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Disinflation process largely on track, rate cuts in 2024 Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold as expected today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will keep policy rates unchanged throughout this year. Interest rate cuts are likely to …
10th May 2023
CNB still on pause, but cuts not far away The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, but we think that interest rate cuts are not far away, with policymakers likely to kickstart the loosening cycle in September. …
3rd May 2023
CBR keeps rates on hold, hike still on the table Russia’s central bank maintained its hawkish tone today as it left interest rates unchanged at 7.50% and continued to emphasise pro-inflation risks in the economy. So far these risks do not seem to be …
28th April 2023
Calm before the storm? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its key policy rate on hold at 8.50% again today, but all eyes are now firmly on next month’s election for a possible change in the stance of monetary policy. Polls are close, but an opposition …
27th April 2023
MNB kickstarts loosening cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) slashed the upper end of its interest rate corridor today by 450bp, to 20.50%, and while this move alone won’t affect monetary conditions, it is likely to be followed by cuts to the effective …
25th April 2023
Rates on hold, but cutting by year end Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected again today, at 6.75%, and policymakers look set to keep interest rates at this level at the upcoming meetings. But with inflation likely to …
5th April 2023
Rates on hold, policy to stay tight throughout 2023 Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold as expected today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will only start to cut interest rates in early 2024, which is later than its regional peers. …
4th April 2023
Hawkish CNB will turn to cuts in Q3 The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 7.00%, for a sixth meeting in a row, and we now think that rate cuts are unlikely until the second half of this year. The decision to leave rates …
29th March 2023
MNB to keep rates higher for longer as inflation risks persist Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its benchmark base rate on hold today (at 13.00%) and it is looking increasingly likely that this rate will not be cut until Q4 at the earliest. The phasing …
28th March 2023
CBRT keeps rates on hold after one-off cut in February Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its key policy rate on hold at 8.50% today as policymakers kept monetary conditions loose to support activity after the earthquakes in February. Interest rates are …
23rd March 2023
CBR keeps Q2 rate hike on the table The statement accompanying the Russian central bank’s (CBR’s) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 7.50% stuck to the hawkish script from February. While it didn’t confirm that an interest rate hike is on the …
17th March 2023
Rates on hold, door for rate cuts this year remains open Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected again today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think the NBP will rule out further interest rate hikes just yet. But with inflation …
8th March 2023
MNB to keep its base rate on hold as inflation threat persists Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its benchmark base rate on hold again today (at 13.00%) and, with inflation likely to stay far above target for some time, we don’t expect the MNB to start …
28th February 2023
CBRT eases policy after earthquakes hit Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 50bp, to 8.50%, today as policymakers sought to support the economy in the wake of the devastating earthquakes this month. Another rate cut in March looks …
23rd February 2023
CBR changes the script as inflation risks mount Russia’s central bank (CBR) left rates on hold at 7.50% today but its communications were far more hawkish than expected as it talked about a further build-up of inflation risks and the possibility of hiking …
10th February 2023
Tightening cycle over, but cuts unlikely until 2024 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 7.00%, and we think that its tightening cycle is now over. Even so, interest rate cuts probably won’t arrive until 2024. Today’s …
9th February 2023
Rates unchanged, rate cuts possible by year-end Poland’s central bank (NBP) kept its main policy rate on hold at 6.75% as expected today and, with the economy slowing and inflation near a peak, further hikes are unlikely. We expect the central bank to …
8th February 2023
Dovish pivot coming soon The Czech National Bank (CNB) delivered no surprises in leaving its policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, but we maintain our view that it will cut interest rates a bit more quickly than most others expect. Our current …
2nd February 2023
Interest rate cuts still some way off Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today, at 13.00%, and we don’t think that it will cut its main policy interest rates until late-2023. In the meantime, we expect that the MNB will continue to …
24th January 2023
CBRT continues with policy pause Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its main policy rate unchanged at 9.00% as expected today and our central view is that rates will remain on hold in the coming months. But with inflation now falling sharply and the …
19th January 2023
NBR’s slows tightening again, likely the end of the cycle The 25bp interest rate hike by Romania’s central bank today, to 7.00%, probably brings the hiking cycle to an end. Today’s decision was expected by all analysts, including ourselves. The central …
