation pressures to persist The solid 2.1% q/q rise in Poland’s GDP in Q3 took the economy to almost 3% above its pre-pandemic level, marking one of the strongest recoveries across Europe. But capacity constraints are …
12th November 2021
Another strong performance in Q3, but downside risks mounting Turkey’s activity data for September were the proverbial mixed bag with industrial production falling back but retail sales putting in another robust performance. On balance, the data suggest …
Inflation jump to prompt further 75bp hike The further rise in Russian inflation to 8.1% y/y last month paves the way for the central bank to hike the one-week repo rate by another 75bp (to 8.25%) when it meets in December. The outturn was up from 7.4% …
3rd November 2021
Inflation rises again, but further rate cuts still seem likely Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose further in October to reach 19.9% y/y but the small drop in core inflation and political pressure on the central bank means that further interest rate …
Supply constraints take a greater toll on industry The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have contracted …
1st November 2021
A strong end to Q3, but virus outbreak dampens outlook Russia’s economy enjoyed a strong end to Q3, but the country’s severe COVID-19 outbreak has clouded the outlook more recently and is likely to cause growth to soften in Q4. Russia’s industrial sector …
29th October 2021
Further rise in Polish inflation to prompt another rate hike The rise in Poland’s headline inflation rate to 6.8% y/y in October opens the door for the central bank to deliver a 25bp at next week’s MPC meeting. Elsewhere, Czechia’s economy performed a …
Sentiment softens at the start of Q4 The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October showed that sentiment in industry and services softened across most of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. With rising virus cases adding to existing …
28th October 2021