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The coronavirus has spread across Emerging Europe faster than any other region in the emerging world and governments have implemented increasingly restrictive measures to contain its spread. These measures, combined with the effects of social distancing …
31st March 2020
Concerns about the outbreak of coronavirus have taken their toll on the region’s financial markets over the past month. While the direct trade exposure of Emerging Europe to China is limited and there have been few reported cases of the virus in the …
26th February 2020
Regional GDP growth in Emerging Europe appears to have picked up from 2.2% y/y in Q3 to around 2.5% y/y in Q4. This was predominantly driven by a recovery in Turkey’s economy, where policymakers are pulling out all the stops to support activity. Russia …
29th January 2020
Policymakers in Russia and Turkey have loosened monetary policy more than elsewhere in the emerging world over the past few months, but we think that easing cycles are nearing an end. Communications from Russia’s central bank suggest that, after one more …
17th December 2019
Headline inflation has eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but that was entirely due to falling food and fuel inflation; core price pressures have continued to build. Indeed, core inflation hit multi-year highs in …
28th November 2019
Large interest rate cuts and dovish comments from central banks in Russia and Turkey this month drove rallies in both countries’ local currency bond markets. The yields on sovereign 10-year local currency debt have dropped by 60bp since the start of this …
29th October 2019
The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) shrugged off ongoing troubles in the euro-zone economy for most of 2019 but the latest data offer evidence that this now taking a bigger toll. Industrial production growth in Poland and the Czech Republic …
26th September 2019
Central Europe is one of the few parts of the world where central banks haven’t eased monetary policy recently. Indeed, we think that the focus is likely to remain on tightening, particularly in Poland and Hungary. Inflation is likely to remain above …
28th August 2019
Russia ’s economy remained very soft in Q2, although it does at least seem to have dodged a technical recession – albeit by the skin of its teeth. Much of the weakness seems to be concentrated in the services sector, where slow household income growth and …
23rd July 2019
Recent activity data suggest that recoveries in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have been disappointing. In Russia, where the economy expanded by a meagre 0.5% y/y in Q1, growth hasn’t been much quicker in Q2. And after …
25th June 2019