10th January 2023
Rates on hold, but cuts still some way off Poland’s central bank (NBP) left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% again today. We expect the next move by the NBP will be an interest rate cut , although that is only likely to arrive towards the end of 2023. …
4th January 2023
CBRT on hold … for now Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) stuck to its previous guidance today and left its policy rate on hold, at 9.00%, but there is clearly a risk that President Erdogan forces the CBRT to restart its easing cycle, particularly with the 2023 …
22nd December 2022
Rate cuts to arrive in mid-2023 The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold, at 7.00%, as expected again today and, with inflation set to drop sharply from Q1, we think the CNB will be one of the first EM central banks to cut rates next …
21st December 2022
MNB staying the course as inflation pressures persist Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again at 13.00% and is likely to use its communications later today to reaffirm its commitment to its market stabilisation tools to defend the …
20th December 2022
CBR now set for extended pause Russia’s central bank kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.50% today as it emphasised that inflation risks have become slightly more skewed to the upside. This reinforces our view that the easing cycle is unlikely to …
16th December 2022
Slowing growth keeps the NBP on hold Poland’s central bank (NBP) stuck to its script today as it left interest rates on hold at 6.75% for the third consecutive meeting. With inflation nearing a peak and the economy slowing, we think the tightening cycle …
7th December 2022
CBRT final act? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 150bp interest rate cut, to 9.00%, at today’s meeting and suggested that this marked the end of the easing cycle. We’ll take the CBRT for its word but there is clearly a risk that President …
24th November 2022
MNB hasn’t won its inflation battle yet Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today, at 13.00%, for a second consecutive meeting and reaffirmed that it would continue to use its “market stabilisation” tools to defend the forint. With …
22nd November 2022
Doves take control at the NBP Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that they believe the current …
9th November 2022
NBR’s tightening cycle nearing an end The National Bank of Romania (NBR) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle today, with a 50bp interest rate hike to 6.75%. We think that the tightening cycle is nearing an end, but that interest rates will have …
8th November 2022
Dovish CNB unlikely to tighten further The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold, at 7.00%, for a third consecutive meeting today. With inflation nearing a peak and the economy now contracting, we think rates will be left unchanged over …
3rd November 2022
CBR brings its easing cycle to a halt Russia’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 7.00% today and highlighted the pro-inflationary risks stemming from the recent mobilisation of reservists. That said, we think this is likely to mark a pause in …
28th October 2022
MNB to keep relying on unconventional tools to support the forint Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today and we expect that the central bank will continue to use its new “market stabilisation tools” to keep short-term interest rates …
25th October 2022
CBRT inches further into the unknown Turkey’s central bank stepped up its easing cycle with a 150bp interest rate cut (to 10.50%) today but hinted that the easing cycle will end next month. Even so, policymaking is stretching further into the unknown and …
20th October 2022
NBP now looking through the inflation figures Poland’s central bank (NBP) left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% today, which is a big surprise after data released last week showed a larger-than-expected rise in inflation in September. The accompanying …
5th October 2022
NBR still has a bit more work to do The National Bank of Romania (NBR) hiked its policy rate by 75bp, to 6.25%, at its meeting today. The tightening cycle is likely to slow down but we still expect rates to reach 7.00%, which is slightly higher than most …
Rate cuts on the horizon The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold, at 7.00%, for a second consecutive meeting today. With inflation unlikely to rise much further and the economy on the verge of recession, we think interest rates will …
29th September 2022
CBRT bows to political pressure with another 100bp cut Turkey’s central bank continued to bow to President Erdogan’s wishes today as it delivered another 100bp interest rate cut, to 12.00%, even though inflation breached 80% y/y in August. Further cuts …
22nd September 2022
Easing cycle entering a slower phase The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut the policy rate by a smaller 50bp, to 7.50%, confirms that, having already lowered rates sharply since April, the easing cycle is entering a slower phase. The decision was …
16th September 2022
NBP brings its tightening cycle to a close The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp interest rate hike to 6.75%, and with policymakers seemingly more concerned about the deteriorating economic …
7th September 2022
MNB firmly focused on inflation and the forint Hungary’s central bank (MNB) continued with its aggressive tightening cycle today as it raised its base rate by another 100bp, to 11.75%. It’s clear that the MNB is struggling to contain very strong and …
30th August 2022